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Production, Yield and Area Growth of Major Winter Vegetables of Bangladesh

Sajia Sharmin
Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur-1706, Bangladesh

Sandip Mitra
Department of Agricultural Finance, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh

M. Harun-Ar Rashid
Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Winter vegetable production has increased tremendously in Bangladesh. Excessive supply of vegetables reduces the market price that leads to economic loss at farm level. This study assesses the growth and trend of winter vegetables production, yield and area in Bangladesh. Semi-log regression model was used to assess the growth and trend of winter vegetables while Winston Prais transformation was utilized to solve the autocorrelation problem. Yearly time series data of collected from secondary sources was used for this analysis. Data were collected from 1986–87 to 2015–16 years. Data of some major winter vegetables like tomato, rabi brinjal, rabi pumpkin, water gourd, cauliflower, cabbage, radish, bean, green spinach were collected for this study. Results found that growth of tomato, cauliflower and cabbage production was about 5% which was much higher than other winter vegetables. Growth of cultivated area is about 3% per annum for most of the vegetables. Production of winter vegetables increases because of yield and area growth. Government can attempt to increase export of tomato, cauliflower and cabbage. Moreover, yield growth of green spinach and radish is necessary to increase both production and export.

Keywords: Growth, Trend, Semi-Log Model, Winter vegetables, Bangladesh

Location: Department of Agricultural Economics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur-1706, Bangladesh

Start Date: 00-00-1986

End Date: 00-00-2016

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Vegetables

Objectives:

This study assesses the growth and trend of winter vegetables in Bangladesh. Most cultivated winter vegetables such as tomato, water gourd, cauliflower, cabbage, rabi brinjal, rabi pumpkin, radish, bean, green spinach are considered for this study.

Methodology:

Data A time series data from 1986–87 to 2015–16(30 years) regarding the area, production and yield of major winter vegetables (tomato, rabi brinjal, rabi pumpkin, water gourd, cauliflower, cabbage, radish, bean, green spinach) were collected from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and year book of agricultural statistics. Analytical technique Semi-log trend function was used to find out the trend and estimate the growth rate of area, production and yield of major winter vegetables of Bangladesh. Wald test shows that including variables in quadratic function doesn’t create any improvement to fit of the model. So, linear function is appropriate for this analysis. The model is given below:
ln Z = β0 + β1 X + e
Where Z = dependent variable (area, yield and production); X = time variable; β1= coefficient of trend; ln= natural logarithm; and e = error term. Here, the coefficient of trend (β1) measures the constant proportional or relative change in Z for a given absolute change in the value of the regressor X.
1β = Relative change in regressand/Absolute change in regressor
If 100 multiply the relative change in Z, give the percentage change, or the growth rate, in Z for an absolute change in X, the regressor. That is, 100 times β1gives the growth rate in Z; 100 times β1 is known in the literature as the semi-elasticity of Z with respect to X and gives the instantaneous (at a point in time) rate of growth, to find out the compound (over a period of time) rate of growth, the following formula was applied (Abid et al. 2014).
β1= ln (1+ r)
Whereβ1= Instantaneous rate of growth; ln =Natural logarithm; r = Compound rate of growth. Hence taking antilog of β1, subtract 1from it and multiply the difference by 100, would give compound rate of growth.

Source of Information: J Bangladesh Agril Univ 16(3): 492–502, 2018 ISSN 1810-3030 (Print) 2408-8684 (Online)

Article Link (Online Journal): https://doi.org/10.3329/jbau.v16i3.39447

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Production, yield and area of winter vegetables in Bangladesh had experienced significant growth. Among different vegetables, production growth of tomato, cabbage and cauliflower were the highest. Production of these vegetables increased because of increasing yield and farm area. Moreover, vegetable farming was commercializing day by day. It enhanced the use of new variety and cultivation techniques. Adoption of new variety helps to increase vegetables yield. In addition, yield growth of radish and green spinach was much lower than other winter vegetables. Probably, low market price of radish in winter was the reason of small yield growth. Government can attempt to raise export of tomato, cauliflower and cabbage. Newly introduced variety and cultivation techniques help to increase yield, production and export of all vegetables. Therefore, storage facility and surplus vegetables export increase income and reduce economic loss of farmers.

Knowledge Management: Journal