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Performance of Exporting Shrimps and Dry Fishes from Bangladesh

B. R. Sen*
Department of Economics and Poverty Studies, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Sonapur, Noakhali-3814

T. Islam
Department of Economics and Poverty Studies, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Sonapur, Noakhali3814

K. Alam
Department of Economics and Poverty Studies, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Sonapur, Noakhali-3814

F. Hassan
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

This study shows the present status of exporting shrimps and dry fishes from Bangladesh in the pre-and -post liberalization period, estimates the growth rate and instability of exporting shrimps and dry fishes for earnings, quantity & price for five years. Recent status presents that farming of shrimp and processing of dry fish are increasing over the year. Status of exporting shrimp & dry fish (value, volume & price) are decreasing in recent years compared to previous years. The overall estimated growth of exported shrimp and dry fish (value) were found 19.48% and 16.53% and (volume) were found 11.52% and 12.86%, respectively. On the other hand, overall estimated export growth of shrimp & dry fish (price) were 175.94% and 37.58%, respectively. Instability in shrimp export earnings was found the highest in period I which was 62.16% and the lowest in period II which was 12.56%. Dry fish export instability was the highest for period I which was 128.08% & the lowest percentage was 54.49% in period II. Instability in quantity export of shrimp was found the highest in period I at 63.29% whereas it was 155.92% in period I for dry fish export and the lowest percentage for both were 14.5% & 48.66% in period II, respectively. On the other hand, instability in prices of exported shrimp & dry fish were found the highest in period I which were 25.26% & 140.63%, respectively. The lowest percentage for shrimp in period II which was 11.29% and for dry fish it was 63.56% in period III. It also affects export of shrimp & dry fish from Bangladesh. The circumstances of shrimp & dry fish export demand different institutional supports to enhance the marketing activities and to strengthen the competitive position in the international market with a view to ensuring more contribution to our economy.

Keywords: Growth rate, Instability, Shrimp export, Dry fish export

Location: Department of Economics and Poverty Studies, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Sonapur, Noakhali-3814

Start Date: 00-00-1972

End Date: 00-00-2010

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Market analysis

Objectives:

To estimate the growth rate and instability of earning from shrimp export in post-war, pre- and post-trade liberalization periods of Bangladesh.

Methodology:

The present study was conducted using secondary data on shrimp & dry fish export earnings from Bangladesh during the period of 1972-73 to 2009-10. Data were collected from various publications of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS, from 1972-1973 to 2009-10). This is the only government level institute responsible for collecting and storing necessary data required for future planning and development of the country. In this study, growth rate of shrimp and dry fish export (for both earning and quantity) from Bangladesh has been estimated by fitting exponential function for different periods. Instabilities in shrimp & dry fish export (for both earning and quantity exported) from Bangladesh have been estimated by instability index based on standard deviation of logarithmic change. For forecasting purpose, quantities of and earnings from shrimp & dry fish export from Bangladesh have been estimated by using deterministic models. Analytical procedure The collected data were analyzed using SPSS and Microsoft Excel programmers. Different methods of analysis were employed in accordance with the objectives of the study. Brief description of the analytical techniques is given below:
Measurement of growth rates of shrimp & dry fish export
There are alternative methods by which the growth rate can be calculated for a specified data series. In this study, the growth rates of shrimp & dry fish exports from Bangladesh were estimated by fitting exponential functions. A simple growth model that regressed dependent variable (Y) on time (t) can be presented by the following equation:
Y= ae^bt + u…………………………… (1)
Where, a and b are parameters to be estimated, and e is the natural log. It is necessary to linearize this equation in order to apply the classical regression model. This may be accomplished by taking the log of both sides (David, 1982);

ln Y = ln a + bt + u………………………….(2)
Where, ln Y = Natural log of exports of shrimp or dry fish, t = Time, a = Intercept , b= Coefficient, u = Error (e^b-1)*100 is the compound growth rate in percentage.
The equation is generally used on the consideration that the change in shrimp & dry fish exports in a given year would depend upon the shrimp & dry fish exports in the preceding year. It has a limitation in that it assumes a uniform rate of growth over the entire period under consideration, which may not be true in reality. To study changes in the rate of growth and also in the magnitude of instability, the time period have been divided into different phases in order to calculate the growth rate and to measure instability in ln Y = ln a + bt + u………………………….(2)
Where, ln Y = Natural log of exports of shrimp or dry fish, t = Time, a = Intercept , b= Coefficient, u = Error (eb-1)*100 is the compound growth rate in percentage.
The equation is generally used on the consideration that the change in shrimp & dry fish exports in a given year would depend upon the shrimp & dry fish exports in the preceding year. It has a limitation in that it assumes a uniform rate of growth over the entire period under consideration, which may not be true in reality. To study changes in the rate of growth and also in the magnitude of instability, the time period have been divided into different phases in order to calculate the growth rate and to measure instability in shrimp & dry fish (for value, volume & price) exports from Bangladesh. So, for better understanding, the time period has been divided into different phases as:
(i) Post-war period (1972-73 to 1982-83), (ii) Pre-trade liberalization period (1983-84 to 1992-93), (iii) Post-trade liberalization period (1993-94 to 2009-10), (iv) Overall period (1972-73 to 2009-10). Measurement of instability in shrimp & dry fish exports Instability in export can be defined as the state in which export continue to change with the passage of time. The extent of instability has to be examined in relation to time. The measure of instability/volatility in time series data requires an explicit assumption of what constitute the acceptable and unacceptable components. A systematic component which can be predicted does not constitute instability and hence, it should be eliminated from data. The remaining unpredictable component represents the instability. At first we have to calculate log of export earning, then changes over previous years have to estimate. Finally, standard deviation of the percentage for years was calculated. Average of all standard deviations in a period multiplied by 100 is considered as instability for that period.

Source of Information: J. Bangladesh Agril. Univ. 14(1): 69–74, 2016 ISSN 1810-3030

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Achievement/Findings:

On the basis of findings of the study, it may be concluded that earnings from shrimp and dry fish (value, volume & price) show positive growth per annum during the whole study period. It is also concluded that instability in exports of shrimp and dry fish (value, volume & price) increased in the recent past. The increasing rate in forecasting of shrimp export for future five years is satisfactory. Forecasting of dry fish exports increases but rate of increase is very small. Well developed and systematic export promotion program is needed for shrimp and dry fish exports which will have a significant impact on both agriculture and economic development. By exporting shrimps and dry fishes in the world market, production needs to be increased which in turn can generate domestic demand by opening up employment opportunities. Considering the importance, the present study will undoubtedly be useful for Bangladesh government in policy formulation, planning and developing programs for improving growth of shrimp and dry fish, reducing instability in shrimp and dry fish export and determining the quantity of shrimp and dry fish to be exported from Bangladesh. These empirical findings can be significant source of information for the producers, traders, exporters, policy makers and researchers to build foundation for further research in this sector.

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