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Effect of Temperature Variation on Aman and Boro Rice Production of BARIsal Division in Bangladesh

J Karmokar
Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh

MM Billah
Department of Computer Science and Mathematics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh

MA Haque
Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi 6205, Bangladesh.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

A study was undertaken to study the impact of seasonal temperature variation on Aman and Boro rice production in Barisal division of Bangladesh. The study revealed that the relationship between changing patterns of seasonal mean temperature and yield of rice, which illustrates the average mean temperature for the correlation of time series data from 1958-2008. The regression model is used to analyze the different temperature trends, and to identify the possible factors and causes of these differences. The value of t-statistic for slope and p-value for different regression equations are estimated. Results show that the average maximum temperature is risk increasing for Boro, while it is risk decreasing for Aman for the period of 2006-2008. Besides, minimum temperature is risk increasing for Boro during 1994-2008 but it is risk decreasing for Aman except the year 1998. We observed that the summer temperature has been rising up during the period 1958-1974 and fallen down for 1992-2008. The average annual temperature changes from 0.5⁰C to 1⁰C over the period from 2005 to 2008 which impact on Aman and Boro rice yield. Therefore, the predictive approach provides an outline for future risk of the minimum temperature that has the impact on rice yield than maximum temperature, which can be used for rice production for its better management strategies.

Keywords: Climate change; Rice; Regression model; Temperature

Location: Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Barisal division

Start Date: 00-00-2005

End Date: 00-00-2008

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Non-commodity: Temperature

Objectives:

To contribute the effects of temperature changes on the yield and variability for two main rice crops using panel data.

Methodology:

The temperature data sets used in this work were taken from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). The average daily maximum and minimum temperature data of the last fifty-one years (1958-2008) has been collected from different weather stations located all over the Bangladesh. Also rice production data are collected from the Statistial Office of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). In this study, we analyzed the temperature data in Barisal division of Bangladesh. The location of climatic regions of Bangladesh. These weather stations are situated in the city center of the region. There are many statistical methods for calculating trends such as parametric methods (regression and t- test) and non-parametric methods (Mann-Kendall test). This study we employed regression method and t-test (David et al. 1997; Thomas et al. 1993). The values of t-statistic are estimated for slope and p-value for different regression equations in Barisal division during six Bengali seasons in Bangladesh. First, a linear model was fitted to detect the temperature trend of a regression equation, y = nt + c------ (1), Where ‘m’ is the slope of the trend line, and ‘c’ is the intercept of trend line with y-axis. The coefficient of determination (R²) is a key output of a regression model which interpreted as the proportion of variance in the dependent variable that is predictable from the independent variable. The long-term trend could be inferred from the slopes of these straight lines. Two tailed t-test was applied to test the statistical significance of the trends at 5% significance level. The magnitude of this long term change can also be calculated from this model. The analysis can be divided into three steps such as 1958-1974, 1975-1991 and 1992-2008, respectively to estimate the temperature trends in the growing seasons. The relationship between the seasonal temperature variation and yield are always linear since it has limited effects over these factors.

Source of Information: Progressive Agriculture 30 (1): 95-103, 2019

Article Link (Online Journal): DOI: https://doi.org/10.3329/pa.v30i1.42216

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

In this paper, we have estimated the effects of seasonal temperature variation on rice production based on panel data in Barisal division of Bangladesh. In our estimates, the monthly mean temperature shows a positive trend with respect to time over Barisal division in all the seasons. The average maximum temperature is risk increasing for Boro, while it is risk decreasing for Aman in the period 2006-2008. Besides, minimum temperature is risk increasing for Boro in the period 1994-2008 but it is risk decreasing for Aman except the year 1998. In period 1975-1991, minimum temperature has the positive impact on the winter season but all other seasons have negative impact. Also maximum temperature has the positive impact of all six seasons. The dry season months like December or January might have a greater amount of temperature change around 0.5°C to 0.8°C in 1975-2008. It is evident that the dry winter months in these regions will show relatively more warming in the future. The results suggest that the region wise adaptation policy should be implemented to develop local adaptation policy for reducing yield variability, and ensuring food safety. In the future, district wise effects of climate parameter (i.e. temperature) can be studied instead of the division of the country.

Knowledge Management: Journal