Agricultural Research Management Information System

Home
Research Summary
Search
About Us
- ARMIS
- Brochure
Contact Us
Report
User Request
Data Input
Help
- Operation Manual
  - PDF
  - Video
- Program Area & Commodity
We have reached 37600 number of research entries at this moment.

- Logout

Research Detail

Home
Research
Detail

Production and Price Relationship for Chilli in Bangladesh: an Empirical Analysis

M.K. Hasan
Spices Research Centre, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute Shibganj, Bogra, Bangladesh

M.K. Uddin
Spices Research Centre, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute Shibganj, Bogra, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Chilli price fluctuates more in every year in Bangladesh. Therefore, this crop is faced with the highest risk and uncertainty. Due to that, prediction is not possible on production correctly. The study was conducted to aim at the determination of fluctuation, and production-price relationship of chilli in Bangladesh. The experiment was carried out by using chilli area, production and prices data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (19852014). Data were analyzed using simplest method for fluctuation, and the Koyck model of distributed lag models. The study showed that the extent of annual price fluctuation of chilli was identified which was between -55 to 111 per cent. Ten several causes were identified which have been the reason of unstable price of chilli. Government price control, improvement of production technology and other identified measures are urgently needed for preventing price fluctuation. According to the results, chilli production in Bangladesh has been influenced by the lag value of average price formed in the market. The most striking result of the study is that the time required for the changes in the chilli prices in Bangladesh to have an effect on chilli production is 6.09 years. The value of coefficient indicated that the changes in lag values of the prices had a positive influence on production, this influence was getting smaller. To reduce the risk and uncertainty of the price of chilli which caused fluctuation more, sustainable chilli farming and establishment of an efficient marketing organization is necessity.

Keywords: Chilli, Fluctuation, Price, Production

Location: Bogra, Sirajgong and Gaibandh

Start Date: 00-00-1985

End Date: 00-00-2014

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Chilli

Objectives:

The overall objective of the study is to determine production and price relationship caused by fluctuation of chilli production in Bangladesh. The specific objectives of the study are: 1. To study the fluctuation of price and production of chilli; and 2.To determine the relationship between the prices and production amount of chilli

Methodology:

Sources of data Both primary and secondary data were used for the study. Secondary data were collected from several issues of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and Department of Agricultural Marketing (DAM). For the collection of primary data, three districts namely Bogra, Sirajgong and Gaibandha were selected purposively depending upon the concentration of production and commercially marketing of winter chilli. Sampling design and data collection The study was considered for the time period of 1985 to 2014 for time series analysis. Purposive and simple random sampling techniques were used to pick a primary sample. A total of 92 farmers and traders were selected randomly from the three areas. Primary data were collected by face-to-face interview through pretested structured questionnaires. Analytical technique The collected data and information were reduced to tabular form which included classification of tables into meaningful results. Except this, the following analytical techniques were used for the study. A. Fluctuation in price and production The inter year fluctuation in prices were estimated by the simplest method as percentage change in price year by year.

Source of Information: SAARC J. Agri., 15(1): 85-98 (2017)

Article Link (Online Journal): DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/sja.v15i1.33153

Funding Source:

1.

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The results of the study depicted that a remarkable extent of price and production fluctuation was occurred in chilli. The study identified several causes which have been the reason of unstable price of chilli as change in production swing, climatic condition, lack of storage facilities, seasonal production, poor infrastructures, government regulation, lack of market information, lack of holding capacity of farmers, nature of products and fluctuations of currency exchange rate. The relationship between amount of chilli produced and marketed, and price of chilli, all under domestic market economy conditions, were studied. There was a positive correlation of 70% between amount produced and the price. This coefficient showed that Koyck model was appropriate for studying the relationship between production amount and price of chilli crop. For the chilli crop, it is necessary to conduct a contract based production system. Policies are needed to be developed for efficient, profitable and sustainable chilli farming. Thus, price uncertainties that the producers face can be overcome, and contribution of this major spice crop to national economy can be increased.

Knowledge Management: Journal