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Combat Climate Change Challenges in Considering Climatic Vulnerabilities and Risk Factors for Wheat Production

M. M. Rahman*
Deputy Secretary
Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Bangladesh Secretariat, Dhaka-1000

M. G. Miah
Department of Agro-forestry and Environment, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University (BSMRAU), Gazipur

S. R. Saha
Department of Agro-forestry and Environment, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University (BSMRAU), Gazipur

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The present study was undertaken for assessing the impacts of climate variability on wheat production as well as the field based suggestions opined by the wheat growers to combat the future challenges particularly climate variability during November 2014 to March 2015. The study was conducted at northwest region at Dinajpur sadar and Kaharul upazilas in Dinajpur of Bangladesh. One hundred sixty wheat farmers were selected by using previously pre-tested interview schedules adopting multistage proportionate systematic random sampling technique. Climatic variability was assessed by analysis of long term data of local meteorological station. Assessment of long term climatic data particularly for wheat growing season revealed that minimum temperature has been increased, while maximum temperature and rainfall were decreased. Farmer’s opinions on these aspects were almost similar. Farmers opined that both surface and ground water levels have been decreased, resulting agricultural drought. Farmer’s also opined regarding suitable technology to combat climate change impact on wheat production revealed the use of newly recommended varieties. Finally, the outcome of the results could help researchers as well as government and NGOs to take appropriate climate change adaptation policy thus facilitating farmers in sustaining their livelihoods against changing climate in the near future of Northwest region in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Climate variability, Rainfall, Drought, Surface and ground water availability, Wheat cultivation, Northwest region of Bangladesh

Location: Two upazilas namely, Dinajpur sadar and Kaharul under Dinajpur district of Bangladesh

Start Date: 00-11-2014

End Date: 00-03-2015

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Non-commodity: Weather/Climate

Objectives:

To assess the climatic vulnerabilities by analysis of long term meteorological data, and
To analyze the risk factors in wheat growing areas assessing rainfall, drought, surface and ground water availability at northern region of Bangladesh

Methodology:

The study was conducted in randomly selected 160 wheat farmers in two upazilas namely, Dinajpur sadar and Kaharul under Dinajpur district of Bangladesh based on highly concentrated wheat growing areas. Demographic characteristics of the farmers, primary, secondary, quantitative and qualitative data were collected during November 2014 to March 2015 based on a pre-designed interview schedule with balanced combination of both closed and open-ended questions, and the same pre-tested before finalization. Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) tools and techniques like Focus Group Discussion (FGD), Direct Observation and Case study were also applied for triangulation of data. In order to collect relevant information from the wheat farmers, three sets of instruments (interview schedules) were carefully designed. The selected measured variables were weather and climatic parameters, long-term (1970-2015) climatic data of monthly temperature and rainfall, and adaption to combat climate change effect, etc. The SPSS package was used to perform data analysis. All the collected data were then checked and cross checked, compiled, coded and entered into the computer for analysis and interpretation using this software. Descriptive statistical measures like range, mean, number and percentage distribution, standard deviation were used to describe and interpret the data. Statistical measures like number, range, mean and standard deviation were calculated in describing the selected socio-economic characteristics as well as their livelihood status.

Source of Information: SAARC J. Agri., 14(2): 137-149 (2016)

Article Link (Online Journal): doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/sja.v14i2.31252

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Climate change is a burning issue of the world. Based on the findings it can be concluded that, analysis of long term meteorological data of the study area showed a steadily changing scenario of climate over time, where minimum temperature has been increased at the rate of 0.009°C per year, while maximum temperatures has been slowly decreased at the rate of 0.004°C per year. The trend of annual rainfall indicated an increasing rate was 3.87 mm per year. On the contrary, the mean monthly rainfall of recent decade during the month of November to March showed a decreasing pattern resulting more dry period in winter season. The winter and summer temperature had increased as opined by 77.44 and 78.20 percent farmers, respectively. Regarding rainfall (precipitation) intensity, majority of the respondents opined that the rainfall intensity had decreased in winter season (November to March) but increased in summer season (April to October) over time. Regarding the water availability, majority of the respondents expressed that surface and ground water levels have declined in winter season while increased in summer season which was very much consistent with the current climatic events. Farmer’s opinion regarding suitable technology to combat climate change impact on wheat production revealed that use of newly recommended varieties. In addition, farmers opined that WRC should provide more quality seed, training program and maintain regular contact with the farmers. The above findings suggested that the farmers were become aware and possess favorable response towards curtailing climate change impacts. The author suggested that the long term field trial on improved varieties of wheat with close monitoring on yield attributes influenced by changes of weather parameters such as temperature and rainfall are needed.

Knowledge Management: Journal