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Empirical Estimation of Producer and Trader Level Stocks of Rice in Bangladesh: a Methodological Review*

M. A. Jabbar**
Consultant for the National Food Policy Capacity Strengthening Program (NFPCSP), implemented by The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and The Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU), Ministry of Food and Disaster management, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh with support from the EU and the USAID.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

A reasonably good estimate of the private stocks of food grain over time at producer and trader levels is necessary for proper formulation and implementation of public policies on domestic food grain procurement, import and disposal.Literature on food grain marketing in Bangladesh is very thin compared to those on food grain production. Few studies that were conducted on food grain marketing addressed questions of the extent of marketed surplus, extent of competition and efficiency in the market, the degree of market integration and informational inefficiency, and the role of pre-harvest credit on marketing behaviour of producers. The aspect that has been scantily covered in marketing studies is the estimation of private grain storage or stock at a point in time at producer and trader levels, and how private and public stocks interacted to influence food grain market. In this paper, available literature is reviewed with a focus on the methodologies used to estimate private stock in order to identify gaps, and make recommendations to overcome them.

Keywords: Empirical estimation, Producer, Trader level, Stocks, Rice, Bangladesh

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Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Analysis and interpretations, Performance

Objectives:

In view of the above, this paper presents a review of the available evidence on private stocks of rice, the principal food grain in the country, giving attention to methodologies employed in the generation of those data, and identification of methodological gaps, if any, that might require further research.

Methodology:

This study included the following topics and sub-topics: I.BACKGROUND, II.CHANGING PRACTICES AND FUNCTIONS OF PRIVATE STOCKS, III EVIDENCE ON VOLUME AND PATTERN OF PRIVATE STOCKS 3.1 Some early estimates based on market studies, 3.2 Some rapid appraisal based estimates by FPMU, 3.3 FPMU’s spreadsheet model based estimate, a) Population, b) Domestic production and monthly harvest, c) Net output, d) Daily consumption rate, 3.4 Recent BIDS study, IV SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS.

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Agric. Econs. XXXV, 1&2(2012) 1-31

Article Link (Online Journal): DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.196762

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Achievement/Findings:

As the rice economy expands both in terms of larger output from better technologies, and greater market participation by producers with larger marketed surplus, it is essential to make efforts to get reasonably accurate estimates of marketed surplus and level of private stocks in the country that may be useful in the formulation and implementation of food grain procurement and distribution policies. The conceptual and methodological deficiencies of the past studies have been identified, which also indicate possible areas of improvement to develop a framework for more accurate estimation of marketed surplus and private stocks using appropriate definitions, identities and measurement procedures.

Knowledge Management: Journal