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Research Detail

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Shawkat Islam Sohel
School of Agriculture and Food Science, The University of Queensland (Australia)

Sayma Akhter
School of Environment, Natural Resources and Geography, Bangor University (UK)

Hadayet Ullah Hadayet Ullah
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide (Australia) Search for this author on: | | School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide (Australia)

Ekramul Haque
Department of Forestry and Environmental Science, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology (Bangladesh)

Sayma Akhter Sayma Akhter
School of Environment, Natural Resources and Geography, Bangor University (UK) 6 - Faculty of Life Science, University of Copenhagen (Denmark)

Parvez Rana
Faculty of Life Science, University of Copenhagen (Denmark)

The impact of climate change on ecosystems, especially at the species level, can be currently observed in many parts of the world. Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the likely changes in the distribution of species in future climate change scenarios. The aim of the present study is to predict the effect of climate change on a valuable threatened tree species Dysoxylum binectariferum in the northeastern part of Bangladesh using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model on species’ occurrence data. The future distribution of D. binectariferum was predicted under two scenarios from the IPCC 5th assessment (RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) in 2050 and 2070. Model results showed that approximately 32% (2177 km2) of the studied area is currently suitable for this species to grow. However, future predictions obtained by the model projected a complete loss of suitable habitat for D. binectariferum in the studied area by both 2050 and 2070. Therefore, urgent measures are required for the conservation of D. binectariferum in northeastern Bangladesh. The application of species distribution models to simple inventory data (such as the occurrence of the species) may provide policymakers and conservationists with a useful tool for the prediction of future distribution (at both local and regional scales) of poorly known species with high preservation concerns.

  Habitat Distribution Modeling Search for “Habitat Distribution Modeling” on: iForest | PubMed | GScholar , Potential Distribution Areas, Reintroduction, MaxEnt, Conservation
  
  
  
  Risk Management in Agriculture
  Climate change

The main objective of this study is to assess the potential geographic distribution of D. binectariferum in future climate change scenarios. The results will be useful in planning conservation strategies, thereby enhancing the resilience of this threatened forest tree species to climate change.

This study was conducted in the north-eastern part of Bangladesh, a region that is experiencing an increasing trend of temperature and rainfall over time. The area comprises two different districts (Moulvibazar and Habiganj), which are considered the major biodiversity hotspots of Bangladesh, and include three protected areas currently managed under an Integrated Protected Area Co-management (IPAC) system: the Lawachara National Park, the Rema-Kalenga Wildlife Sanctuary, and the Satchari National Park (SNP). Few scattered forest areas still exist adjacent to these protected areas. In the Lawachara National Park, 167 plant species, 26 mammalian species (including 5 non-human primates), 246 bird species, 4 amphibian, and 6 reptile species have been recorded so far. The forest is semi-evergreen with a canopy height varying from 10 m to 30 m. The top canopy mainly comprises Tectona grandis, Artocarpus chaplasha, Tetrameles nudiflora, Hopea odorata, and Toona ciliata. The second canopy comprises Syzygium grande, Syzygium jambos, Syzygium cumini, Gmelina arborea, Ficus benghalensis, Dillenia pentagyna, Grewia asiatica, Ficus infectoria, and many more plant species. The understory includes Bambusa tulda, Alstonia scholaris, Eupatorium odoratum etc. together with several ferns and epiphytes. The original indigenous mixed tropical evergreen vegetation was logged in the 1920s. The soil of Lawachara is alluvial brown sandy clay loam to clay loam. SNP has more than 200 plant species. Acidic soils (sandy loam to silt clay) dominate this area and the relief is characterized by a gently undulating plain changing to a hilly topography. The prominent vegetation type in SNP is mixed tropical evergreen forest. The relatively undisturbed forest is almost entirely restricted to the national park. At present, areas outside the reserved forest are being extensively converted into agricultural fields, fruit orchards, human settlements, sungrass (Saccharum spontaneum) fields including plantations of fast-growing timber species. Most plantations are dominated by exotic species such as Acacia spp., Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Tectona grandis, Albizia falcataria and Elaeis guineensis, forerunners of the palm oil industry in the country planted in this area during the mid-seventies. Rema-Kalenga wildlife sanctuary has 167 bird species, 37 species of mammals, and 638 plant species ([24]). The soil texture is sandy loam to silty clay and acidic. The terrain of the national park is undulating with slopes and hillocks, locally called tila, ranging from 10-50 m, scattered in the forest. The forest is drained by a number of small, sandy-bedded streams ([23]). Nineteen bioclimatic variables  with 30-second (1 km) spatial resolution were obtained from the WorldClim dataset, and used to detect the most influential variables associated with the present and future distribution of D. binectariferum. Future climate scenario data for the years 2050 and 2070 (based on IPCC 5th assessment data) were downloaded from the WorldClim dataset, and used to project the potential distribution of the species under climate change. These data sets were down scaled and calibrated using WorldClim 1.4 as baseline “current” climate data. Two future greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, called as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were selected for the periods 2050 and 2070, respectively. The RCP 4.5 is a relatively stable scenario where the total radiative forcing reaches 4.5 W m-2 by 2100 and further stabilises owing to the adoption of green technologies. Contrastingly, in RCP 8.5 emissions continue to increase throughout the 21st century. In this scenario, radiative forcing is predicted to reach up to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100  A Global Circulation Model (GCM), known as “Hadley Global Environment Model 2 Carbon Cycle” (HadGEM2-CC) and widely employed for simulating RCPs, was used in this study. To reduce the influence of highly correlated variables, a multi-collinearity test was conducted to check cross-correlation among variables. Variables showing pairwise Pearson’s correlation coefficient |r| ≥ 0.8 were excluded from the analysis. Based on such criterion, 14 bioclimatic variables were excluded and only 5 bioclimatic variables were used in the final model to predict the effect of climate change on the future distribution of D. binectariferum.

  iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry Vol. 10 pp. 154-160
  
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

The findings of this study can be considered as crucial information regarding climate change research on the forest species of Bangladesh. The approach used in this study can be applied to other tree species with high preservation concerns. The results may provide useful guidelines for government and non-government organisations who are responsible for the conservation and management of forest resources. Nevertheless, this study has some limitations. For instance, the choice of the SDM and emission scenarios can lead to overestimation or underestimation of the future distribution of the selected species. Therefore, we recommend the MaxEnt model used in this study to be used in conjunction with other SDMs and emissions scenarios. Nonetheless, we consider the results of this empirical study as an early warning of the effect of climate change on the future distribution of endangered species, which may help conservation managers in designing policies that may reduce the vulnerability of threatened or rare tree species.

Protection of threatened or rare species is unfeasible without the protection of their habitats. Protection of a forest habitat can be undertaken using different approaches. Apart from establishing protected or reserve areas, landscape connectivity between non-protected areas should also be taken into account. To this purpose, the addition of new areas seems to be an effective approach. Additionally, the active participation of the local, forest-dependent people is fundamental, especially in developing countries, as successful forest conservation is not possible without their active participation. To engage the local people in the decision-making process of conserving forests, a participatory approach or co-management system should be introduced. The Government of Bangladesh has prioritized the above-mentioned issues, so most of the protected areas of Bangladesh are now under a co-management system. Finally, an awareness programme should also be prioritized to address climate change issues and protect the valuable forest resources of Bangladesh for future generations.

  Journal
  


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