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Research Detail

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Iftekhar Uddin Ahmed Chowdhury,
Lecturers Faculty of Business Administration, BGC Trust University, Bangladesh

Mohammad Abul Earshad Khan
Lecturers Faculty of Business Administration, BGC Trust University, Bangladesh

Rice is the staple food of about 158 million people of Bangladesh, but the increasing climate change vulnerabilities and global warming are severely reducing the yield of various rice crops and may threaten the food security in the country. Therefore, this study is undertaken to examine the potential impact of climate change on the yield of three different rice crops (namely, Aus, Aman and Boro) in Bangladesh. A multiple regression analysis using OLS method is employed to assess the climate-crop yield interrelations on the basis of country level time series data for the period 1972-2014. We find that all the climate variables have had significant impact on rice yield over the period under study, but these effects vary among three different rice yields. Our findings also reveal that maximum temperature is statistically significant and negatively affect the yield of all three rice crops. In contrast, minimum temperature is highly significant and have positive impact on the yield of Boro rice only. Furthermore, rainfall is found significant for all rice yields with positive effects on Aus and Aman rice and adverse effects on Boro. However, humidity has a statistically significant effect on the yield of all three rice crops. Nevertheless, the influences of maximum temperature and rainfall are more prominent compared with that of minimum temperature and humidity on rice yield in Bangladesh. Our findings emphasize the importance of adaptation of temperature-tolerant rice varieties, and suggest that sustainable agricultural development may play a vital role in mitigating adverse climate change effects.

  Bangladesh, Climate change, Food security, Rice yield, Time series analysis.
  All over Bangladesh
  00-00-1972
  00-00-2014
  Crop-Soil-Water Management
  Climate change

Boro is fully irrigated rice grown in the dry winter and the hot summer (Mahmood, 1997). Nevertheless, according to BBS (2014), Boro is the most important crop in Bangladesh in respect of volume of production. Aman is the second largest crop in the country in respect of the volume of production and Aus is the third largest crop after Aman rice.

Empirical Model Specification. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between yield of three different rice crops (namely, Aus, Aman and Boro) and climate variables (namely, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall and humidity) to estimate the potential effects of climate change on rice crop productivity level. The dependent variable in this study is yield of different rice crops (such as, Aus, Aman and Boro) and following Lobell et al. (2007), Almaraz et al. (2008) and Sarkar et al. (2012) we have considered four climate variables as independent variable, that includes maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall and humidity. Previous studies used different units of time, such as months, phonological periods and growing seasons, for climate variables. However, this study has used an average growing season maximum temperature and minimum temperature variables with average growing season rainfall and humidity variables, because the average growing season climate variables are able to capture the net effect of the entire range of the development process by which yields are affected by climate (Lobell and Field, 2007). Moreover, the average growing season temperature is a key determinant of average yield (Cabas et al., 2010). The monthly average growing season maximum and minimum temperature and the avearge growing season rainfall have been used in previous studies (Granger, 1980; Chang, 2002; Lobell and Field, 2007; Lobell et al., 2008).

Most of the studies on the possible impacts of climate change on food crops used indirect crop simulation models (Schlenker and Roberts, 2008) and regression models (Sarkar et al., 2012; Boubacar, 2010; Mendelsohn, 2009; Isik and Devadoss, 2006; You et al., 2005; Peng et al., 2004). Forecasts of the yield changes in response to changes in climate variables, from regression models based on historical climatic and yield data for specific crops are relatively accurate (Lobell and Asner, 2003; Lobell and Field, 2007; Mendelsohn et al., 1994; Lobell et al., 2007). Before estimate our model, at first we have checked the distribution of the yield of each rice crops (Aus, Aman and Boro) against time by drawing histograms. An inspection of the histograms shown that the yields of Aus, Aman and Boro rice seemed to follow a normal distribution. Thus, depending on the distribution of the yields (dependent variables) here we have chosen ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method to estimate three different rice crop models. However, there exists a significant and positive trends between rice yield and time. The results of the rice yields may vary due to change in non-climatic factors such as improved variety, management techniques, fertilizers, etc. Therefore, we need to remove the yield trend caused by non-climatic factors before run our linear regression model. In order to remove its trend and avoid heteroskedasticity in linear regression model, we can use log-linear regression model. Because log-transformation can transform absolute differences into relative differences. In this regard, we run the loglinear version of our regression models. Thus, on the basis of the distribution of the yields of three rice crops and other properties, the following regression models are employed:

  Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences 2015 AGRIS
  
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

The overall objective of this study is to assess the climate change impacts on the yield of three different rice crops (namely, Aus, Aman and Boro) in Bangladesh using time series data for the period 1972-2014. The OLS regression method was applied to satisfy this objective. The overall findings of the study indicate that all four climate variables have substantial effects on the yields of Aus, Aman and Boro rice. In the case of Aus rice, average seasonal rainfall and humidity are found statistically significant and directly associated with Aus yield. In contrast, the average seasonal maximum temperature negatively influence the yield of Aus rice. In addition to this, for the Aman rice, three climate variables (average seasonal maximum temperature, rainfall and humidity) is found statistically significant. However, the directions of the effects is not identical. Average seasonal rainfall and humidity

  Journal
  


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