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Research Detail

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Khondoker A. Mottaleb*
Socioeconomics Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Carretera Me´xico-Veracruz, km. 45, El Bata´n, Texcoco, Mexico CP 56237, Mexico.

Dil Bahadur Rahuta
Socioeconomics Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Carretera Me´xico-Veracruz, km. 45, El Bata´n, Texcoco, Mexico CP 56237, Mexico.

Gideon Krusemana
Socioeconomics Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Carretera Me´xico-Veracruz, km. 45, El Bata´n, Texcoco, Mexico CP 56237, Mexico.

Olaf Erenstein
Socioeconomics Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Carretera Me´xico-Veracruz, km. 45, El Bata´n, Texcoco, Mexico CP 56237, Mexico.

Wheat consumption in Asia’s major rice economies has been increasing over the decades.Bangladesh is no exception, despite being the world’s fourth largest rice-producing and the largest rice-consuming country. In Bangladesh, wheat consumption has doubled from 1961 to 2013, and now stands at17.5 kg per capita, about a ninth of the rice consumption. Densely populated Bangladesh has achieved rice self-sufficiency, but relies on imports to top up modest domestic wheat production. This study assesses the prospects for Bangladesh to expand its wheat production. The rice–wheat production system offers good prospects to expand wheat production in Bangladesh and respond to increasing domestic demand. Based on the findings, this study urges the expansion of wheat production in the seasonally fallow land, particularly in southern Bangladesh. Also, this study calls for further investments in wheat research and development to ensure local adaptation, comparative advantage, and sustainable intensification.

  Wheat; Production; Consumption; Land allocation; Smallholder farmer; Bangladesh
  
  
  
  Socio-economic and Policy
  Wheat

The expansion of wheat production instead of irrigated boro rice, where possible, can significantly reduce the extraction of ground water, as wheat requires significantly less water than boro rice, and thus can bring positive environmental externalities.

This study relies on data sets made available by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and other national government and international institutes, such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Bank. The house hold-level information on the number of family members, sex of the household head, decision to produce wheat and land allocated for wheat production are collected from the Agricultural Census 2008conducted by BBS. The Agricultural Census 2008 was deployed May 11–25 in 2008, in which a total of 28.69 million farm households were surveyed, of which 25.35 million were rural. Of these, 1.73 million were from Barisal, 4.88 million from Chittagong, 9.46 million from Dhaka,3.43 million from Khulna, 7.66 million from Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions, and 1.53 million were from Sylhet Division. Although the 2008 census covered all farm households in Bangladesh, the BBS provides access only to a randomly generated 5 per cent sample of the entire census data, resulting in 1,163,147 households in 480 sub-districts in 64 districts in all seven divisions of Bangladesh. In addition, data on sub-district level crop areas (ha) that are very suitable, suitable, and moderately suitable for wheat production are collected from the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC). The wheat suitability map, as well as the total number of sampled households by division considered in this study, and the percentage of the households that produce wheat at the division level. Note that for 20 newly declared sub-districts located in Brahmanbaria (B. Baria), Bogra, Chandpur, Comilla, Cox’s Bazar, Feni, Laxmipur, Noakhali, Maulavibazar, Meherpur, Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Sunamganj, Sylhet, and Tangail districts, the information on suitable areas for wheat crops is unavailable. In that case, the wheat-crop suitable area and the total crop area of the older sub-districts were used and replaced in the corresponding newly declared sub-districts. To capture the influence of the flood-water inundation on wheat production at the sub-district level land allocation for wheat production, we collected and used land elevation data at the sub-district level from BARC. Based on the depth of the flood water in centimeters (cm), BARC has classified total land area of the country at the sub-district level into highland (less than 30 cm), medium highland (30–90 cm), medium lowland (90–180 cm), low land(180–300 cm), very low land (more than 300 cm), and miscellaneous types of land in ha.This study exclusively considered the extent of highland (ha) at the sub-district levels in which flood water should not stay long, thus allowing farmers to plant wheat at the correct time.To see the impact of the availability of seeds, the information on the number of government-registered seed dealers (numbers) at the sub-district level was collected from an online data base made available by the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA). This study used a distance variable (km)that shows the distance between the sampled sub-districts and the corresponding district headquarters to see the effects of large cities on the production of wheat in the nearest suburbs.To capture the influence of the number of households, literacy rates, and physical infrastructure such as the availability of electricity on the allocation of land at the sub-district level (if any),the data on the number of households, % of households connected to electricity, and the literacy rate (%) at the sub-district level were collected from the population and housing census of2011. Finally, to capture the influence of the extent of irrigated areas on wheat production, data on irrigated land are collected at the sub-district level (ha) from minor irrigation survey reports from 2012 to 2013 of the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC, 2013). Note that the use of 2011 census data on the number of households, the literacy rate (%) and the irrigated area in 2012–2013 to determine the proportion of wheat land at the sub-district level in2008 may generate a data-matching problem. However, it is expected that within two to three years, one cannot expect a big change in the literacy rate, electrification, and population growth in a developing country such as Bangladesh, where, because of shortages of electricity and natural gas, the government has almost stopped the rural electrification and gas connection programs. In fact, this is the best available data and it can be used to control for sub-district-level influences on the allocation of land for wheat production at the sub-district level.

  The European Journal of Development Research (2018) 30, 252–275.
  https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-017- 0096-1
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

Globally, wheat consumption has been increasing steadily over the years. Even in Asia’s traditional major rice economies, households are increasingly consuming more wheat. Until now, the growing demand for wheat in Bangladesh has been met by imports, extending the rice–wheat cropping system may provide a promising option.The study indicates wheat production can be expanded in a number of divisions in Bangladesh by facilitating and encouraging farmers to produce wheat – for instance in Barisal,where cropping intensity is lower than the national average (e.g., Mottaleb and Krupnik, 2015),and Chittagong and Sylhet divisions. This can have positive impacts on the poverty reduction efforts of the government by allowing resource-poor farmers to grow one additional high-value crop (e.g., McArthur,2015), for instance in the poverty-stricken Barisal Division by bringing fallow land under crop cultivation. A recent study by Gummaet al. (2016) demonstrates that there are more than 1.90 M ha of land in Bangladesh that farmers keep as winter fallow (from December to February, after Kharif season (wet season) rice and other crops). By bringing this land into short-duration wheat cultivation, Bangladesh can boost its domestic supply of wheat,and lessen its import burden. Moreover, the expansion of wheat cultivation in Rajshahi and Khulna divisions in place of irrigated boro rice can also mitigate the adverse effects of over exploitation of ground water in these regions. This study shows that the incidence of wheat production among the agriculture wage-based households in Chittagong Division is high, and in Barisal Division, the land allocation for wheat cultivation between agriculture wage-based households and others is not significantly different. This indicates that even resource-poor small-sized farm households in poverty-stricken regions are more likely to produce a high-value crop such as wheat. Therefore, the extension of wheat production in Barisal and Chittagong can bring positive impacts to the livelihoods of resource-poor small-sized farm households and even agriculture labor house holds who depend on income from working on farms owned by others. The econometric findings of the study confirm that the incidence of wheat production among farm households headed by females across divisions is low compared to households headed by males and this warrants further study on the underlying factors including the potential role of risk-aversion.Finally, this study demonstrates that the extent of highlands – associated with the length of time that flood water lingers – can increase the production of wheat at the household level. It indicates that proper flood-water control can have a significant impact on wheat production in Bangladesh. Effective management of flood water and drainage systems can bring other positive benefits to the country as a whole. International donor agencies together with the national government should invest in effective management and control of flood water and drainage systems, not only to expand wheat production in Bangladesh, but for the over all development of the country and in the face of climate change.

  Journal
  


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