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Climate Change, Salinization and High-yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh

Susmita Dasgupta
Lead Environmental Economist, Development Research Group, at the WorldBank.

Md. Moqbul Hossain
Principal ScientificOfficer at the Soil Research Development Institute,Ministry of Agriculture, Bangladesh

Mainul Huq
Consultant at the World Bank

David Wheeler
Fellow at the World Resources Institute Correspondence:Susmita Dasgupta -Development Economics Research Group - Environment and Energy Unit - The World Bank - 1818H Street - Washington DC 20433

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Progressive salinization of water and soil will be increasingly severe in low-lying coastal areas as climate change proceeds. Thus, understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion will be essential for effective adaptation planning. This paper uses econometric analysis to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil salinity on high-yielding-variety rice production in coastal Bangladesh. Findings indicate an output decline of 15.6 percent in nine sub-districts where soil salinity will exceed 4 deci Siemens per meter before 2050. Without new adaptation strategies, the predicted changes will result in 7.7 and 5.6 percent losses in the Barisal and Chittagong regions, respectively.

Keywords: Agriculture, Climate change, Coastal areas, Soil salinity, Rice production

Location: Southern Bangladesh: Barisal (38 upazilas), Chittagong (30), Dhaka (13), and Khulna (59)

Start Date: 00-00-2000

End Date: 00-00-2012

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Non-commodity: Climate change

Objectives:

Understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion will be essential for effective adaptation planning.

Methodology:

For this research, we assembled a large panel database that includes previously unavailable information on soil salinity and the yield of HYV rice production in140 upazilas in four regions of southern Bangladesh: Barisal (38 upazilas), Chittagong (30), Dhaka (13), and Khulna (59). Identifies the 140 upazilas in the study area, which spans the southern coastal regions of Bangladesh, with extensions to permit assessment of current and future salinity further inland. Study teams collected data from local offices in each upazila on HYV rice production and prices, as well as the quantities and prices of inputs land, labor, seeds, fertilizer, pesticide, and power tillage) for the period 2000–2012. For soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh, the Soil Research Development Institute (SRDI) provided information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations for the period 2001–2009. These data have not previously been available for empirical research.Figure 3presents average monthly station soil salinity measures for 2001–2009, color-coded in five groups for visual comparison. Soil salinity is particularly high in the southwestern coastal region and in Khulna and Satkhira districts. For upazila-level soil salinity, we calculate the weighted mean of measures from monitoring stations within 30 km of the upazila centroid, using weights that are inversely proportional to squared distances. Our database also includes measures of temperature and rainfall recorded by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)’s monitoring stations. For upazila-level temperature and rainfall, we calculate the measures for upazila centroids using data from proximate stations. We calculate weighted mean temperature and rainfall at the upazila centroid using the same distance-weighting approach for GDM weather stations within 50 km. All upazila centroids fall within 50 km of at least one BMD weather station, so our coverage is complete for rainfall and temperature. For soil salinity, a binding constraint is imposed by the need for observations from monitors within 30 km of upazila centroids, limiting our soil salinity measures to 69 upazilas. Although our data provide a new view of local agricultural production, records obtained from many upazilas have significant gaps in coverage. For the upazila-supplied variables, observations increase by year, from 76 in 2001 to 94 in 2012. The dominant constraint is imposed by land rent, which has far fewer observations than the other variables. Overall, a critical constraint for multivariate estimation is imposed by the requirement of availability for all variables. Complete data are available for only 14 upazilas for eleven years, and 13 in 2011. This limitation has strongly affected the estimation strategy described in the following section.

Source of Information: Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 47/1 (April 2018) 66–89

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Agriculture is an important economic sector in Bangladesh, contributing 13.1 percent of gross domestic product and employing 47.5 percent of the labor force (BBS 2010). In 2012–2013, Bangladesh produced 33.8 million tons of rice, including 18.8 million tons of winter rice. Therefore, the potential impact of salinity on HYV winter rice has become a major concern for the government of Bangladesh and its affiliated research institutions.Prior research on this issue using local surveys and descriptive statistics suggests significant agricultural productivity losses from rising soil salinity (Karim, Hussain and Ahmed 1990, World Bank 2000, Rahman and Ahsan2001, Petersen and Shireen2001, Hassan and Shah 2006, Haque 2006, UKDEFR 2007, Mahmood et al.2010, Thomas et al.2013). Thomas et al .(2013) provided a detailed technical assessment of potential climate impacts on agriculture in Bangladesh, using projections from several global climate models and technical parameters incorporated in available crop-modeling software. While the authors provide results from a survey of farmers on sources of crop losses,20including soil salinity, they do not attempt to mobilize the requisite data for direct estimation of salinity impacts. In this paper, we have developed, estimated, and applied a system for projecting the impact of rising soil salinity on outputs of HYV rice in the upazilas of coastal Bangladesh. We estimate the impact of soil salinity on agriculture using spatial econometric methods. Our estimation exercise indicates that HYV rice yield is significantly (15.6 percent) lower in upazilas where soil salinity is greater than 4 dS/m.In the projection section of the paper, we use our econometric yield model to forecast the future impact of soil salinity on rice outputs. We project output declines of 15.6 percent in 9 upazilas that cross the 4 dS/m salinity threshold before 2050. Our results also suggest that losses beyond 2050 are likely to exceed the projected losses before 2050, because the number of upazilas crossing the 4 dS/m threshold after 2050 (24) greatly exceeds the number projected to cross the threshold between 2012 and 2050 (9).Our results paint a sobering picture of the impact of rising soil salinity on HYV rice production in the coastal region of Bangladesh. The problem is most severe in the southwest coastal region21, as the region already has a serious problem from the spread and increasing intensity of salinization of river water and soil,and it is feared that the problem of salinity will worsen due to the changing climate. Many upazilas in the southwest coastal region have already suffered large yield losses from rising salinity, and coastal region losses will be compounded by further salinity increases in the coming decades. This inexorable process will continue as long as the sea continues to rise and salinity increases in coastal rivers. We see no prospect for near-term relief, because rising global greenhouse gas emissions continue to propel rapid climate change and melting of the polar ice caps

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