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Research Detail

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MADAN MOHAN DEY
University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff

MD. FERDOUS ALAM
Universiti Putra Malaysia

FERDINAND J. PARAGUAS
VU University Amsterdam

This study was conducted to estimate the elasticities of demand for eight different fish types and four income groups in Bangladesh using year-round data collected from inland areas of the country. It uses a three-stage budgeting framework that estimates a demand function for food in the first stage, a demand function for fish (as a group) in the second stage, and a set of demand functions for fish by type in the third stage using a quadratic extension of the Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) model. The Heckman procedure was used in stage three to remove the possible bias in the parameter estimates brought about by zero consumption. The magnitude of both price and income elasticities varies across different fish types and income quartile groups, indicating the relevance of estimation specific to fish types and quartiles. Except for assorted small fish, the other seven fish types included in the study were found to have positive income elasticity for all income levels. Assorted small fish is an inferior commodity for the richest quartile of the population.

  Bangladesh, Fish demand elasticities, Inverse Mills Ratio, Multi-stage budgeting, Quadratic extension to Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS).
  Bangladesh
  
  
  Socio-economic and Policy
  Fish

The present study improves upon the previous research efforts in that it: i) uses data collected on a weekly basis for all 52 weeks of the year; ii) has sufficient geographical coverage to be representative of the country; and iii) considers eight different types of fish and four quartile groups of consumers. Moreover, the present study has brought some improvement in the methodology and estimation procedure over the Dey (2000) study. It is expected that this study will not only be helpful for the country concerned but also provide useful guidance for future demand studies in the region. The analytical framework used in the study can be applied to other commodity groups.

Analytical Framework: We used a multistage budgeting framework which extends the idea of an exhaustive expenditure system to different levels or stages. This framework addresses a common problem in empirical estimation of system demand models requiring a sizeable number of equations, given the wide variety of consumer goods jointly purchased by households (Blundell, Pashardes, and Weber 1993; Fan, Wailes, and Cramer 1995). Specifically, a full demand system containing all consumer goods warrants a huge number of own- and cross-price parameters that are impractical to estimate under the constraint of limited data. one solution is to estimate the model in stages, whereby expenditures on goods belonging to broad food categories are incorporated in the model by estimating them sequentially. We applied a three-stage budgeting approach that estimated food and fish expenditure functions in the first and second stages, respectively. In the third stage, a system of demand equations for fish by species type was estimated using a quadratic extension of the AIDS (QUAIDS) model, which has recently proved popular (Blundell, Pashardes, and Weber 1993; Garcia, Dey, and Navarez 2005). The quadratic nature of the QUAIDS model captures the non-linearity in the consumption behavior of households for goods. At the same time, it relaxes the restriction imposed by linear demand functions regarding the al-location of marginal expenditures among commodities, assuming them to be the same in rich and poor households (Beach and Holt 2001). Such assumptions limit the classification of goods into either necessities or luxuries and deny the possibility that some goods may be luxuries at a low-income level and necessities at a higher income level (garcia, Dey, and Navarez 2005). A schematic diagram depicting the three stage-budgeting frameworks for eight species groups in Bangladesh is displayed in figure 2. In the first stage, the households are assumed to make decisions on how much of the predetermined income is to be allocated for food expenditure. Food expenditure is considered to involve a function of income, prices of food and non-food items, household characteristics (such as family size), and a set of dummy variables [time (months), districts, and urban/rural divide]. In the second stage, each household allocates a portion of the food expenditure for fish consumption, the amount of which is assumed to be dependent on prices of different food items (e.g., fish, cereal, meat, chicken, eggs, milk, vegetables, spices, pulses, oil) and other dummy variables as specified in the first stage. Finally, the expenditures for different types of fish are estimated in the third stage, using the prices of different types of fish, per capita fish expenditures, and dummy variables as mentioned earlier. It is likely to have zero consumption of specific fish categories, which may be due to any of the three broad factors: i) variations in preference across samples (households may simply not consume some species); ii) infrequent purchasing; and iii) misreporting (Keen 1986). In addition, due to the seasonal variability, the supply of a particular fish may not be available in the market; therefore, certain species may not be consumed. Various models for dealing with zero observation problems have been proposed by Deaton and Irish (1984); Keen (1986); Blundell and Meghir (1987); Heien and Wessells (1990). We used the approach applied by Heien and Wessells (1990) to deal with zero observations in the sample, as this is especially related to the AIDS model function. our particular application involves a special case of the censored simultaneous equation model in which the dependent variables are censored by a sub-set of unobservable latent variables. The dependent variables, which are budget shares of the species of fish, are either zero or some positive amount for each household. Those shares of zero values are censored by an unobservable latent variable that induces the decision not to purchase that particular item during the survey period. The decision to buy or not to buy can be indicated by a binary indicator variable, which is a function of the latent variables and is estimated using the Probit model (lee 1978). The assumptions underlying this model (and its proof) are that: i) the individual observations are independently and identically distributed and ii) the error terms are approximately normal with zero mean and a finite variance-covariance matrix that is constant overall observations.

  Marine Resource Economics, Volume 26, pp. 35–58
  
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

The results of this research show that elasticities of demand for fish in Bangladesh vary substantially across species and income groups. This only proves that fish is not a homogeneous commodity and the disaggregated level of analysis appears more appropriate. It is, therefore, very important to estimate fish demand elasticities specific to species and income groups. The findings have several important policy implications. First, almost all (31 of 32) estimated fish-type and income-class specific income elasticities of demand are positive. Thus, with an increase in population and per capita income, the demand for various types of fish in Bangladesh will increase. Second, the estimated in-come elasticities for all fish types tend to be higher among poorer households compared to the more affluent members of society. This analysis indicates that there will be substantial increases in fish demand in Bangladesh; a major share of which is expected to come from poorer households with increasing income. The absence of commensurate increases in fish supply will increase fish prices. Third, the price elasticity of demand for carp (both Indian and exotic) is inelastic. With carp producers facing inelastic demand for fish on the domestic market, increased investment in the carp sector should be carefully monitored. An increase in carp supply is likely to result in a fall in farmers’ revenue. However, the fall in carp price will be beneficial to carp consumers. Subsistence carp farmers will also be able to internalize some of the consumers’ benefits resulting from the decline in prices. Fourth, demand for high-valued fish (including Pangas) and shrimp are price elastic. This indicates that an increase in the supply of Pangas and shrimp and prawns is likely to increase farmers’ revenue. Fifth, technological improvement in the culture of tilapia, whose uncompensated own-price elasticity of demand is around –1, is expected to moderately decrease the price of tilapia and increase the welfare of both producers and consumers. The empirical results are reasonable and have provided new information about the demand for fish in a developing Asian country where fish is the main source of animal protein. The results are important for future modeling and analysis of the aquaculture and fisheries sector in Bangladesh. Information on disaggregated price and income elasticity estimates will be valuable for policy planners, particularly in considering future investment and development in the aquaculture and fisheries sector.

  Journal
  


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