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Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in Some Selected Areas of Bangladesh

Muhammad Shahrukh Rahman
Scientific Officer
Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Joydebpur, Gazipur-1701

Md. Abdul Matin
Chief Scientific Officer and Head
Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Joydebpur, Gazipur-1701

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The study examines the impact of climate change in wheat production along with an overview of climatic and non-climatic factors by using the survey data of 180 wheat farmers from three different districts of Bangladesh. Amount of urea, amount of seed used and farmers experience were positively significant with wheat production which indicates that with the increase of this variables production will be increased. Different climatic variables have significant negative impact on wheat production in the survey area. The coefficient of temperature effects on Rajshahi wheat production suggests that rise in December temperature would reduce wheat production and converse is also true. On the other hand if the temperature and precipitation in January both increases, the joint climatic impact in wheat production would be significantly negative in Barishal district. At the same time negative coefficient of the January temperature reflects that rise in January temperature significantly reduce wheat production in Jessore district. Wheat following by Jute and T-Aman are the most preferred cropping pattern in the survey areas. BARI Gom 25 and BARI Gom 26 were very much popular among the wheat farmers in the survey area. Irregular rains, drought, reducing the magnitude of winter cold and irregular deep fog are the main climatic factors disturbing wheat production in the selected areas. It also focuses some adaptation strategies and biotic and abiotic ways to mitigate climate change impact on wheat production. Low price, uncertain rain in the harvesting period and profitable alternative crops led 88.33 percent farmers to take decision on not to cultivate wheat in the next year. Though a lot of wheat varieties were available in the market but still farmers searched for such varieties which can compete with other crops in changing climatic situations. In addition, 76.67% of the respondents still want the quality seed. To aggravate wheat production now it is urgent to maintain a good market for the farmers.

Keywords: Climate change, Wheat, crop insurance

Location: Rajshahi, Jessore, Barisal of Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Non-commodity: Climate change

Objectives:

The present study aims to (1) explore the significant climatic and non-climatic factors on wheat production and (2) assess the impact of climate change on wheat production.

Methodology:

Selection of the study area is an important step in conduction any research. According to Yang (1962) “The area in which a business survey is to be carried out depends on the particular purpose of the survey and the possible cooperation from the farmers”. With this end in view, the study has selected 9 upazila from three districts namely Rajshahi, Jessore, Barisal. After conducting a preliminary survey in two upazila of Barisal district. The selection of the study area was based on the following consideration. Availability of wheat farmers whose wheat production experience were more than five years. Different agricultural Ecosystem affected by climate change related aspects, high temperature, low and uncertain rain and various sorts of natural calamities. Accessibility and good transportation system. The high expected co-operation from the farmers. In view of time factor and available resources and limitations, these areas were considered suitable for the study. Different categories of 180 wheat produces with different income groups were selected purposively. For this, 60 from each districts were selected based on the information provided by the upazila extension officer. Keeping in view the objectives of the study, a survey schedule was prepared to record the desired information from the respondents. Before finalization of the schedule, pretest was conducted in the area before going for final data collection. Based on the pretest made and experience gathered, necessary modification and rearrangements of the questions were made and survey schedule was finally prepared in sample and sequential manner so as to generate desired as well as the accurate information. Survey method was followed in collecting information from the respondents. For present study, data were collected by the research himself along with two scientific assistants from BARI and one sub-assistant agriculture officer from respective upazila agriculture extension office. The survey was done through personal interview. The time period for data collection stated from January, 2017 and it was completed within 60 days. Repeated visits and communications were made for collecting necessary information. Field level primary data were collected from the selected respondents through direct interview by the researcher himself. The respondents were interviewed separately. Before starting interview each respondent was given a brief introduction about nature and purpose of the study. Then the questions were asked in a simple manner. The responses were recorded directly on the interview, schedule. Usually the respondents do not keep written records of their different activities, so the researcher had to depend on the memory of the respondents. During interview, the researcher asked questions systematically and explained whenever necessary. After completion of each interview, the schedule was re-cheeked and verified to be sure that answer had been properly recorded. If any information appeared was found to be inconsistent, the respondents were again approached and asked for right answer.

Source of Information: Annual Research Report, 2017, Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Bangladesh

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1.

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The influence of climatic and non-climatic variables was studied on wheat production in some selected areas of Bangladesh. The results of this study suggest that climatic factors and absence of institutional instruments such as crop insurance, disaster payments make risk management strategies very critical for wheat farmers in Bangladesh. It seems that temperature and wheat yield are negatively related. Fluctuating in heat responds negatively to wheat filed causes infestation of insect and diseases. In addition respondents of this study are aware of the uncertain rain other that cold and temperature. Nevertheless, the joint effect of this two climatic variable damages the wheat yield significantly. This led farmers to bring a lot of changes in their production purposes such as no. of ploughing for land preparation, seed rate, irrigation systems and fertilizer application. About 88.33% of the respondents voted for reducing wheat producing area which will be an alarming for Bangladesh. Respondents told mostly about uncertain rain, increase in drought, and decrease in cold and downward of ground water table for continuous deterioration of their wheat production. Most of the farmers demand was for such wheat varieties that can grow well in the context of climate change though 92.22% of the respondents now accustomed with the newly released BARI wheat varieties. In addition, respondents urge on timely sowing and proper fertilizing in order to get a better yield.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings