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Forecasting the Quantity of Shrimp and Dry Fish Export from Bangladesh

B.R. Sen*
Department of Economics and Poverty Studies, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Sonapur, Noakhali-3814, Bangladesh

Dr. S. A. Sabur
Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh

T. Islam
Department of Economics and Poverty Stud Uies, Noakhali Science and Technologyniversity, Sonapur, Noakhali-3814, Bangladesh

K. Alam
Department of Economics and Poverty Studies, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Sonapur, Noakhali-3814, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

This study presents forecasting the quantity of shrimp and dry fish export from Bangladesh for five years by using deterministic models that could be used to make an efficient forecast of shrimp and dry fishes. These models are very much quick, inexpensive and capable of describing time series data adequately in many situations. In this study, nine different deterministic time series models have been considered. They are all fitted to data of shrimp & dry fish exports from Bangladesh. Among the deterministic type models, the cubic model is best for shrimp export and S-shaped model is more applicable for dry fish export. From this study, it has been found that the increase of shrimp export would be 4.93% annually or 24.67% overcoming five years. The total amount would increase from 57017.56 thousand tones to 71081.6 thousand tones during 2010/11 to 2015/16. It has been observed that the quantity of dry fish export would increase by 0.46% annually. The total amount would increase by 2.30% i.e., from 355.30 thousand tones to 363.30 thousand tones during 2010/11 to 2015/16.

Keywords: Forecast, Shrimp export, Dry fish export.

Location: Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Forecasting

Objectives:

The specific purpose of this study is to develop appropriate deterministic models for the time series of shrimp and dry fish export in Bangladesh and to make five years forecasts for both the time series with appropriate prediction interval.

Methodology:

The present study was conducted using secondary data on shrimp & dry fishes export earnings from Bangladesh during the period of 1972-73 to 2009-10. Data were collected from various publications of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS, 1972/1973-2009-10). This is the only government level institute responsible for collecting and storing necessary data required for future planning and development of the country. In this study, for forecasting purposes, quantities of and earnings from shrimp & dry fishes export from Bangladesh have been estimated by using deterministic models. Analytical procedure The collected data were analyzed using SPSS and Microsoft Excel. Different methods of analysis were employed in accordance with the objectives of the study. A brief description of the analytical techniques is given below: Deterministic models: If the process is such that the future values are exactly determined by some mathematical function and once have identified this function we can exactly predict future values of the time series, then the underlying process is said to be a deterministic model. Nine types of deterministic time series models which often called growth model were used for forecasting purposes. These are Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, Cubic, Power, S-shape, Exponential and Compound, growth models. Although they do not provide as much forecasting accuracy as the correctly identified and estimated stochastic time series model, in many cases, they provide a simple, inexpensive and still quite acceptable means of forecasting. It is very important to note that these models are called deterministic in that no reference is made to the source and nature of the underlying randomness in the series (Pindyck, 1991). Here, an attempt is made to searching the best models using the latest available model selection criteria for making forecasts of the quantity of shrimp & dry fish exports from Bangladesh.

Source of Information: Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online) Vol.6, No.7, 2015

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1.

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

On the basis of the findings of the study, it may be concluded that earnings from shrimp and dry fish show positive growth per annum during the whole study period. The increasing rate in the forecasting of shrimp export for five years is satisfactory. Forecasting of dry fish exports increases but the rate of increase is very small. Well developed and systematic export promotion program is needed for shrimp and dry fish exports which will have a significant impact on both agriculture and economic development. By exporting shrimps and dry fish in the world market, production needs to be increased which in turn can generate domestic demand by opening up employment opportunities. Considering the importance, the present study will undoubtedly be useful for the Bangladesh government in policy formulation, planning and developing programs for improving the growth of shrimp and dry fish, reducing instability in shrimp and dry fish export and determining the quantity of shrimp and dry fish to be exported from Bangladesh. These empirical findings can be a significant source of information for the producers, traders, exporters, policymakers and researchers to build a foundation for further research in this sector.

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