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Do Increasing Legal Age at Marriage and Increased Use of Contraception Will Matter to Achieve Demographic Goal: Revisiting the Role of Proximate Determinants in Bangladesh

Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi
Department of Applied Science, Bangladesh University of Textiles, Shahid Tajuddin Ahmed Avenue, Tejgaon, Dhaka-1208, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

According to 2010 world population prospects (WPP), Bangladesh is passing the second phase of the fertility transition. The recent aggregate fertility level (TFR) of Bangladesh is 2.3 births per woman, which is very close to the replacement level. This transition raises questions about the possible factors for fertility decline in Bangladesh as the use of family planning methods are almost stable since the last decade. Using recent national-level survey data and the Bongaarts framework of the proximate determinants of fertility, an attempt has been made in this study to identify the factors responsible for such a notable decrease in the fertility level of Bangladesh. The results demonstrate that contraception appears as the most prominent determinant in fertility reduction in Bangladesh; followed by lactational in fecundability, marriage, and induced abortion. A high proportion of adolescent marriages in Bangladesh yields a high value of the index of marriage which consequently influences fertility level and in particular, adolescent fertility. Simulation on proportion married at adolescent ages suggests policy implication for raising the current legal age at marriage will decrease the proportion married at adolescent ages which with the increased use of contraceptive prevalence rate would help to achieve the demographic objective in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Bangladesh, Proximate determinants of fertility, Adolescent marriage

Location: Department of Applied Science, Bangladesh University of Textiles, Shahid Tajuddin Ahmed Avenue, Tejgaon, Dhaka-1208, Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Social status

Objectives:

To identify the relative contribution of changes in each of the different proximate determinants to corresponding decline in total fertility.

Methodology:

The data utilized for this research is secondary data extracted from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2011. BDHS 2011 contains 17749 ever-married women of childbearing age of all the regions of Bangladesh. To measure the fertility inhibiting effects of the four principal proximate determinants of fertility in a given population, the aggregate fertility model of Bongaarts (1978) and Bongaarts and Potter (1983) have been used in the current study. The fertility inhibiting effects of the four principal proximate determinants are proportion married, contraception, induced abortion, and postpartum infecund ability and they are measured in the model by four indices: C_m = index of marriage, C_c = index of contraception, C_a = index of induced abortion, and C_i = index of post-partum infecund ability. The value of each index lies between 0 and 1; 0 signifying complete fertility inhibition and 1 meaning no fertility inhibition. Symbolically, the relationship between the actual level of fertility in a population, as measured by total fertility rate (TFR) and the biological maximum TF is, TFR = Cm × C_c × C_a× C_i × TF (1). The complement of the value of an index is the proportionate reduction of infertility due to the inhibiting effect of that proximate variable. Estimation of the model indices is available elsewhere (Bonga arts and Potter 1983). The difference between the total fecundity (TF, taken as 15.3) and the predicted or model estimated TFR demonstrate the resultant inhibitory effect of each determinant while the fertility controlling effect is prorated by the product of the difference between TF and model TFR to the proportion of the logarithm of each index to the sum of the logarithms of all indices (Wang et al 1987). For example, fertility inhibiting effect of marriage can be expressed symbolically as, [TF - TFR (estimated)] x {(Log C_m) / logC_m+ logC_c + logC_i + logC_a}.

Source of Information: Bangladesh J. Sci. Res. 28(1): 27-34, 2015 (June)

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The summary measures required for the application of the Bongaarts (1978) model and corresponding reproductive indicators for Bangladesh (BDHS 2011) are presented in the following table. Multiplying all of the indices together by the total fecundity rate of 15.3 produces the predicted TFR for the population. The predicted TFR typically differs from the observed TFR because of underreporting of births, measurement errors of the proximate determinants, or the omission of any other potential proximate determinants that are influential in determining fertility levels in that particular population under study (Islam et al. 2011). Clearly, the least impact of marriage may be seen on the recent fertility decline in Bangladesh; having a value of 0.871, Cm may reduce only 13 percent of the total fertility in Bangladesh. The impact of family planning on current fertility is high for Bangladesh; almost 58 percent of total fertility declined due to contraceptive use. Besides contraception, the highest fertility decline occurred by Post-partum in fecundability, which declines almost 51 percent of fertility for that index. A small effect of abortion is seen in infertility level; approximately 1 percent of fertility is declined by abortion.

Nevertheless, the extent to which Bangladeshi women are making their own decisions, the mechanisms of decision making among the couples, the institutional framework by which the government implemented its policies, and the question of sustainability of low fertility in Bangladesh are among the question remain unreciprocated.

Knowledge Management: Journal