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The Ceres-rice Model-based Estimates of Potential Monsoon Season Rainfed Rice Productivity in Bangladesh

Rezaul Mahmood
Western Kentucky University

Mark Meo
The University of Oklahoma

David R. Legates
University of Delaware

Mark L. Morrissey
The University of Oklahoma

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Agricultural practices in Bangladesh are largely dependent on monsoonal rainfall. Historically, Bangladesh often experiences severe droughts and floods during the monsoon months, with significant crop losses during both extreme conditions. This article provides a quantitative assessment of potential monsoon-season aman rice for four transplanting dates: 1 June, 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August. A crop-growth simulation model, the CERES-Rice, is applied to sixteen locations representing major rice-growing regions of Bangladesh to determine baseline yield estimates for four transplanting dates. The applications were conducted for 1975 through 1987. The average potential yield in Bangladesh is 6,907, 5,039, 3,637, and 1,762 kg ha^–1 for the above transplanting dates, respectively. In other words, Bangladesh would obtain 27 percent, 48 percent, and 75 percent less yield for 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August transplanting, respectively, than for 1 June transplanting. Potential yield vulnerability is the least for 1 June transplanting (up to 5 percent) and the highest (up to 66 percent) for 15 July transplanting date. The model applications show that regional variations exist for potential yield and yield vulnerability for a particular transplanting date. In addition, the response of yield and vulnerability for a region changes with transplanting dates.

Keywords: Bangladesh, CERES-Rice model, monsoon, vulnerability, yield

Location: Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Modeling

Objectives:

The present study addresses this issue and provides a quantitative assessment of potential yield for several transplanting dates. The climatic time series used in this investigation presents a variety of hydroclimatic conditions that are representative of interannual monsoon season rainfall fluctuations.

Methodology:

The CERES-Rice Model The CERES-Rice model is representative of the current array of advanced physiologically based rice crop growth simulation models and has been widely applied to understanding the relationship between rice and its environment (Bachelet and Gay 1993; Rosenzweig and Parry 1994). Bachelet and Gay (1993) applied this model to determine impacts of climate change in Asia while Rosenzweig and Parry (1994) investigated impacts of climate change on worldwide crop productivity by using the CERES-Rice model. In addition, this model has also been successfully applied to a number of country/regional studies to estimate the impacts of climate change on rice productivity (cf. Baer, Meyer, and Erskine 1994; Escano and Buendia 1994; Tongyai 1994; Barry and Geng 1995; Jin et al. 1995; Seino 1995; Singh and Padilla 1995). The CERES-Rice model is variety-specific (e.g., the BR11 aman) and is able to predict more accurately rice yield and rice-plant response to various environmental conditions. The model assumes that cultivar, soil-water conditions, and crop management are the primary influences on rice productivity (Bachelet and Gay 1993). Climatic data requirements include daily precipitation, daily maximum and minimum air temperature, and daily solar radiation (Table 2). The CERES-Rice also requires information on soil characteristics to calculate evapotranspiration and other components of the water balance, as well as detailed information on management practices, including cultivar, planting date, plant density, and nitrogen fertilization (Ritchie et al. 1987; Tsuji, Uhera, and Balas 1994; Hoogenboom et al. 1995; Hunte and Boote 1998). Assumptions and key aspects of the CERES-Rice model have been discussed in detail in a number of studies (cf. Ritchie et al. 1987, 1998; Singh 1992; Singh and Padilla 1995; Godwin and Singh 1998; Ritchie 1998). The following discussion presents a summarized outline of the relevant parts of the model, including the plant growth and water balance components. Since this study assumes an optimum supply of fertilizer, as recommended by the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), a description of the nitrogen submodel is not included.

Source of Information: University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Papers in Natural Resources, School of 2003

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The CERES-Rice model was applied to sixteen major rice-growing locations for a weather dataset from 1975 through 1987. These applications provide a quantitative assessment of potential rainfed aman rice productivity and vulnerability in Bangladesh during the monsoon season for multiple transplanting dates, including 1 June, 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August. The results of this study would be valuable for Bangladeshi farmers and policymakers for short- and long-term planning to maximize resource use. The actual yield during the study period was one-sixth of the potential yield, and rice productivity in Bangladesh is currently 50 percent lower than that of other major rice-producing countries (FAO2001). The estimates provided in this study can be used as a benchmark for future planning. The present study assumed BRRI-recommended fertilizer supply and saturated and puddled soils during transplanting. The model’s performance was evaluated for yield estimation, and we found that the model estimations are satisfactory. The study finds that, on average, the southwestern region of Bangladesh is the most productive region for the 1 June transplanting date, with a potential yield estimate of 7,122 kg ha^–1. For the 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August transplanting dates, the central (1 July and 15 July), and eastern (15 August) regions are the most productive, with average yields of 5,326, 4,222, and 1,882 kg ha^{– 1}, respectively. Hence, it is clear that regional response varies with the transplanting dates. It is also clear that potential yield decreases rapidly as transplanting occurs later. End-of-the-season moisture stress due to the departure of the monsoon is primarily responsible for the yield reduction. Compared to the 1 June transplanting date, Bangladesh would lose, on average, 27 percent, 48 percent, and 75 percent of potential yield using the 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August transplanting dates, respectively.

Knowledge Management: Journal