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Research Detail

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T. S. Amjath-Babu
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Dhaka, Bangladesh

Timothy J. Krupnik
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Dhaka, Bangladesh

Shakuntala H. Thilsted
WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia

Andrew J. McDonald
School of Integrative Plant Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

In the context of developing countries, early evidence suggests that the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food production systems is complex, heterogenous, and dynamic. As such, robust monitoring of the impact of the health crisis and containment measures across agricultural value chains will likely prove vitally important. With Bangladesh as a case study, we discuss the building blocks of a comprehensive monitoring system for prioritizing and designing interventions that respond to food system disruptions from COVID-19 and preemptively avoid further cascading negative effects. We also highlight the need for parallel research that identifies pathways for enhancing information flow, analysis, and action to improve the efficiency and reliability of input and output value chains. In aggregate, this preliminary work highlights the building blocks of resilient food systems to external shocks such as COVID-19 pandemic in the context of developing nations. In doing so, we call attention to the importance of ‘infection safe’ agricultural input and output distribution logistics, extended social safety nets, adequate credit facilities, and innovative labor management tools alongside, appropriate farm mechanization. In addition, digital extension services, circular nutrient flows, enhanced storage facilities, as well as innovative and robust marketing mechanisms are required. These should be considered in parallel with effective international trade management policies and institutions as crucial supportive measures.

  COVID-19 . Food system disruption . South Asia . Monitoring . Resilience
  
  
  
  Socio-economic and Policy
  Evaluation

we use Bangladesh as a case study region to propose indicators to systematically monitor the health of food production systems in the developing country context. Following discussion of the monitoring system, response mechanisms for rapid recovery from shocks and potential mechanisms to pre-emptively avoid further cascading negative effects are proposed.

COVID-19 food production system disruption pathways

Our synthesis of media reports and rapid field assessments suggests that South Asia’s food production systems – and particularly those reliant on external inputs and human labor – are being disrupted by the COVID-19 crisis through multiple pathways. International and domestic supply chains for fertilizers, agro-chemicals, machinery, and seeds have been impeded by import and movement restrictions. Logistical constraints (international shipping and domestic transport interruptions), and partial closures of input dealerships appear to be common problems. Similar disruptions to hatchery operations and feed supplies (FAO 2020a) affect aquaculture, poultry, and livestock production. ‘Stay in place’ orders and limitations imposed on migration have created pockets of labor shortages (FAO 2020b), particularly for the harvest of South Asia’s winter ‘rabi’ season crops including rice, wheat, and horticultural crops (ICRISAT 2020). Even where farmers have been able to hire sufficient farm labor, social distancing measures have slowed operations. Where farming systems are more mechanized, transport restrictions have inhibited the movement of agricultural machinery, although efforts taken by regional governments to permit unfettered movement of agricultural equipment and goods has resulted in some degree of success (USAID 2020; FAO 2020c). Concerns have emerged that there could be planting delays – mainly for rice – in the subsequent ‘kharif’ (monsoon) season. In addition to labor, shortages in seed availability may also complicate planting. In India, farmers across 43 districts have indicated insufficient seed availability for the kharif crop (PRADAN 2020). Crop establishment delays in the monsoon season can have ‘knock-on’ effects (exposure to late season terminal heat stress) on the following ‘rabi’ (winter) season crop by delaying its establishment (Dubey et al. 2020; Arshad et al. 2017). Similarly, aquaculture and livestock activites have also faced delays in stocking, feeding, and other operations, reducing potential production and complicating timely marketing. Disruption of hatchery operations and processing facilities due to logistic, labour and input related constraints have also become concerns (FAO 2020c). In addition to production disruptions, farmers also face output market challenges, with fewer buyers willing to purchase products, particularly for perishables. Commodities with high income elasticities such as fruits and vegetables, meat, fish, milk, and eggs are facing significant declines in demand due to contraction in incomes of non-salaried informal workers and price spikes, especially in urban areas (Abhishek et al. 2020). In addition, closures of restaurants and food catering businesses have also affected demand, especially of fish and livestock products (FAO 2020a). For individual farmers, lower sales revenues that result from price and sales volume changes for winter season produce have led to capital shortages. These in turn could impact input purchasing decisions, especially for the 2020 monsoon kharif cropping season that commenses in July. The aggregate economic impacts of these developments are likely to be transferred along agricultural value chains (Saghaian et al. 2008; Hassouneh et al. 2012). In addition, a reduction in sales of agricultural inputs is likely to translate into reduced cash flows for retailers and wholesalers, which may lead to a liquidity crunch that can impact dealers’ ability to maintain stocks of critical inputs (iDE 2020). In sum, these interactive effects could cascade throughout the food system.

  Food Security (2020) 12:761–768
  https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-020-01083-2 / Published online: 15 July 2020 F
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

Well-designed monitoring systems can assist in the development of early warning systems to alert when food production systems and associated agricultural value chains are nearing vulnerability thresholds. Monitoring of indicators can assist in facilitating proactive engagement, while also providing a data stream to inform corrective interventions for speedy recovery. This viewpoint provides the outlines of a monitoring and early warning system for food system disruptions in Bangladesh, with ramifications for other developing nations. A COVID-19 resilient food system to is likely to be one that has stable supply chains, infection safe logistics, extended social safety nets, adequate credit facilities, and innovative labour management tools, alongside appropriate farm mechanization efforts. In addition, COVID-19 safe farm operation protocols, digital extension services, circular nutrient flows, enhanced storage facilities, and innovative marketing mechanisms are needed, along with effective international trade management policies and institutions. Given that the actions required to implement monitoring of food systems health and undertake corrective measures are complex and interconnected, creation of an adequately funded institutional mechanism to coordinate monitoring and mitigation measures could be beneficial. The anticipated longer-term nature of the COVID-19 crisis – which is still unfolding in South Asia and globally – is another compelling reason. In addition, increased coordination with different government, private, and non-governmental agencies, as well as development partners, multilateral institutions, and international agencies are needed for successful mitigation and the creation of more resilient food systems.

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