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Research Detail

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Md Sanaul H. Mondal
Department of Social Relations, East West University, Bangladesh

Bangladesh is characterised by its large population on a small land, rapid and unplanned urbanisation, rising urban inequalities, food and nutritional insecurity and lower level of resilience to climate change. These combined effects are major threats to food security of the country in the near future. This paper examined the implications of population growth and climate change on sustainable development of Bangladesh. This research was based on the analysis of chronological data and synthesis of literature on population growth, greenhouse gases emission, climate change, food security and sustainable development, mainly contextualised on Bangladesh. The analysis found that the population of Bangladesh has almost doubled between 1980 and 2015. The country shared around 2.2% (in 2013) of global population and contributed only 0.19% of global carbon dioxide emission. On the contrary, climate change is the biggest challenge for the country. An increase in temperature could decline rice and wheat production. Moreover, average monsoon rainfall would be increased as a result of increased temperature. The increase in temperature and rainfall may lead to early arrival and late departure of the monsoon season or an increase in mean daily rainfall intensity. Population growth and climate change have multiple implications on development. Therefore, sustainable development may be difficult to attain if climate change continues to jeopardise economic growth, environmental stability as well as the social progress of Bangladesh.

  Population growth, Climate change, Sustainable development, Bangladesh
  
  
  
  Socio-economic and Policy
  Climate change

Bangladesh is characterised by rapid population growth, high density, unplanned urbanisation, increasing urban inequalities, food and nutritional insecurity, as well as lower level of resilience to the impact of climate change. The combined effects of population growth and climate change are major threats to food security for the country. Taking all these factors into consideration, this study aims at examining the implications of population growth and climate change on sustainable development of Bangladesh. To analyse these multidisciplinary aspects, this paper first establishes the correlation among population growth, GDP growth and CO2 emission of Bangladesh. This is followed by a synthesis of the social, economic and environmental implications of population growth and climate change on sustainable development of the country. The results of this study would help policymakers and development practitioners to deal with population growth and climate change as these coincide with development agenda for sustainable development.

 

This research used exploratory research design. Data for this study were gathered from various sources. Scopus and Google search engines were used to collect relevant literature on population growth, GHG emission, climate change, food security and sustainable development of Bangladesh using keywords (population, climate change, sustainable development and Bangladesh). Snowball sampling is a non-probability sampling method that engages data sources recommended by other possible data sources to be used in a research (Mugambiwa & Tirivangasi 2017). Snowball sampling was also employed for this study. he data on population growth, CO2 emissions and GDP were collected from World Bank (2016) for the period 1972-2013. The data were then used to derivate the correlation between population size and CO2 emissions; population size and GDP; and CO2 emissions and GDP applying Pearson correlation coefficient. The calculations and output were made possible using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 17 software.

  Jàmbá vol.11 n.1 Cape Town 2019
  http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v11i1.535
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

Bangladesh is successful to reduce population growth rate, TFR, infant mortality rate and so on. The country is also a role model for developing countries because its GDP has more than tripled since 1971. Despite those socio-economic progresses, the country is at high risk of climate change which may undermine the social and economic stability of the country.

Bangladesh has already invested millions of dollars to adapt (structural adaptation and non-structural adaptation) with changing climate variability, for example, construction of cyclone shelters, strengthening the early-warning system, allocation of more budget in agriculture research, etc. Nevertheless, climate victims are not waiting for support from the top and have already started to cope with the adverse situation. But adaptation has its elastic limit. It is quite unclear, how much adaptive capacities of the communities can make the people climate proof? However, the cost of adaptation is somehow difficult to ascertain for Bangladesh. Indeed, various laboratory works estimate the cost of adaptation for Bangladesh; nevertheless, it might fall into a fallacy because ground reality for adaptation and mitigation efforts would be different from that of the laboratory.

Bangladesh is now self-sufficient to feed its large number of people at the cost of maximum intensification of agricultural lands. But the national priority to ensure food security might face severe challenge by the population growth, over cultivation, unplanned utilisation of lands and above all change in climate variability, and these factors might lead the country towards short-term or chronic food insecurity, which will hamper the development efforts of the country. The impact of 2017 flood is the reflection of the above assumptions. The question asked is: how best can the country prepare for climate change? This actually lies in population control, increasing access to quality education, raising income level through creating sustainable employment opportunities, enhancing community-level resilience to disasters, and above all ensuring good governance.

Bangladesh should take cohesive actions on climate change for eliminating extreme poverty and inequality and promoting sustainable development. Impacts of climate change in this country are not a future threat - they are already pervasive through increased frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, increasing sea levels, decreasing crop yields and water shortages during dry seasons. Actions on climate change are very imperative, as climate change will pose threats to its achievement of SDGs. These actions must be integrated, balanced and inclusive, irrespective of social, economic, environmental and political arena to sustain the achievements of SDGs beyond 2030. To sum up, Bangladesh should prioritise population growth and climate change as an apex development agenda in the coming decades to achieve sustainable development.

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