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Farmers’ Perception and Knowledge of Climate Change in Bangladesh – an Empirical Analysis

Muntaha Rakib
Department of Economics, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet, Bangladesh

Shah Mohammad Hamza Anwar
Department of Economics, Metropolitan University, Sylhet, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The lack of sufficient knowledge about climate changes and the impact on agricultural production is an impediment to long term sustainable agriculture in most developing countries, including Bangladesh. This paper presents the results of an investigation to determine perception of farmers about changes in climate in Bangladesh. The study finds the determinants of farmers’ perception on climate variability in different specifications of household characteristics. The sample was adult farmers with at least 20 years of farming experience in the area. Data was collected on perceptions about temperature changes and variability in precipitation over a 20 year period. The results indicated that more than 80% of farmers believe that temperature in the district had become warmer and over 90% were of the opinion that rainfall timing had changed, resulting in increased frequency of drought.

Keywords: Climate change, Agriculture, Farmers, Perception, Bangladesh

Location: 800 agricultural households in rural Bangladesh

Start Date: 00-00-2010

End Date: 00-00-2012

Program Area: Knowledge Management

Non-commodity: Climate change

Objectives:

An investigation to determine perception of farmers about changes in climate in Bangladesh.

Methodology:

Survey data: The study utilized panel data collected through primary surveys of 800 agricultural households in rural Bangladesh in 2010 and 2012 that were administered by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Data Analysis and Technical Assistance Limited (DATA), with additional inputs from the Center for Development Research (ZEF) in 31 out of 64 districts from all divisions across the seven agro-ecological zones which are categorized by Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS).Therefore it is more representative with the whole set of major climatic shocks then the very few empirical past surveys in Bangladesh. Information was collected on demographic characteristics, physical asset, livestock and land ownership, crop management practices, access to credit and extension services, prior experience with climatic and non-climatic shocks, and perceptions about climate change. In 2012, additional information was collected on social and political capital and participation in groups by main male and female member of the household, coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies related to livestock; hence, the analysis involving these variables is for 2012 only. Note that, of the responding households used in the analysis, 89 percent were headed by men, and 11 percent were headed by women.

Perception and knowledge of climate change: Households were asked about their perceptions of temperature and rainfall changes and about overall climate change in the previous 20 years. Overall 90 percent of households noticed that climate is changing from the last twenty years. Table 1 shows almost 88 percent of households reported being aware that rainfall was decreasing and approximately 86 percent noticed that temperatures were increasing.The three most cited changes were - more erratic rainfall, longer periods of drought and later onset of rains. This is consistent with the analysis of Thomas et al. (2013) using the baseline data, which is unsurprising given that the sample was a resurvey of Thomas’s survey sites and that the follow-up survey was conducted only two years after the baseline.

Empirical approach: In this section the factors associated with the perception that climate is changing by male and female heads are investigated. The paper starts with simple probit model estimated by maximum likelihood method to identify the correlates and subsequently check whether the strategies are taken as complement or substitute to each other by applying bivariate probit in appropriate cases.

Farmers’ perception of climate change: It is interesting to know which types of farmers are likely to observe the climate change - an important issue to understand for practicing adaptation strategies. For this study, temperature increase and rainfall decrease are considered as the two measures of perceptions. To identify the correlates of farmers’ perception of change in climate, the dependent variable is a binary variable that takes the value 1 if the head of household perceives that temperature is increasing or rainfall is decreasing from last twenty years and the value 0 otherwise.

Results from both of the tables are consistent in terms of signs and statistical significance for most of the variables. Important finding is that, access to information and technology, political capital by male and group participation by female are positively and significantly correlated with the perception of both temperature and rainfall change. Probably female groups more emphasize the issue or alternatively they come in contact with different people which help them to develop their outlook about perception of climate change while, male who actively take part in politics and are more concerned about citizen rights and duty have better perception that the climate is changing. Surprisingly, access to credit and social capital of male and female are negatively correlated to perception either because the groups do not emphasize on this issue, or the households which have access to credit and other groups might already manage to overcome the problem of rainfall decrease by more irrigation for example. Surprisingly, education has no effect in influencing perception probably because farmers of survey sites has on an average 3 years of schooling which is very low to give rise the notion of climate change and variability.

Source of Information: Res. Agric. Livest. Fish. Vol. 3, No. 1, April 2016: 27-35 ISSN : P-2409-0603, E-2409-9325

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The study explores the detail empirical picture of farmers’ perception of climate change and the level of their perception in agricultural households in Bangladesh. Results find that farmers of Bangladesh especially those with assets, access to credit, extension services and ICT, greater female participation in groups and more exposed to climate change shocks; are already perceived that climate is changing.Participation in social groups by women is particularly important in enhancing their perceptions of climate change which should be encouraged by Government with appropriate policy intake. Government policies should be initiated to improve household access to extension services and access to credit and information, which would improve and diversify farmers’ knowledge of climate change and perception and thereby to improve their adaptation strategies. Improving opportunities for households to generate off-farm income could provide a further strategy in response to negative shocks. Political capital of male is important for farmers’ perception rather than social capital which show the importance of knowledge diversification and dissemination. The study does not consist of gender disaggregated data of adaptation and coping. Future research using panel data and disaggregated by gender will increase the understanding of existing knowledge.

Knowledge Management: Journal