Agricultural Research Management Information System

Home
Research Summary
Search
About Us
- ARMIS
- Brochure
Contact Us
Report
User Request
Data Input
Help
- Operation Manual
  - PDF
  - Video
- Program Area & Commodity
We have reached 37600 number of research entries at this moment.

- Logout

Research Detail

Home
Research
Detail

A Time Series Analysis for Supply Response Scenario of Food Grains in Bangladesh: the Quest of Structural Changes

M. A. Islam
Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh.

M. S. Rahaman
Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh.

M. A. R. Sarkar
Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh.

M. C. Rahman
Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur-1701, Bangladesh.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Using time-series data, we examined the structural stability and supply response scenario of cereal food production for the last five decades. Analyzes revealed that growth in the area for Aus, Aman, and Boro rice slowed in the period 1971/72-1983/84, but surprisingly the production growth accelerated due to amazing technological advancements and the implementation of government subsidies on complementary inputs. Applying the Nerlovian supply response model, the result showed that, lagged area for Aus, Boro, and wheat was positive and significant, implying that the preceding year area under Aus, Boro, and wheat had a significant influence on land allocation for the following year. The lagged relative yield of Boro and Aus turned out positive implying that in Boro season farmers took into consideration the lagged relative yield of Boro vis-a-vis wheat in the allocation of land for Boro rice and wheat cultivation. The negative price risk variable further implied farmers' risk aversion response towards price fluctuation. The yield risk variable was found negative for Boro and wheat, implying that this factor did not influence the cultivation of these two crops. Meanwhile, although Bangladesh achieved marginally food security, the government and policymakers should focus on stabilizing the market price at harvest time to realize sustainable food security in the future, and researchers should prioritize breaking the yield ceiling as well as developing different stress-tolerant varieties. In the same way, steps should be taken through public and private partnerships to disseminate different crop varieties so that productivity could be enhanced at the desired level.

Keywords: Growth rate, Structural break, Supply response function, Time series analysis, Autocorrelation

Location: Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur, Bangladesh.

Start Date: 00-00-1971

End Date: 00-00-2019

Program Area: Food Safety and Security

Commodity: Nutrition

Objectives:

The specific objectives of the present study have been formulated as 1) to analyze the level of structural change/stability in acreage and productivity of cereal crops over several decades, and 2) to know the acreage response of various factors determining decision regarding allocation of land among different cereal crops.

Methodology:

The data The present study used mainly secondary data. Time series data on area, production, and yields of different food grains for 70 years from 1947/48 to 2018/19 were obtained from the report of Kurosaki (2011) and different issues of the statistical yearbook of Bangladesh. The whole period (1947/48 to 2018/19) was divided into two viz pre-independence period/period I (1947/48 - 1970/71: period of non-adoption of improved cereal crop varieties), and post-independence period/ period II (1971/72 – 2018/19: adoption period of improved cereal varieties). Post independent period was also divided into two sub-periods i.e., no liberalized trade regime/sub-period I (1971/72 - 1983/84) and more liberalized trade regime/sub-period II (1984/85 - 2018/19) to compare the rate of changes occurred in the area, production and yield of different cereals and to explore the causes of changes.

Measuring the trend of change In order to measure the trend of change, we only considered the post-independent period due to data gap. Five-year average was used to estimate the fluctuation rate and a pertinent index was used to compare the changes in the area, production, and yield of different cereal crops considering 1971-1975, 198185, and 1991-95 as the base period for rice, wheat, and maize, respectively. Noticeably the base period is considered according to the data availability. The pertinent index was formulated using the following formula: Index = {(Currently year value) / (Base year value)} x 100. Test of structural stability It was assumed that the effect of policy reform might have influenced food grain production during the period 1971/72 – 2018/19 since a substantial technological advancement in this sector took place and those were disseminated during this period. Taking into consideration this, a structural stability test was performed to verify the magnitude of structural changes. Production and productivity of different cereal crop between two periods of 1947/48 – 1970/71 to 1971/72 – 2018/19, and 1971/72 – 1983/84 to 1984/85 - 2018/19 were examined. Estimation of supply response Nerlovian partial adjustment lag model (Nerlove, 1956) was used for estimating supply response for different cereal corps (e.g., Boro, Aus, and wheat). It is noted that, the Aman rice is not considered in the analysis for the unavailability of price and other related data. The model implies that the change in the current area is in proportion to the difference between the long-run equilibrium area and an actual area in the previous year.

Source of Information: http://journal.safebd.org/index.php/jafe; Vol. 1 No. 3, September 2020, Pages 6-13, e-ISSN 2708-5694

Article Link (Online Journal): http://doi.org/10.47440/JAFE.2020.1302

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

This study has designed to show the supply response scenario of food grains in Bangladesh using time series data. For this, the study considered two breakdown periods of intervention; period 1 (1971-1983) was considered for substantial technological advancement in agriculture, and establishment of research organizations, whereas period 2 (1984 – 2019) was for structural adjustment reforms initiated by the World Bank and development of improved genotypes. The empirical findings revealed that the allocation of the area under Aus rice, Boro rice, and wheat in the preceding year had a significant influence on land allocation for the current year. The magnitude of the partial elasticity for Aus rice, wheat and Boro rice was 0.963, 893, and 0.789, respectively, indicating that the farmers had a considerably high adjustment response towards these factors. The findings also showed that the change in relative price did not have an influence on allocating areas for Aus and Boro rice. The lagged relative yield of wheat with respect to competing Boro rice has registered a positive and significant impact on area devotion to wheat. The Boro farmers took into consideration of the lagged relative yield of Boro rice vis-a-vis wheat in allocating land for Boro rice and wheat cultivation. However, farmers considered relative price risk significantly in allocating land for wheat cultivation. The yield risk variable was found negative in the case of Boro rice and wheat implying that the yield risk factor had no influence on the cultivation of these two crops. Irrigation availability had a positive impact on area devotion to Boro rice production. Farmers in Bangladesh usually take into consideration the availability of irrigation in allocating land for Boro rice cultivation, which signifies the essence of extending public efforts in improving irrigation facilities for boosting food grain production in the country.

Knowledge Management: Journal