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Ecosystem and Agriculture in the Changing Climate: Cases of Bangladesh and Ethiopia

CLAUDE E. BOYD
Department of Fisheries and Allied Aquacultures Auburn University, Alabama 36849 USA

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Global climate change predicted to result to any one or a combination of short-, medium- and long- term alterations in weather patterns, mainly in rainfall and temperature either will occur and/or are already happening due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. A higher frequency of ‘extreme weather events’ like drought, cyclones, floods destroying lives and resources, the greater unpredictability and variability in the seasonal weather events affecting ecosystems and agriculture, also the longer-term changes, like temperature and sea-level rises, lower or higher rainfall events already affecting survival, distribution and livelihoods of numerous species including human indicate the seriousness of the risks. Poor countries and communities are more vulnerable to climate change because they often are located in geographically vulnerable areas, like drought-prone Sudan, Ethiopia or cyclone-prone Bangladesh, or floodprone Mozambique, also numerous poor and marginalized communities within these countries are in greater risks from their risk prone habitat and livelihood. Adding to the issue is the fact that these poor countries and people are known to contribute (now and in the past) least to climate change but are suffering more. That natural ecosystems sustain human societies and allow them to prosper, all species depend directly or indirectly on the products and services of ecosystems, humans including their provisions of crops, livestock, fish, wood, clean water, oxygen and wildlife. Now that all of Earth’s ecosystems have been significantly transformed and degraded through human actions, the added threats from climate change intensified the potential to stress or even alter ecosystems and their functions, all make the situation more critical. The combined effects of ecosystem degradation and other environmental risks with climate change serving as a multiplier to already serious environmental degradation processes, affect poor communities and nations more adversely, thereby undermining the possibilities to achieve the Millenium Development Goals (MDG). Agriculture and climate change are linked, agriculture is a major driver and cause of climate change with its immense diversity of practices, with numerous cultural, institutional, and economic differences and their interactions makes the understanding, vulnerability and risk analysis and adaptation options to climate change events very complicated. The objectives of this paper are to outline the climate change impacts on ecosystem and agriculture on of two most vulnerable developing countries, Bangladesh and Ethiopia, the analysis shows the amplification of concerns over the negative impact of climate change intensifying fears of environmental degradation and demographic pressures. As becomes overwhelming this may affect and displace millions of people in Asia and Africa creating serious social upheaval at the global level. This fear becomes more intense as most scientific studies on the potential impact of climate change have predicted that Asia and Africa are likely to experience higher temperatures, rising sea levels, changing rainfall patterns and increased climate variability, all of which already have begun to affect much of the population. The paper also discusses possible steps that are useful to deal with the situation.

Keywords: Ecosystem health, Development needs, Water resource management. Inland aquaculture

Location: Overall Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Climate change

Objectives:

Poor communities already struggle to cope with the existing challenges of poverty and food price increases, but climate change could push many beyond their ability to cope or even survive. It is vital that these communities are helped to adapt, to avoid and manage climatic risks and to take advantage of climatic opportunities, but they need information about climate and risks, also the opportunities are urgently needed widely open for their use.

Methodology:

CLIMATE CHANGE AND BANGLADESH The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global temperatures would rise between 1.8 C and 4.0 C by the last decade of the 21st century but the impacts of global warming on the climate likely to vary in different regions of the world. In South Asia, the IPCC report predicts increased monsoon rainfall, resulting in higher river flows during the monsoon season in all the inter-regional rivers into Bangladesh from India, Nepal, Bhutan and China. These flows are likely to increase more due to the melting of the Himalayan glaciers. The IPCC also forecasts that global warming will result in sea level rises of between 0.18 and 0.79 metres, resulting in increased coastal flooding and saline intrusion into aquifers and rivers. Rainfall is predicted to become both higher and more erratic, and the frequency and intensity of droughts are likely to increase, especially in the drier northern and western parts of the country. Bangladesh is widely recognised to be one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. It experiences frequent natural disasters, which cause loss of life, damage to infrastructure and economic assets, and adversely impacts on lives and livelihoods, especially of poor people. During last 25 years, Bangladesh experienced six severe floods, two successive and damaging floods in 2007 inundating the country twice in the same season. High floods with increased river bank result in the loss of thousands of hectares of agricultural land and scores of villages, and displace many thousands of people from their homes. Flash floods can also be a problem in the more hilly north-eastern and south-eastern regions of the country. Severe tropical cyclone hits Bangladesh every year, more stronger ones in every 3 years during the months just before and after the monsoon and intensify as they move north over the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal. They are accompanied by high winds of over 150 kph and can result in storm surges up to seven metres high, resulting in extensive damage to houses and high loss of life to humans and livestock along the coast. The tropical cyclones in 1970 and 1991 are estimated to have killed 500,000 and 140,000 people, respectively (GoB, 2005). Droughts are seasonal and can devastate crops in Bangladesh causing hardship to the small farmers and poor agricultural laborers Droughts most commonly affect the northwestern region, which generally has lower rainfall than the rest of the country.

The Bali CoPs of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2007) launched the Bali Action Plan identifying a set of actions essential to achieve a secure climate future. Bangladesh has put emphasis on the importance of specific interventions to ensure that the people have secure access to food, water, energy and livelihoods. The Government of Bangladesh aims to eradicate poverty and achieve economic and social well-being for its entire people through a pro-poor, climate-resilient and low-carbon development Strategy following the Bali Action Plan. The main activities eg adaptation to climate change, mitigation, technology transfers and adequate and timely flow of funds for investment, within a framework of food, energy, water and livelihoods security.

Source of Information: INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ECOSYSTEM CONSERVATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (ECOCASD 2011) 10-12 FEBRUARY 2011, AMBO UNIVERSITY, ETHIOPIA

Article Link (Online Journal):

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Achievement/Findings:

Though seasonal predictability is generally better in the tropical and sub-tropical regions owing to strong connections there between the atmosphere and the oceans, even then uncertainty is still high. Uncertainty is therefore an intrinsic characteristic of all-weather and climate predictions and model outputs and is an important consideration in their use. This is one of the most important problems when adaptation to climate change is considered for Bangladesh and Ethiopia. The combined effects of ecosystem degradation and climate change affect poor communities of both the nations, therefore there is a strong rationale for an increasing focus on the adaptation of agriculture to climate change. A very wide rage of the diversity of agricultural practices exists due to the range of climate and other environmental variables as well as cultural, institutional, and economic factors. This also implies a correspondingly large array of possible adaptation options which can be adopted. The paper indicated a number of these options to derive benefits of adaptation. A need of participatory research into climate change adaptation options was also indicated for agricultural decision-making at farmers and at higher levels. These adaptations, when adopted successfully singly or in combination, have substantial potential to minimize or eliminate negative climate change impacts from the ecosystems. A stronger focus on adapting agriculture is urgent to adopt sufficiently to future climate change at the management level as indicated by the government documents discussed above. It is positive that a growing realization among academics, government and civil society that in order to achieve mainstreaming, institutional mechanisms need to be developed to forge links between climate change activities initiated and risk management and development activities of national, sectoral and local planners. It is also important, as Sen (1999, 1995, 2004) suggested that development – expanding the life opportunities that people can enjoy – is moved forward by people mobilizing their current resources and abilities to shape their opportunities for better future. Many of the contemporary challenges faced by human societies, including climate change impacts and degradation of natural resources, limited livelihood opportunities and lack of access to resources and services can be faced with this new approach, the new conceptual framework which is in line with the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). This new approach inevitably has to consider the linkages between the knowledge, innovations and practices of local communities and their inextricable linkages to ecosystems, economy, cultural and spiritual values, customary laws and of course biological diversity .

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings