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Growth Scenarios of Area, Production and Yield of Rice in Bangladesh

Hurunnahar Khushi
Corresponding author
Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh

Md. Moniruzzaman
Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh

Nazia Tabassum
Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Bangladesh is an agro-based developing country where rice is the dominant crop. And it is the staple food for this country. Over the long period, rice production in Bangladesh has been gradually increased, now the country has reached in self-sufficiency in rice production. The study attempted to estimate growth of area, production, and yield of rice in Bangladesh. The semi-log model (Log-Lin) was used to estimate the compound growth rates of rice of different seasons. The study was based on secondary data covered from the period 1971/72 to 2015/16.Growth rates were estimated separately for local and high yielding variety, and also, they were estimated together. The growth rate of an area of Aus was found -3.40 percent for the entire period that means an area of Aus cultivation has been decreased on an average 3.40 percent per year and it was statistically significant. And for Aman it was 0.10 percent, but statistically insignificant. On the other hand, it was 4.40 for Boro that means an area of Boro cultivation has been increased 4.40 percent per year which was statistically significant. The growth rate of production of Aus was also significantly negative and it was 1.30 percent and positive for Aman and Boro rice that were 1.90 and 5.70 percent per year, respectively. The growth rates of area and production of HYV rice (Aus, Aman and Boro) were found positive for every case and negative for local. Growth rates of yield of Aus, Aman and Boro were significantly positive, which were 2.10, 1.80 and 1.30 percent per year, respectively for the entire period. Growth rates were estimated for the different sub-periods dividing the entire period of decades. Examining the reasons for different growth scenarios could be the future research in this connection.

Keywords: Growth rates, Rice production, Area, Yield, Bangladesh

Location: In Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Crop-Soil-Water Management

Commodity: Rice

Objectives:

To estimate the growth rates of area, production and yield of rice in Bangladesh.

Methodology:

Secondary data were collected from different sources and it was time-series data in nature. The data were collected mainly from different yearly reports published by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Analytical Technique Data were analyzed by using statistical software (SPSS). The following technique and statistical models were used according to the objective of this study. Growth rates estimation Growth rates in area, production, and yield of rice (separately and together) are estimated for examining the growth performance of the rice sector. To know the growth of area, production, and yield of rice of three seasons (aus, aman, and boro) in Bangladesh for the period of 1971-72 to 2015-16, the following semi-log model (Gujarati, 2003) was used, which was used by many researchers (i.e., Akhter et al. 2016; Khalique 2015; Hossain, 2010; Bhuiyan, 2004; Barua, 2001; Alam ,1997; Alam, 1992) for measuring the growth rate. InY_t = ß₁ + ß₂t + U_t Where, Y_t= area/ production/ yield of selected rice of aus, aman, and boro seasons in year t, ß₁= intercept, ß₂= coefficient, refers the growth rate in ratio scale when multiplied by 100, it expresses percentage growth. t= independent variable (time) and U_t = disturbance term

Source of Information: The Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics, 41(2): 81-97, 2020

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

In this study time series data of area and production of rice (aus, aman and boro) for the period 1971/72to 2015/16 for the country as a whole were employed. Rice is the principal cereal crop. It is the largest with an average 71 percent share of the gross output value of crops and the total rice crop covers 75 percent of the total cropped area (BBS 2017). Rice production has been increased by 2.87 times since independence without further increase in rice area. This is a single study that one can find the growth rate of area, production, and yield of rice (separately-local, HYV, and together) in Bangladesh over the period from 1971/72 to 2015/16 by decades and also by whole period. In this perspective this study has the significance in the field of growth of rice in Bangladesh. During the overall study period for the country as a whole growth rates of the area which was negative for Aus (together), that was 3.40 percent on an average per year and the growth rate of Aman (together) and Boro (together) were positive, but for Aman it was too low 0.10 percent and for Boro it increased significantly at the rate of 4.40 percent per year during the period. The growth rate of production of Aus was decreased at the rate of 1.30 percent. And for Aman and Boro the growth rate was increased significantly at the rate of 1.90 and 5.70 percent respectively during the period. The production growth rate of Boro has been increased much more than others. The growth rates of yield of Aus, Aman and Boro were increased significantly at the rate of 2.10, 1.80 and 1.30 percent respectively during the entire time period. The contribution of yield to increase production can be considered to be the technological improvement and adoption of technologies by the farmers. For the case of HYV (Aus, Aman and Boro), growth rates of area, production and yield has been increased significantly (except yield of Aus). The importance of Aus rice had been decreased as farmers slowly started shifting to the cultivation of irrigated Boro rice encouraged by its higher yield. It was found that the reasons behind the falling of Aus rice production was the non-availability of land as its seed sowing or transplanting period falls during the March and April months when Boro rice still remains in the field. Farmers are not getting enough time and land to grow Aus rice. The government can take incentive programs for farmers with an attempt to rejuvenate Aus cultivation. There is an important role of the agricultural sector in developing countries which can accelerate the growth of the economy. Most of the national policies and planning of the developing countries are reflected by the agriculture sector. Both developed and developing countries pursued a different policy to protect agriculture, to obtain self-sufficiency in food for domestic consumption, price support and protect the producer from the global competition etc.

Knowledge Management: Journal