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Growth Performance and Their Decomposition Towards Tea Production in Bangladesh

J. K. SAHA
Principal Scientific Officer & Head
Statistics and Economics Division, Bangladesh Tea Research Institute, Sirimangal-3210, Bangladesh

FERDOUS ALAM
Professor
Department of Agricultural Finance, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

ABUL BASHAR
Professor and Head
Department of Agricultural Finance, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The present study examines the growth rates of acreage, production and yield of Bangladesh tea from 1947-1970 to 1972-2001 split into pre and post-liberation periods. Production, acreage and yield grew significantly @ 1.95,1.12 and 0.83 percent respectively per annum over the study period. The growth rates of production and yield were significantly higher during the post-liberation than that of the pre-liberation period. Area expansion and yield were the main vehicles for increased tea output. So, emphasis should be given to the increase in yield and intensifying cropping through technological advancement, varietal research and strengthening advisory services.

Keywords: Growth rate, Sustainability, Decomposition, Yield augmentation

Location: In Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Tea, Income generation

Objectives:

The specific objectives of this study were: i. To estimate the growth rates of acreage, production and yield of Bangladesh tea. ii. To identify and measure the effects of the factors influencing the yield of growth of tea iii. To analyze the contribution of area and yield with increases in output of tea.

Methodology:

To carry out the objective of production, growth, and yield of Bangladesh tea, secondary data were used. The data on area, production and yield of Bangladesh tea were collected from the various issues of the Annual Report of Bangladeshyio Cha Sangsad (BCS) and International Tea Committee (ITC) etc. Data covered two distinct periods related to the preliberation period (1947-1970) and post-liberation period (1972-2000) of Bangladesh. The exponential growth model was run to estimate the growth rate of production, acreage and yield of Bangladesh tea. Following Gujarati (1988), the following growth model was applied. Exponential: Y = aebt ..................(1) or lny = lna +bt Where, Y is the amount of production, acreage, yield, t is the time, b is the growth parameter to be estimated and ln stands for natural logarithm. F = [ e_p2 - (e₁ ² +e₂² )]/k / [(e₁² +e₂² ) / (n₁+n₂ -2k)] with k (n₁+n₂ -2k) df . Where, ep² = Residual sum of squares for pooled sample e₁² = Residual sum of squares for period ₁ e₂² = Residual sum of squares for period ₂ n¹ = Sample size of period ₁ n² = Sample size of period ₂ k = Number of parameter df = Degrees of freedom Decomposition analysis: Decomposition of the growth of agricultural crops has been investigated by Alam (1992), Kamruzzaman etal. (1996) using Minhas and Vaidyanathan (1965) formulae. To decompose the components of change in output increases and their contribution, Minhas and Vaidyanathan algebraic formula used by the above authors is as follows. Change in total output t Pt - P0 Contribution of area change t Y0 [A t (1+C0 - C t) - A 0]+ (absolute change in area) Contribution of yield change t [A t {1+(C0 - C t) (Yt - Y0)}] + Contribution of cropping pattern t [A t Y0 {(Ct - C0)}] + Change in interaction of cropping pattern & yield t [A t - (Yt - Y0) (Ct - C0)] Where P0 = Production of tea from 1947-1970 Pt = Production of tea from 1972-2000 A0 = Area under tea from 1947-1970. At = Area under tea from 1972-2000 C0 = The proportion of area under the crop to gross cropped area under all crops in 1947-1970 Ct = The proportion of area under the crop to gross cropped area under all crops in 1972-2000 Y0 = The yield of tea from1947- 1970 Yt = The yield of tea from1972- 2000 Wenragren etal. (1984) have studied the growth of agricultural crops including tea by using Minhas and Vaidyanathan (1965) formula. Minhas and Vaidyanathan formula appears to be quite all right for seasonal crops where cropping patterns may change year to year. But unlike other seasonal crops, tea being a perennial crop does not have any cropping pattern. Therefore, Minhas and Vaidyanathan's (1965) exact formula applied by Wenragren (1984) does not seem to be relevant. In the present study, Minhas and Vaidyanathan's (1965) formula has been used with minor change dropping the cropping pattern and its interaction with cropping pattern and yield. The restricted formula applied in the present study is thus: Change in total output t Pt - P0, Contribution of area change (absolute change in area) t Y0 [A t - A 0] + Contribution of yield change t [A t (Yt - Y0)] + Where, P0 = Production of tea from 1947-1970, Pt = Production of tea from 1972-2000, A0 = Area under tea from 1947-1970, At = Area under tea from 1972-2000 Y0 = yield of tea from1947- 1970, Yt = yield of tea from1972- 2000. Factors influencing the yield of tea. To estimate the factors influencing the yield of tea were specified in a log-linear fashion. The equation was specified as follows: Y = Ax1 b1 x2 b2 ........ xn bn. Where, Y was the dependent variable and x1 through xn were the explanatory variables; A was the constant and b1 through bn were the production coefficient for x1 through xn. The logarithmic form of the equation is t Log Y = LogA +b1Log x1 + ............. b5Log x5 + e Where Y = Yield of tea (Kg/ha). x1 = Price of tea (tk/kg) X2 = Rainfall (mm) X3 = Rany days X4 = Temperature ( 0C ) X5 = Time trend and b1... b5 are the parameters to be estimated . e = error term.

Source of Information: SAARC Jn. of Agri., 4, 21-31 : 2006

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1.

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Area, production and yield of tea displayed significant growth over last 53 years. The rate of increase in production and yield however, during the post-liberation period, is significantly higher than that of pre-liberation period. Area grew at a faster rate during the pre-liberation period. These implied two things: first, when technology was traditional major output expansion came from area increase; second, when technology started improving major output expansion was the result of yield enhancement, particularly during the post-liberation period. Since the expansion of output due to area increase would soon reach its limit, dependence on this strategy is not feasible in the long run. The long-run strategy for expansion of tea output has to be yield augmented. Therefore, Bangladesh can keep on expanding potential land for tea cultivation to increase output as long as the area permits, but ultimately the country has to rely on a yield augmentation strategy. To tap these opportunities Bangladesh tea estates management should: i. explore suitable additional land and bring them under tea cultivation.. ii. intensify plant improvement research at BTRI, i, e,. to introduce high yielding and better quality vegetative clones and seeds among the tea estates so that per unit productivity is increased.

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