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Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Production in Bangladesh

Md Nadiruzzaman
CLISEC Research Group, Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, 20146 Hamburg, Germany

Mahjabeen Rahman
International Rice Research Institute, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh

Uma Pal
Acclimatise/Climate and Resilience Hub, Willis Towers Watson, New Delhi 110070, India

Simon Croxton
Acutora, Stanford 7210, South Africa

Md Bazlur Rashid
Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh

Aditya Bahadur
International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), London WC1V 7LE, UK

Saleemul Huq
International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), Dhaka 1229, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Bangladesh produces only 5% of the cotton she needs to sustain her readymade garments industries. The country has very limited agricultural land and cotton competes with other crops for this scarce land resource. On top of that, Bangladesh is regarded as a country where agriculture is highly vulnerable to the variabilities of weather patterns that result from climate change. Against this backdrop, to better understand the potential for the sustainable expansion of cotton production in Bangladesh, we examine cotton’s agricultural value chain and projected climate risks associated with different phases of the chain. We identified associated stakeholders at different phases of cotton production, engaged with them to understand climatic and non-climatic threats and developed an integrated set of recommendations for climate-risk management through improving the connection of producers to markets, increasing economic returns to small farmers, and improving efficiency along the value chain. We discussed our estimated climate projections with stakeholders to understand the challenges at different stages of production and marketing, and together explored and identified probable solutions. This research offers a new and evolving approach to assess climate change impact on agriculture utilizing a holistic approach, which could be adopted for other crops.

Keywords: Climate change, Agriculture, Value chain approach, Multi-criteria analysis, Bangladesh, Cotton

Location: In Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Crop-Soil-Water Management

Commodity: Cotton, Climate change

Objectives:

To assess the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Production in Bangladesh

Methodology:

In an ideal situation, a “Climate Resilient Value Chain Approach” involves five steps as listed below and shown. Selecting a climate-vulnerable study area. b. Selecting the climate-vulnerable crop. c. Identity the actors. d. Identification of climate risks and impacts on selected crop through its value chain. e. Presenting findings and agreeing on the next steps with the key stakeholders. Selection of Crop and Study Area: Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) is used for steps a and b, and a form of value chain analysis for steps c and d. Step e is managed through consultative feedback, using validation workshops to present results, recommendations and agreeing on the next steps with the main governing body responsible for that crop. However, in this study, we did not conduct a multi-criteria analysis as cotton was a pre-selected crop based on the interest of the Bangladesh Cotton Development Board (CDB). Here, in response to the CDB’s request, we followed an approach where both the crop and study areas were selected based on expert opinions and the interest of the client. The Bangladesh Cotton Development Board hosted and supported designing this research. Based on their expert opinions, two climate hotspots—the High Barind Tract and the High Ganges Floodplain—were selected. The research sites are in the northwest and southwest parts of the country respectively under two different agro-ecological zones. The Barind Tract’s climate is warm and humid. This region is relatively drier than many parts of Bangladesh and Rainfall mainly occurs during the monsoon season. The area is also experiencing water scarcity in its topsoil during the dry season. Climatic Data and Model: Data from Rajshahi and Chuadanga BMD stations were used to analyze the climatic condition of the High Barind Tract zone and High Ganges Floodplain, respectively. As there are variations in rainfall data at a micro-scale, the study only used satellite data, which is available for the past 20 years (1998–2017) to develop local-level climatic patterns. It used precipitation and temperature data from BMD weather stations and grid wise-satellite data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) system. Chuadanga and Rajshahi have been analyzed using BMD data. As there are no BMD stations in Nachol and Porsha Upazilas (in Chapai Nawabganj and Naogaon districts, respectively, of the High Barind Tract) the research used National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Satellite TRMM_3B42_daily data. Data Manipulation and Analysis: From the very early stage of research design to the final report submission, scientists from the CDB were involved in this research. For example, the research team presented the research design, initial findings, and final recommendations to the CDB colleagues to obtain their feedback and ensure the research was relevant to their future operational plan. This meant that, in addition to an extensive literature review, field-based assessment, and meteorological data, the research was also informed by the suggestions and perceptions shared by various relevant stakeholders. The research team undertook the field research and interacted with different stakeholders as learners, treating informants as mentors. Information was carefully documented, and all data cross-checked with informants to try to ensure the emerging storyline was not influenced by the researchers’ values and bias.

Source of Information: Sustainability 2021, 13, 574.

Article Link (Online Journal): https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020574; https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

In the above discussion, we explained the possible impacts of climate change on cotton cultivation in two geographic settings of Bangladesh. The timely and appropriate action to adapt cotton production to respond to the likely impacts of climate change could potentially improve the economic value of cotton, which already has a huge market in Bangladesh’s growing readymade garments sector. Climate change could have a significant negative impact on the production and productivity (yield) of cotton due to low seeding rates, hydric stress of plants due to lack of moisture, the resistance of caterpillars, and declining soil fertility levels. Any or all of these adverse factors would directly affect the income and livelihood security of cotton farmers. In Bangladesh, cotton producers are predominantly from low-income groups that have extremely limited resources to adapt to adverse climatic conditions. The consequences of climate change would potentially increase production costs and decrease yields. Consequently, cotton cultivation could result in a decrease in their net income and, in the worst case, debt. Thus, changes in climate conditions would create a potential threat to cotton production in Bangladesh and bring the risk of increased poverty and reduced well-being to cotton farmers in rural areas. Finally, it is important to note that this research was hosted by the Cotton Development Board of Bangladesh and they are using this research to inform their strategies and plans. They also want to replicate this research in other cotton-growing regions to make localized decisions on expanding cotton production. In addition, is probably the first time that a value chain approach has been adopted to understand the impact of climate change on any crop in Bangladesh. Thus, there is a potential for other agricultural departments to use this approach to inform their decision-making. This research was also extremely useful in developing institutional partnerships between the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, CDB, and International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD). Going forward, these partnerships can support capacity development in all these organizations and facilitate more informed decisions in the fight against climate change impacts on agriculture in Bangladesh.

Knowledge Management: Journal