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Temperature and Rainfall Variability in Teknaf Upazila of Bangladesh

Lutfun Nahar*
Geophysics Lab, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi-6205, Bangladesh

Mumnunul Keramat
Geophysics Lab, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi-6205, Bangladesh

Syed Mustafizur Rahman
Geophysics Lab, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi-6205, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

This study determines the trends and the significant changes in the time series of temperature and rainfall data. Variations in temperature and rainfall in Teknaf Upazila are studied on the daily data from 1977 to 2017. It has been observed that the annual maximum temperature increased significantly at the rate of 0.037 ⁰ C/Year. During summer period the temperature is increased at the rate of 0.041 ⁰C/Year. The annual minimum temperature increased significantly at the rate of 0.044 ⁰C /Year. During winter period the temperature is increased at the rate of 0.054 ⁰C/Year. In time series analysis, mean annual maximum temperature shows the increasing trend with a coefficient of 0.46, while mean annual minimum temperature shows the increasing trend with a coefficient 0.26. The frequency distribution of annual maximum temperature above 30 ⁰ C has been increasing continuously. The frequency distribution of summer period temperature is increased about 50% and 71% for the range of 30-33 ⁰C and 33-36 ⁰ C respectively in two cycle operation. It has identified that the mean annual minimum temperature of 28-30 ⁰ C has been recorded more than 70% of the annual days. In addition, this work has also shown that the seasonal rainfall trend is increasing with the coefficient 0.121. The results have shown significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature, and rainfall. The increasing trend is further higher over last 21 years (1997-2017) than that of last 41 years (1977-2017).

Keywords: Temperature, Rainfall, Trend Analysis, Frequency Distribution and Cyclic Operation.

Location: Teknaf Upazila of Bangladesh

Start Date: 00-00-1977

End Date: 00-00-2017

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Non-commodity: Temperature, Rainfall

Objectives:

Rainfall and temperature are the two most important driving factors for year-to-year variability in crop production and the available water resources. Stream flow is primarily driven by change in precipitation (Milliman et al.,2008), which is intimately related to water availability. Furthermore, rain-fed agriculture directly depends on the magnitude and temporal distribution of the rainfall. The global average precipitation is likely to increase, although at regional and continental scales, this may either increase or decrease (Dore, 2005). This work aims to investigate annual and seasonal trends of temperature and rainfall records to understand the recent climate of the study area.

Methodology:

The location of the study area is Teknaf, an Upazila of Cox's Bazar District in the Division of Chittagong, Bangladesh. The Teknaf Upazila, the southeastern edge of Bangladesh, stands in the trans-boundary of Bangladesh and Myanmar occupying an area of about 389 sq. km between latitude 21°10" N and 20°40" N and longitude 92°05" E and 92°25" E. It belongs to exposed coast bounded by hilly area and Ukhia Upazila on the north, the Bay of Bengal on the south and west and on the east the Naaf River and Myanmar coast. The area is blessed with a warm tropical climate and sufficient rainfall which enable to support a wide biological diversity.

3. Data and Methods In the present study, the temperature and rainfall data of Teknaf Upazila have been considered to analyze the climate change of this area. The daily maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall for 41 years over the period 1977-2017 are collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD).

The descriptive statistical methods are used in data analysis with summarize data using indexes such as mean, standard deviation and inferential form.

The detection, estimation and prediction of trends and associated statistical and physical significance are important aspects of climate research. Simple linear regression is most commonly used to estimate the linear trend (slope) and statistical significance.

Source of Information: Rajshahi University Journal of Environmental Science, 7, 93-104, 2018

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

This study has investigated annual and seasonal climatic variability in Teknaf Upazila of Bangladesh based on maximum and minimum temperature, and rainfall. Deviation from the natural climatic pattern, a different tendency of temperature and rainfall was one of the focusing of this research. Findings have shown that the annual maximum and minimum temperature increasing rates are respectively 0.037 ⁰C/Year and 0.044 ⁰C /Year. While, seasonal increasing rates are 0.041 ⁰C /Year and 0.054 ⁰C /Year respectively. Moreover the maximum temperature has been increased dramatically over the last 21 years (1997-2017) with a rate of 0.052 ⁰C /Year. Rainfall is obtained for the same region is slightly increasing trend for both the annual and seasonal period.

Knowledge Management: Journal