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Modeling of Aquatic Infectious Disease in Bangladesh

Nandita Roy
Discipline of Agrotechnology, University of Khulna, Khulna, Bangladesh.

Nilimesh Halder
Discipline of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Khulna, Khulna, Bangladesh.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The fishery is considered an emerging farming sector in Bangladesh and plays an important role in annual economic growth. This emerging industry is facing several hindrances and the infectious disease of fish is one of them. In the early days, fish disease research was on various respects of pathogens rather than investigating dynamics of disease spread in aquatic population. Vast amounts of data are available on the responses of these pathogens to environmental and host-related factors and generally statistical modeling of those data could be used to understand the relative importance of the factors influencing the spread of disease. In particular, the data obtained from aquaculture systems could be robust in formulating mathematical model due to the fewer assumptions involved. Thus, nonlinear relationships between various factors affecting disease outcome can be evaluated more efficiently and realistic predictions can be obtained using mathematical models. In this study, we formulate a SIR epidemic model for aquatic infectious disease to investigate the disease dynamics. The goal of this study is to assess the basic concept of disease modeling for aquatic infectious disease and provide insight into the relative importance of parameters playing a major role in disease outbreaks.

Keywords: Aquatic infectious disease, Mathematical modeling, SIR mode, Fishery, Pathogens,

Location: The discipline of Agrotechnology, University of Khulna, Khulna, Bangladesh.

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Animal Health and Management

Commodity: Diseases

Objectives:

To assess the basic concept of disease modeling for aquatic infectious disease and provide insight into the relative importance of parameters playing a major role in disease outbreaks.

Methodology:

Compartmental modeling of infectious disease dynamics: A compartmental model of infectious disease dynamics is a model in which members of a host population are assigned to compartments on the basis of their infectious status or other attributes and the changes in the size of compartments are described as a dynamic system. The basic model of such kind is also known as the SIR model with birth and death rate which is first stated by (Kermack and McKendrick, 1927). The whole population N of a SIR model is subdivided in three different sub-classes as the Susceptible class S, the Infected class I and the Recovered or removed class R. The Susceptible class S are those individuals who are not infective but who are capable of contracting the disease and becoming infective. The infective class I are those individuals who are infected with pathogens and capable of transmitting the disease to others. The Recovered or removed class R are those individuals who have had the disease and died or had the disease and recovered and/or become permanently immune and/or been isolated from the susceptible until recovery and permanent immunity occur. In the disease transmission model, we assume that the aquatic population will be in closed form i.e., there is no birth and death. Initially, the whole population would be susceptible with very few infected as introduced population. We also assume that all infected populations will be recovered after a certain period of time. It is assumed that indirectly transmitted diseases, the dynamics proceed according to the mass action theory, namely that the net rate of hosts becoming infected is the product of the density of S individuals times the density of I individuals. Thus, the number of successful contacts made between S and I (infectious) determines the magnitude of the disease outcome.

Source of Information: Journal of Fisheries International, Volume 5 Issue 1, 2010, Page No. 8 - 13

Article Link (Online Journal): DOI: 10.3923/jfish.2010.8.13; URL: https://medwelljournals.com/abstract/?doi=jfish.2010.8.13

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

In brief, large amounts of data have been accumulated on various pathogens of fish in Bangladesh (BFRI, 2004; DOF, 2005). However, the list of things that we do not know includes many issues of fundamental, practical, and theoretical importance about aquatic disease. The main reason for this gap is that the disease itself has not been in focus but the pathogen. Mathematical modeling is one approach to studying disease itself and guides us to take necessary steps in controlling and preventing diseases.

Knowledge Management: Journal