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Status of Price Variations of Fish, Livestock and Poultry Products: a Case Study in Gazipur District of Bangladesh

M. T. Parvin
Department of Agribusiness, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur 1706, Bangladesh

M. R. Amin
Department of Agribusiness, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur 1706, Bangladesh

D. C. Acharjee
Department of Agribusiness, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur 1706, Bangladesh

G. M. M. Alam
Department of Agribusiness, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur 1706, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

This study examined the pattern of price variations of major fish, livestock and poultry products in Gazipur district of Bangladesh. The secondary data on the average wholesale and retail prices of ten important commodities for a period of six years (June 2014 to June 2019) were collected from the Department of Agricultural Marketing (DAM) under the Ministry of Agriculture of the Government. The averages were calculated from a total of 1900 wholesalers and 2450 retailers in Gazipur district. The polynomial trend model was used to understand the nature of changes in the prices of the selected commodities and to make short-term forecasting. The model revealed a different pattern of price change for different commodities in both wholesale and retail markets. In case of mutton, egg (chicken), egg (duck), beef, and silver carp fish, it was highly upward sloping which indicates that the price of these commodities will increase at an increasing rate in the upcoming years. A moderately increasing rate of price change was observed for katla fish in both the markets while for broiler, indigenous chicken and rohu fish, it was found a downward sloping. On the contrary, the projection indicates that the price of tilapia fish would remain stable in the near future. Such a scenario suggests that the market monitoring system should be strengthened by the government to control the extreme increase or decrease in prices so that none of the stakeholders would be the gainer nor looser from the pricing policy in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Bangladesh, Retail price, Poultry products, Broiler, Market monitoring, Stakeholder

Location: Gazipur district, Bangladesh

Start Date: 00-06-2014

End Date: 00-06-2016

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Market analysis, Socio-economic status, Price behavior

Objectives:

To understand the nature of price changes of major fish, livestock and poultry products in Gazipur district of Bangladesh.

Methodology:

This study is based on the secondary data collected from the Department of Agricultural Marketing (DAM) of the Ministry of Agriculture, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. Gazipur district, the adjacent district to the capital of Bangladesh, was chosen purposively for this study where people of different income groups particularly low and middle-income ones live together. The data covered the average wholesale and retail prices of 10 important commodities which are chicken (broiler and indigenous), beef, mutton, egg (chicken and duck), and fishes including medium-sized rohu, Katla, tilapia and silver carp for the period of 6 years from June 2014 to June 2019. These commodities are considered as the main source of protein needed for an active and healthy life. Moreover, the sample included a total of 1900 wholesalers and 2450 retailers of the selected commodities in the Gazipur district. As the collected price data reveal a fluctuating nature, the polynomial trend model was used to understand and make an inference of future rise or fall in prices of these selected commodities in the Gazipur district of Bangladesh. In time series modeling, the polynomial trend line provides simple but flexible and smooth variation in time. Through polynomial functions, a well-approximated trend of the dependent variable can be estimated and is often adequate for short-term forecasting (West and Harrison, 1989; Mendenhall and Beaver, 1994). Data that is polynomial in nature is generally described by: y = a + xⁿ Where, a = intercept, x = independent variable, y = dependent variables, n = nature of polynomial trend lines (e.g. square, cubic, etc.) (Hayes, 2019). Other things remaining the same, it was assumed in this study that price is changed over the years. Therefore, the year acted as an independent variable whereas the dependent variable was the price of individual commodities selected under this study.

Source of Information: Ann. Bangladesh Agric. (2020) 24 (1) : 99-112 ISSN 1025-482X (Print); 2521-5477 (Online)

Article Link (Online Journal): www.doi.org/10.3329/aba.v24i1.51939

Funding Source:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The sub-sectors of agriculture such as fisheries, livestock and poultry play a vital role in ensuring nutritional security and income of the households in Bangladesh. However, a considerable variation in the prices of these products is generally supposed to affect the production pattern and consumption decisions on a large scale. Price variations might be caused by a number of factors such as weather, nature of the product, the extent of disease invasion, price of feed, the purpose of buying, infrastructural and market conditions, political instability, number of intermediaries in the market and so forth. The ultimate result of such variation is the imbalance between overall supply and demand causing the price to rise or fall in the market. This is what has been examined in the present study using the average price data of a total of 1900 wholesalers and 12450 retailers of the selected fish, livestock and poultry products in Gazipur district. The aim of the study was to understand the nature of price changes of these commodities so that farmers and traders are able to plan their business activities appropriately while consumers are able to adjust their food budget.

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