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Decision-making for Rabi Cropping in the High BARInd Tract of Bangladesh: a Farmer Perspective

A. Orr
Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Chatham Maritime, Kent ME4 4TB, United Kingdom

M. A. Jabbar
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur, Bangladesh

M.A. Mazid
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Regional Station, Rajshahi, Bangladesh.

B. Karmakar
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Regional Station, Rajshahi, Bangladesh.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

A farmer perspective on improving agricultural productivity in the High Barind Tract was developed through the analysis of farmer decision-making at both the plot and whole-farm levels. A decision tree was constructed to model the decision to sow dryland rabi crops. The tree incorporated 11 separate decisions that included a combination of climatic, physical, and socioeconomic variables. A validation exercise showed that the tree correctly predicted 78% of the outcomes. Household survey data were used to analyze socio-economic factors that influenced rabi cropping. Harvest dates were the same for both long-duration Swarna and short-duration MVs (modern high-yielding varieties), suggesting that farmers minimized transaction costs when hiring harvest labor. The harvest labor contract delayed rabi sowing by one week because of the need for straw to dry. Resource-poor farms were less likely to grow MV T. aman rice because they had more highland with poorer soils and because they needed to maximize yields on sharecropped plots. Rabi cropping was also most intensive on resource-poor farms because of the need to make the best use of limited land. Farmers recognized the potential to increase the area under rabi crops if rice was harvested earlier. However, time of harvesting was determined by Swarna, which occupied 80% of the area planted to T. aman rice. We conclude that rice-based interventions will have limited impact on agricultural productivity in the rabi season until breeders have developed a variety with a shorter field duration that will be as widely adopted as Swarna.

Keywords: Rabi crops, HBT, Sow rabi cops, Decision-making, High Barind Tract, Farmer perspective

Location: Rajshahi District, Bangladesh

Start Date: 00-00-2000

End Date: 00-00-2005

Program Area: Crop-Soil-Water Management

Commodity: Cropping System

Objectives:

The general objective of this paper is to explore the factors determining farmers’ decisions to sow rabi crops in the HBT.

Methodology:

Data: Information on farmers’ decision-making for rabi came from the following sources. Two household surveys were conducted in Rajshahi District in 2002 and 2005. The first surveyed 91 farmers from 12 villages in Godagari, Nachole, and Tanore thanas in Rajshahi District (Orr and Jabbar 2002b). The survey was conducted in March 2002 after the harvest of the T. aman crop planted in 2001 and the planting of rabi crops harvested in 2002. Originally, it was intended to re-survey households that had participated in an earlier weed management survey conducted for the T. aman crop in 2000 (Orr and Jabbar 2002a) but this was not possible in all cases. Of the 119 farmers from Rajshahi District surveyed in 2000, however, the majority were re-surveyed for the rabi crop in 2001. Hence, both the T. aman 2000 and rabi 2002 surveys cover largely the same farmers. The second household survey sampled 80 farmers from 6 villages from Godagari and Nachole thanas. Of these, 43 (54%) were OFT farmers while 37 (46%) were non-OFT farmers. The survey was conducted in two rounds in 2005, round one in October after the first weeding of the T. aman rice crop and round two in December after the planting of the rabi crop harvested in 2006. A qualitative study of farmer decision-making was made for a sample of 9 OFT farmers in the 2004 rabi season in order to develop a decision tree (Orr et al 2005). This decision tree was tested with a subsample of 29 of the 80 farmers surveyed in 2005. Of these, 21 (72%) were OFT farmers while 8 (28%) were non-OFT farmers. Gladwin (1989) has described in detail the methodology of hierarchical decisiontrees. A decision tree can be defined as a sequence of discrete decisions that have to be made before a particular outcome can be chosen. Briefly, a decision tree contains three elements: * The choice of alternatives appears at the top of the tree and must represent an either-or choice. In this case, the alternative was posed as “sow rabi, don’t sow.” The set of alternatives must contain all the possible outcomes at the foot of the tree. * The decision criteria are the set of factors that is actually considered in order to reach the final outcome(s). These may be either mutually exclusive alternatives ordered on a particular feature or aspect of these alternatives, or constraints that must be overcome or “passed” to reach a particular outcome. An example of the latter is the decision criterion “Is seed available for the chosen rabi crop?”, which determines whether the farmer has sufficient labor to weed. Decision criteria admit only two outcomes (yes/no). * Decision outcomes are located at the ends of the paths of the tree and represent the results of a particular decision criterion. Following Gladwin (1989), the term “outcome” is used to mean “action taken” and not the outcome of an action in terms of yield or revenue that might include no action. Choice alternatives are shown in a set at the top of the tree denoted by the decision criteria at the branches or nodes of the tree denoted and the decision outcomes denoted by at the ends of the paths of the tree.

Source of Information: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), 2008. ISBN 978-971-22-0229-2

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Achievement/Findings:

A farmer perspective on increasing agricultural productivity in the rabi season was developed by identifying the factors that determined farmers’ decisions at the plot level and by analyzing some socioeconomic factors that might influence decision-making at the whole-farm level. A decision tree showed that the decision to sow a rabi crop on any given plot involved 11 separate decisions and was determined by a combination of physical, climatic, and socioeconomic variables. Overall, the decisive factor was the availability of residual soil moisture. However, farmers’ ability to take advantage of soil moisture might be limited by socioeconomic factors such as shortages of labor and draft power. Even when these resources were available, farmers might be unable to sow chickpea because of a lack of seed, or unsuitable soils, or because they had exceeded what they perceived as the optimum sowing date. When sufficient soil moisture was not available after harvest, farmers had the option of relay-sowing a rabi crop into standing rice before harvest. Farmers’ decision to relay crop depended on their expectation of yield. Several socioeconomic factors were found to determine the scope for rabi cropping at the whole-farm level. Rice varieties were harvested at the same time irrespective of field duration. This probably reflected the high transaction costs of hiring harvest labor on large farms. The zin harvest contract, where straw was left in the field to dry after cutting, delayed rabi sowing by 1 week. Resource-poor farms were more likely to cultivate highland with poorer soils than other farms. They were also less likely to grow MV T. aman, perhaps because land was less suitable but more likely because, as sharecroppers with limited land, they needed to maximize rice yields to feed their families after sharing half the crop with the landlord. Despite these disadvantages, the intensity of rabi cropping was highest on resource-poor farms. Again, this reflected the need to make the most of limited land even when yields were poor. Farmers recognized that they could increase the area planted to chickpea if rice was harvested earlier. They estimated that it was possible to double the area planted to rabi crops if rice harvesting could be advanced by 1 week. While this estimate need not be taken literally, it demonstrates the potential within the system for improving productivity through rabi cropping. If the key to unlock this potential is earlier harvesting, how can this be best achieved? Is it through DSR or short-duration varieties or both? The socioeconomic findings suggest that these interventions will not necessarily lead to earlier harvesting if most of the area planted to rice continues to be dominated by long-duration varieties such as Swarna. The key to unlocking agricultural productivity in the HBT is therefore to develop a rice variety that can match the performance of Swarna and yet be harvested 2 weeks earlier.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings