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Research Detail

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Muhammed Muqtada
Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), House - 6/2 (7th & 8th floors), Block - F Kazi Nazrul Islam Road, Lalmatia Housing Estate Dhaka - 1207, Bangladesh

During the past two decades, the economy of Bangladesh experienced a fairly sustained macroeconomic stability and was able to achieve substantial growth in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is evidence to suggest that, this growth has neither been inclusive nor has it been able to bring about the structural change needed to sustain higher growth. The paper contends that macroeconomic policy-making would require a rethink in order to meet the above challenges. The present paper reviews the current macroeconomic policy framework and underscores the need for balancing its usual emphasis on stability, with the need for structural change and social inclusion. This, in turn, would require an expansionary macroeconomic policy, albeit cautious, that focuses robustly on stepped-up investment, job growth, and reduction of inequality and vulnerability. To this end, the paper explores the critical role of monetary, fiscal, external and financial inclusion policies, and how far these could address the above challenges. Macroeconomic policies focused simply on stability and a status quo budget, cannot deliver the desired employment and inclusion outcomes unless these also address and accommodate various associated sectoral, labour market and social inclusion measures.

  Export-oriented, Industries, Anti-export, Economy
  In Bangladesh
  
  
  Comparative study
  Income generation, Micro-finance, Labor

The main objective of the policies was to promote export-oriented industries by removing the anti-export bias in the economy.

During the 1980s, Bangladesh faced an acute crisis of resource imbalances. In an incipient economy, there were huge burdens on public expenditure relative to the insignific5. ant revenue base, which caused unsustainable fiscal deficits. The large number of loss-making state enterprises in the then largely nationalized economy added to the resource burden, and the country’s development expenditures were hugely met through donor resources. The monetisation of government deficits and adverse movements in terms of trade, especially in the aftermath of the second oil-price shock, contributed to a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic imbalances. These led to significant fiscal and current account deficits, and an increase in the inflation rate during the mid-1980s.5 Fiscal deficit stood at nearly 10 per cent of GDP, while inflation went up to around 12 per cent during the first half of the 1980s. Stabilisation reforms were predominantly focused on restraining fiscal and current account deficits, and lowering the inflation rates. These were accompanied by various liberalisation measures (related to trade and finance) and structural adjustment programmes (e.g. privatisation, rationalization of sectoral loans and subsidies, among others). While many analysts questioned the pace and sequencing of these programmes, as well as the initial (social) costs and impact on the economy, the reforms had helped the Bangladesh macroeconomic framework gain a stronger footing (Mahmud, 2004; Osmani, 2008; Ahmed and Mahmud, 2006). By the widely accepted indicators of stabilisation, Bangladesh, since the turn of this century, has witnessed a comfortable stretch of macroeconomic stability. Figure 1 shows that fiscal deficits, since the mid-1990s, have been well below the widely accepted yardstick of 5 per cent. The current account has been in surplus during most of this period, except in the very recent past. Fourth, in order to attain sustained growth towards a middle-income country, Bangladesh would need to undergo a substantial structural transformation that would be commensurate with the foundations of growth associated with a higher-income economy. Such a transformation is observed not just in terms of sectoral changes in GDP, but also in terms of the shifts in the sectoral shares in total employment. In particular, this is associated with tangible increases in the modern sector’s share in total employment. The latter characterises rising labour productivity in the economy, with labour force shifting away from low-productivity agriculture to high-productivity manufacturing and the modern services sectors.13 Although the employed workforce in agriculture is declining, and manufacturing employment is growing, the changes are slow. Despite the fact that the agriculture sector’s share in GDP has fallen sharply, the share of the employed workforce in agriculture has changed little over 1995—2013. Similarly, another yardstick for a movement toward structural change is the gradual increase in the share of employment in manufacturing, which too has remained comparatively low. It may be noted that, a relatively higher level of growth in employment in the industries sector in most periods (between 4 to 8 per cent), compared to that in agriculture ((-) 0.1 to 4 per cent) and services sectors (between 1 to 5 per cent), have contributed to mild changes in the structure of employment in the economy. More importantly, the incremental contribution of employment by the industries sector has gradually increased over time—from only 17.9 per cent in 2002-03 to 68.3 per cent in 2013. In fact, this incremental contribution of the industries sector was much higher than what it contributed to GDP during the same period. Nevertheless, these changes in sectoral employment trends are inadequate to characterise a structural transformation. Agriculture sector credit policy, including ‘directed lending’ by encouraging all commercial banks to extend lending to the sector with subsidies support from Bangladesh Bank’s refinancing schemes. The latter characterises rising labour productivity in the economy, with labour force shifting away from low-productivity agriculture to high-productivity manufacturing and the modern services sectors.13 Although the employed workforce in agriculture is declining, and manufacturing employment is growing, the changes are slow. Despite the fact that the agriculture sector’s share in GDP has fallen sharply, the share of the employed workforce in agriculture has changed little over 1995—2013. Similarly, another yardstick for a movement toward structural change is the gradual increase in the share of employment in manufacturing, which too has remained comparatively low. It may be noted that a relatively higher level of growth in employment in the industries sector in most periods (between 4 to 8 per cent), compared to that in agriculture ((-) 0.1 to 4 per cent) and services sectors (between 1 to 5 per cent), have contributed to mild changes in the structure of employment in the economy.

  CPD Working Paper -115, July 2018
  
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

The broad objective of macroeconomic policy is to contribute to economic growth and social well-being in an equitable and sustainable manner. Bangladesh is committed to achieve the goals of the 2030 Agenda, which embody the pursuit of an equitable society through an inclusive growth strategy. A macroeconomic policy would need to spearhead such a strategy. In doing so, the study has argued that the overriding challenge of macroeconomic policy in Bangladesh would precisely be in giving effect to the dual mandate of achieving macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth, as mentioned in the MPS. At the risk of repetition, the first steps towards designing a macroeconomic policy framework for inclusive growth would require, inter alia, a rethinking of a macroeconomic policy framework that goes beyond attaining ‘intermediate variables’ of stability, and focuses robustly on growth, employment and income (Stiglitz et al., 2006; Bhaduri, 2005). The challenges identified are— high and sustained growth and structural transformation to reach the UMIE status by 2031, reduction in continuously rising inequality, measures to deal with weak employment performance, addressing the unacceptably high incidence of a vulnerable population, among others. This would require strategic planning, including a more aggressive fiscal and monetary stance. The present paper has reviewed the usual macroeconomic policy instruments, and their current practices in Bangladesh. Regarding monetary policy, it has been observed that Bangladesh has maintained a comfortable stretch of price stability, and inflation has been relatively low. Monetary instruments which have an imprecise control over inflation targets, have been complemented by low budget and current account deficits to help sustain low inflation. One must note that, it would be difficult to get on to the much-anticipated higher growth path of achieving UMIE under the parameters that currently define existing stability conditions. This would involve, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests, ‘upgrading’ of macroeconomic practices to cope with various challenges. In the monetary sector, one such practice is the use of the market-determined ‘policy rate’. Despite various reforms undertaken to strengthen the banking and financial markets, the ‘policy rate’ (as understood in a developed money/financial market), cannot be applied since the ‘transmission mechanisms’ are very weak, and financial infrastructure is underdeveloped. This will require greater financial deepening, strengthening of credit and debit markets, and interbank transactions and integration. Given the recent trends in price stability, the monetary policy needs to adjust its ‘inflation only’ priority, and focus equally forcefully on its employment/inclusive growth mandate. This would entail stimulations and incentives to enhance domestic savings and investment, and boost aggregate demand. Private investment in Bangladesh is relatively low compared to its Asian comparators who have achieved higher growth and structural transformation. Financial markets are not only weak, but also fraught with anomalies, unacceptably high loan defaults and outright scams, especially in the PCBs and SCBs, which have shaken investors’ confidence. This requires firm action to institute an efficient regulatory and accountable framework. Financial sector deepening needs to factor in an inclusive financial structure, whereby access to credit markets can be extended to unbanked and underbanked populations and regions, the ‘rural connect’ in particular. This would also help ease credit market imperfections and the skewed credit distribution, as currently exist. The financial inclusion initiatives would need to step up within a strategic policy and regulatory framework. Such opportunities and access to credit for the disadvantaged poor, the small farms and enterprises, if appropriately designed and expanded through a comprehensive MPS and regulations, can by itself be an important redistributive measure, which could reduce the transfers and fiscal burdens.  However, macroeconomic policies cannot, on their own, deliver desired employment and inclusion outcomes in the economy. Productive employment generation and state welfare are contingent on an integrated set of policies that would include various sectoral, labour market and institutional measures, which have to be incorporated in a dedicated budget. The present study has underscored the need for budget prioritization, especially in a relatively low revenue—GDP ratio scenario, in order to yield greater fiscal space, and identified measures to pursue the government’s stated goals of growth and equality. The paper also underscores the need for a measured fiscal expansion, to step up public investment to complement the slow growth in private investment, as well as to meet the needs of UMIE growth path through structural reforms and infrastructure development. Fiscal policy is not only about financing development, but also a political statement of the government regarding its stance on the economic and social well-being of the people. Public policy and public expenditure will be critical for a more focused social inclusion, i.e. a budget for social inclusion through a closer review of priorities in both revenue and expenditure portfolios. Closely linked to the above is the imperative of maintaining external stability. This is of paramount importance in not only maintaining low inflation but also in enhancing competitiveness. Maintaining a steady REER is crucial to supporting employment through growth and diversification of exports. 

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