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Climate Change and Its Impact on Environment, Agriculture and Water Use at Rajshahi

Samarendra Karmakar*
Bangladesh Centre for advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abu Hassan
Environment & Population Research Centre (EPRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Attempts have been made to highlight Global warming and global sea surface temperature together with the climatic trends of mean dry-bulb temperature and rainfall at Rajshahi. The annual mean temperature at Rajshahi has a sharp increasing trend of 0.013°C/year during the period 1981-2016. The seasonal mean temperature has increasing trends in pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons during 1981-2016, having the rates of increase 0.021, 0.024 and 0.004 °C/year respectively and during the winter season has a slightly increasing trend during the period 1990-2016. The annual rainfall at Rajshahi during the period 1981-2016 has decreasing trend at a rate of 6.968 mm/year. This decreasing rate is alarming and is likely to cause drought at Rajshahi in the future. The seasonal rainfall has decreasing trends during the monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons, having the maximum decreasing rate of 6.433 mm/year in the monsoon season. This indicates that the drought condition is likely to increase at Rajshahi even in the monsoon season. Inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability exists at Rajshahi as well as in Bangladesh. The rise in temperature at Rajshahi will have a profound effect on agriculture. Due to less availability of water, the climate is changing at Rajshahi. Temperature is increasing and rainfall is decreasing. The frequency of heatwaves in summer and cold waves in winter is increasing. Production of agricultural crops is decreasing as per the perception of community people.

Keywords: Agriculture and Community people, Climate Change, Environment.

Location: Rajshahi station of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)

Start Date: 00-00-1981

End Date: 00-00-2016

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Commodity: Climate change, Environment

Objectives:

The present study aims at the analysis of temperature and rainfall together with the frequency of heatwaves and cold waves at Rajshahi to see the trends of these elements and their impacts on the environment, agriculture and the use of water especially in the Rajshahi region. Community perception on the impact of climate change on agriculture and water at Rajshahi has also been investigated.

Methodology:

Daily data on maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean dry-bulb temperature and daily rainfall at Rajshahi station of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) for the period January through December of 1981-2016 have been used to study the climatic pattern in Rajshahi. From the daily data, monthly, seasonal mean and annual mean values have been computed for the four seasons e.g. pre-monsoon southwest monsoon, post-monsoon and winter. It is important to note that for the computation of seasonal mean values for the winter season, the data in December of one year has been used with the data in January and February of the following year to represent the winter mean value of the following year (e.g. mean data of December 1981, and January and February of 1982 represent the mean data for the winter of 1982 and so on). The daily maximum and minimum temperatures are used to find the frequency of heatwaves and cold wave and their trends are studied.

To obtain the community’s idea about climate change and its impacts on the environment, agriculture, water use etc, a workshop was organized at Rajshahi in collaboration with a local NGO and community people.

3. GLOBAL WARMING According to IPCC, the global average air temperature near the Earth's surface is found to rise by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C during the hundred years ending in 2005. It was emphasized that human-caused global warming brings serious threats from increased flooding to the spread of disease to the disruption of agriculture in many parts of the world. The global average and combined land and ocean surface temperature, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets. The total increase between the average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003– 2012 period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C, based on the single longest dataset available (IPCC, 2013). Global Sea surface temperature is rising and the oceans are warming. Over the period 1961 to 2003, global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10°C from the surface to a depth of 700 m (IPCC, 2007).

Source of Information: Journal of Engineering Science 09(1), 2018, 11-20

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

On the basis of the present study, the following conclusions can be drawn: i. The trend in annual mean temperature at Rajshahi has a sharp increasing trend at 0.013°C/year during the period 1981-2016. The seasonal mean temperature has increasing trends in pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons during 1981-2016, having 0.021, 0.024 and 0.004°C/year respectively. The mean temperature in winter has decreasing trend at 0.007°C/year. It is interesting to note that the mean temperature during the winter season has a slight increasing trend during the period 1990-2016. ii. The annual rainfall at Rajshahi during the period 1981-2016 is decreasing trend at 6.968 mm/year. This decreasing rate is alarming and is likely to cause drought at Rajshahi in the future. The seasonal rainfall during pre-monsoon monsoon at Rajshahi has an increasing trend 0.723 mm/year. The seasonal rainfall at Rajshahi has decreasing trends in other seasons. The rates of decrease are -6.433, -0.669 and -0.532 mm/year during the monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons respectively. Of these, the monsoon season has the maximum decreasing rate of -6.433 mm/year. This indicates that the drought condition is likely to increase at Rajshahi.

iii. The frequency of minimum temperature less than 10⁰C (cold waves) over Rajshahi during 1981-2016 varies from 7 to 39 days in a year at Rajshahi and it has an increasing trend at 0.035 days/year. The annual frequency of days with maximum temperature >36°C has an increasing tendency at Rajshahi at 0.655 days/year during 1981-2016. iv. The continuation of the increase in the annual frequency of days with minimum temperature <10°C and maximum temperature >36°C i.e. cold waves and heat waves would have tremendous impacts on the agriculture sector and food security (crops, animals, etc.) in the future and the situation would be more aggravated in Rajshahi. v. Inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability exists at Rajshahi. The rise in temperature at Rajshahi will have a profound effect on agriculture. vi. Climate change will affect the use of water and its quality at Rajshahi. Drought is likely to affect Rajshahi in the long run. Agricultural patterns are likely to change too. vii. Because of the less availability of water, the climate is changing at Rajshahi. Temperature is increasing and rainfall is decreasing. The frequency of heat waves in summer and cold waves in winter is increasing. Production of agricultural crops is decreasing. viii. Climate change adapted crop patterns should be innovated so that crops can withstand the stresses due to rising trends of temperature and decreasing trends in rainfall at Rajshahi. Appropriate adaptation techniques should be developed for facing the challenges of climate impacts in long-term perspectives.

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