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Potential Effect of Sea Level Rise on the Livelihood of Beel Dakatia and Local Adaptation Techniques: Peoples’ Perception

Md. Shahjahan Ali*
Department of Civil Engineering, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna-9203, Bangladesh

Khaled Syfullah
Department of Civil Engineering, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna-9203, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The South-West coastal region of Bangladesh is adversely affected by Sea Level Rise. To investigate the impacts of sea-level rise in Beel Dakatia region, six villages named Kalitala, Kalibari, Krishna Nagar, Tolna (south), Baniapukur and Dakatia were surveyed and peoples opinion regarding SLR induced permanent inundation was analyzed. The livelihood parameters are categorized in five social dimensions. Education and health is considered as human capital; road network, housing and safe water as physical capital; water bodies and agricultural lands are considered as natural capital; income as financial capital and social security is considered as social capital. Considering the present resilience of the people as 100%, the resilience of human, physical, natural, financial and socio-economic capitals are estimated to be reduced by 55%, 53%, 87%, 60% and 64%, respectively against one ft permanent inundation. For two ft permanent inundation, the resilience of people at human, natural, physical and socio-economical dimensions are estimated to be reduced by 72%, 71%, 96%,73% and 73%, respectively. For the adaptation against one ft permanent inundation in the area, local people think that they will be able to cope with the adverse effect applying local adaptation techniques. Most of them think that proper maintenance of three sluice gates situated at Salua Bazar, Amvita and Thukla Bazar can reduce the effect of SLR-induced permanent inundation significantly. If two ft inundation occurs and the water stands for a long time then they will have to leave the place.

Keywords: Adaptation, Beel Dakatia, Climate Change, Livelihood Capitals, Sea Level Rise.

Location: In Beel Dakatia region, six villages named Kalitala, Kalibari, Krishna Nagar, Tolna (south), Baniapukur and Dakatia

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Commodity: Sea level, Livelihood

Objectives:

The main objective of this study was to investigate the impacts of SLR-induced permanent inundation on the livelihood of Beel Dakatia based on local people’s perceptions. The vulnerability of the different livelihood parameters was also estimated and the people’s opinion on the local adaptation techniques for the mitigation of the impacts was analyzed.

Methodology:

A questionnaire survey was conducted in six villages of Beel Dakatia region to accumulate the local peoples’ opinions about the effect of SLR-induced inundation on their livelihood, and their local adaptation techniques. To investigate the local people's opinion about their resilience on different livelihood parameters, PRA tool were used. PRA Stands for Participatory Rural Appraisal which aims to incorporate the knowledge and opinions of rural people in the planning and management of development projects and programs. Five livelihood capitals named Humen Capital, Physical Capital, Natural Capital, Financial Capital, and Social Capital were considered in PRA process. Here, the sub-parameters were chosen based on the recent research of Khan et al., 2010. Education and health were considered as sub-parameter of human capital; Road networks, housing and access to safe water were considered as sub-parameter of physical capital; water bodies and agricultural land were considered as sub-parameter of natural capital; Income was considered as sub-parameter of financial capital; Social security were considered as sub-parameter of social capital. The questionnaire survey includes 2 key scenarios: (a) possible future impacts on livelihood parameters if one ft (30.5 cm) permanent inundation occurs and (b) possible future impacts if two ft (61cm) permanent inundation occurs in the study area. The survey was also conducted to investigate the local peoples’ opinion about the future adaptation techniques for SLR.

The vulnerability of the different livelihood parameters due to permanent inundation of one ft (30.5 cm) and two ft (61 cm) is estimated using the method suggested by McLaughlin (2001) is used. In this method, three conditions i.e. probability of occurring the hazard of different parameters, the risk that might occur and preparedness of the local people were considered. The probability, risk and preparedness are also defined with appropriate ratings to obtain vulnerability. Mathematically,

Vulnerability = Probability × Risk × Preparedness The probability, risk and preparedness are also defined with appropriate ratings. Multiplying the ratings for probability, risk and preparedness of different parameters, ratings are classified into three categories: ≤15, 16 to 30, and ≥ 30, which are marked as low vulnerable, moderate vulnerable and high vulnerable respectively. The ratings were multiplied for each case and the total values, in descending order, represent the parameters most in need of organization focus and resources for emergency planning.

Source of Information: Journal of Engineering Science 03(1), 2012 68-78

Article Link (Online Journal):

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Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

To investigate the impacts of sea-level rise in Beel Dakatia region, six villages named Kalitala, Kalibari, Krishna Nagar, Tolna (south), Baniapukur and Dakatia were surveyed and peoples opinion regarding SLR induced permanent inundation was analyzed. The result indicates that the water bodies and the agricultural lands are the most vulnerable sub-parameter in the Beel Dakatia region. All the parameters are found to be moderate to highly vulnerable for a two ft SLR induced permanent inundation situation. On average, for one ft permanent inundation, the people's resilience is likely to be reduced from 100% (assumed present resilience) to 36%. The people's capacity will be further reduced by 13% if a two ft permanent inundation occurs. People are thinking to mitigate the effect of SLR locally, which is very limited corresponding to their needs. So, the development and implementation of adaptation policies and taking initiatives for mitigation measures are the right ways to respond to sea-level rise impacts.

Knowledge Management: Journal