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Changing Climate and Surface and Ground Water Related Issues in Dhaka

Bushra Monowar Duti*
Professional, Climate Change Study Division, Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), House# 6, Road# 23/C, Gulshan-1, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh

Rifat Quamrul Alam
Professional, Climate Change Study Division, Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), House# 6, Road# 23/C, Gulshan-1, Dhaka-1212, Bangladesh

M. Monowar Hossain
Executive Director
Institute of Water Modelling (IWM), House# 496. Road# 32, New DOHS, Mohakhali, Dhaka-1206, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The study focuses on Dhaka’s present condition in the water sector considering both climate change and human-induced issues in a broader aspect. It attempts to find the changes in local rainfall and temperature along with groundwater and surface water conditions. The study finds that in the last 50 years Dhaka is facing 0.018 degree Celsius per year increase in average temperature. Seasonal average rainfall trends show an overall increase ranging from 0.007 mm to 0.042 mm per year, though a decreasing trend is seen in maximum pre-monsoon and maximum monsoon rainfall in the last 50 years. The future projection shows that the annual average temperature will predominantly increase in the upcoming years. The analysis also revealed that the reduction rate of groundwater level in Dhaka is about 1 m per year and Dhaka’s wetland has reduced to a shocking 1.37% from 38.27% in the last 40 years.

Keywords: Climate Change, Dhaka, Ground Water, Rainfall, Surface Water, Temperature.

Location: Dhaka, Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Commodity: Climate change

Objectives:

The overall objective of the study is to analyze the present scenario of surface water and groundwater condition in Dhaka city along with the climatic condition, both in the past and the projected future, to provide a holistic understanding of Dhaka’s future risk to be exposed to a more vulnerable climatic condition in a very constrained water resources condition. The specific objectives are-

Analyze the climatic condition of Dhaka along with future projection
Review present condition of Dhaka’s water sector, both groundwater and surface water

Methodology:

2. LOCATION OF THE STUDY AREA: The study area is the Dhaka metropolitan area. The peripheral rivers surrounding the area are Turag, Balu, Tongi Khal and Buriganga. Dalai Khal, Gerani Khal, Segunbagicha khal, Begunbari khal, Dhanmondi lake, Ramna lake, Crescent lake and Gulshan lake, all are part of the unique wetland system of Dhaka. For rainfall and temperature analysis, the whole area is considered under the meteorological station of Dhaka of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). For groundwater analysis, three areas within the metropolitan were selected-Lalbagh, Motijheel and Mirpur. The whole area is considered to find the extent of surface water encroachment.

3. METHODOLOGY Climatic parameters i.e. rainfall and temperature are analyzed to find a historical trend. The analysis includes annual average, annual maximum and seasonal average and a seasonal maximum of the parameters. The season is distributed such as December-January-February as dry period, March-April-May as premonsoon, June-JulyAugust-September as monsoon and October-November as post-monsoon. For the analyses, daily data from 1961-2008 is used which is collected from BMD. Using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) tool, the correlation value (Pearson) and statistical significance of the correlation (using two-tailed test) is found out. Climatic prediction data of 2020-2070 (decadal) is collected from the Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) on a basis of monthly projection to further evaluate the future scenario in Dhaka. Dhaka’s present groundwater scenario is assessed by analyzing groundwater data at specific points of the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) well. The selected stations are DHA-009(Lalbagh), DHA-010(Mirpur), AND DHA-013(Motijheel), where the recent abstraction of groundwater has been extensive. The further focus has been given in analyzing the extent of encroachment of the wetlands in Dhaka from collected satellite image analyses of two different years, one from 1967 (Corona Space Photo) and another from 2010 (Landsat5 TM Satellite Image), to visualize the change in Dhaka’s wetland within 40 years time span. Some review has also been done considering the surface water quality. Thus, Dhaka’s vulnerability in an ever-increasing demand for water resources is evaluated on a broader scale, considering human-induced changes and climate change.

Source of Information: Journal of Engineering Science 03(1), 2012 161-169

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The increased precipitation rate due to the estimated changes to occur in near future in our climate will increase drainage congestion in Dhaka as all-natural wetlands are being encroached and filled for settlement and agricultural activities. The daunting condition will aggravate as groundwater condition is more upsetting. An increase in temperature might make the lives of the city dwellers more difficult in this all-encompassing hazardous environment. In the present rate of increase of population, Dhaka has a very looming future not far from today, as water is becoming the most stressed natural resource in this city, both due to human interference and the possible impact of changing climate.

Knowledge Management: Journal