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Forecasting Potato Production in Bangladesh by Arima Model

Md. Moyazzem Hossain*
Department of Statistics, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka-1342, Bangladesh

Faruq Abdulla
Department of Statistics, Islamic University, Kushtia-7003, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Bangladesh is recognized as a rice-eating nation; nevertheless, large quantities of potatoes are produced and consumed each year. In Bangladesh, potato has gradually gained popularity. Potato is used as food crop as well as vegetable by both the poor and rich people. Recently, the government has been trying to diversify food habits and encourage potato consumption to reduce pressure on rice. In this regard, potato can play an important role as an alternative and a multipurpose food crop of Bangladesh. This study considered the published secondary data of yearly potato production in Bangladesh over the period 1971 to 2013. The best selected Box-Jenkins ARIMA model for forecasting the potato production for whole Bangladesh is ARIMA (0,2,1). The comparison between the original series and forecasted series shows that the fitted model behaved statistically well and is suitable to forecast the potato productions in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Potato, Time series analysis, Forecasting, Bangladesh.

Location: In Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Knowledge Management

Commodity: Modeling

Objectives:

Recently, the government also has been trying to diversify food habits and encourage potato consumption to reduce pressure on rice. In this regard, potato can play an important role as an alternative and a multipurpose food crop of Bangladesh. Thus it is too much essential to estimate the production of food grains which leads us to do this research. The main purpose of this research is to identify the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model that could be used to forecast the production of potatoes in Bangladesh.

Methodology:

2.1 Data Source This study considered the published secondary data of yearly potato production in Bangladesh which was collected over the period 1971 to 2013 from the website of Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO).

2.3 Box-Jenkins Methods The influential work of Box-Jenkins (Box and Jenkins [30]) shifted professional attention away from the stationary serially correlated deviations from the deterministic trend paradigm toward the ARIMA, paradigm. The basic steps in the Box-Jenkins methodology consist of the following five steps: Preliminary Analysis: Create conditions such that the data at hand can be considered as the realization of a stationary stochastic process. 2.3 Box-Jenkins Methods The influential work of Box-Jenkins (Box and Jenkins [30]) shifted professional attention away from the stationary serially correlated deviations from deterministic trend paradigm toward the ARIMA, paradigm. The basic steps in the Box-Jenkins methodology consist of the following five steps: Preliminary Analysis: Create conditions such that the data at hand can be considered as the realization of a stationary stochastic process.

2.4 Evaluation of Forecast Errors

Before forecasting the production it is necessary to check the accuracy of the fitted model. There are many summary statistics available in the literature for evaluating the forecast errors of any model, time series or econometric. Here, an attempt is made to identify the best models for potato production in Bangladesh using the following contemporary model selection criteria, such as MASE, RMSPE, MPFE and TIC.

Source of Information: Journal of Advanced Statistics, Vol. 1, No. 4, December 2016

Article Link (Online Journal): https://dx.doi.org/10.22606/jas.2016.14002

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

A time series model is used to identify the patterns in the past movement of a variable and uses that information to forecast the future values. This study tried to fit the best model to forecast the potato production in Bangladesh with the help of the latest available model selection criteria such as AIC, BIC, etc. The best selected Box-Jenkins ARIMA model for forecasting the potato for whole Bangladesh is ARIMA(0,2,1). The comparison between the original series and forecasted series shows the same manner indicating fitted model is statistically well behaved to forecast the potato productions in Bangladesh i.e., the models forecast well during and beyond the estimation period to a satisfactory level. Thus, these models can be used for policy purposes as far as forecasting potato production in Bangladesh. Potato in Bangladesh is produced once a year. Farmers face many hardships and make the struggle to obtain a satisfactory yield over the cultivation period, but when it comes to marketing, the revenue of their production is unsatisfactory, and as a result, the farmer falls into debt again. Most of the farmers are illiterate in Bangladesh. Dissemination of market information should be increased so that farmers can get fair price of the potato. Potato farming is assuming a greater dimension, however bringing pressure on the government to expand its use as alternative food in the domestic sector while looking for greater export markets in overseas trade.

Knowledge Management: Journal