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Effects of Climate Change on Rice Production at Khulna District, Bangladesh

Nuralam Hossain*
Faculty of Urban Construction and Environmental Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400045, China

ASM Saifullah
Department of Environmental Science and Resource Management, Mawlana Bhashani Science and Technology University, Santosh, Tangail-1902

Shameem Hassan Bhuiyan
Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Ministry of Defense, Dhaka-1207, Bangladesh

Nasir Uddin
Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Bangladesh

Mijanur Rahman
Climate Change and Protected Area Management Officer, USAID’s Climate Resilient Ecosystems and Livelihoods, South-West Region, Khulna, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

In Bangladesh 164 million people depend on rice but due to climate change (CC) vulnerabilities the yield of rice is severely reducing. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the effects of CC on rice yield using recent trend analysis, Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and correlation. For this study, the required climate and selected rice production data were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE), Khulna. In time series statistics both parametric and nonparametric methods were applied to detect a monotonic trend of climatic variability and Aman rice production. Correlation between climatic variability and rice production was also investigated. The study exposed that the temperature and rainfall had an increasing trend and statistically significant whereas the relative humidity found decreasing. Overall, the bright Sunshine had positive trend but week. According to nonparametric trend test of climatic variability and Aman yield only minimum temperature showed a positive trend which found statistically significant. In contrast, Mann-Kendall trend test revealed that rainfall had positively significant while temperature had negative significant. The correlation revealed the Aman production is a strong response with minimum temperature whereas the Lona Coche showed a positive correlation with maximum temperature. The variation of Aman production exhibited a positive correlation with both Rainfall and humidity respectively and Lona Coche found a negative correlation. The sunshine had a week correlation against both yields. The findings suggest should give attention of temperature-tolerant rice varieties to mitigate possible adverse effects of CC.

Keywords: Climate change, Trend analysis, Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Rice Production, Bangladesh

Location: Khulna district, Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Commodity: Climate change, Rice

Objectives:

Acid sulphate soil occupies a significant part of the area, where it is extremely acidic during the dry season. Most of the top soils are acidic and sub soils are neutral to mildly alkaline (Rimi et al. 2009). Therefore, the main objective of this study was to explore the effects of CC on rice (two specific varieties) production by statistical analysis of recent trend, Mann-Kendall (MK) test and correlation.

Methodology:

Study area This study was conducted at the Koyra upazila under Khulna District of Bangladesh. The occupying area is 1775.41 sq km, located in between 22°12´ and 22°31´ north latitudes and in between 89°15´ and 89°26´ east longitudes. It is bounded by Paikgacha upazila on the north, the Bay of Bengal and Sundarban on the south, Dacope upazila on the east, Assasuni and Shyamnagar upazila on the west. The main water bodies Main rivers: Dharla, Pasur, Arpngachia, Taldhup, Malancha, Kobadak, ball; Koyra canal is notable (Masud et al. 2014; Banglapedia 2014). As the study area is located near the world largest mangrove forests named Sundarbans (UNESCO, world heritage site). The highest temperature observes in April and May while lowest in December and January. The region has high relative humidity (80-90%) with mean annual rainfall ranges from about 1900mm to 2500mm. June, July and August are the wettest months while December, January and February the driest (Hossain et al. 2016).

Data acquisition and interpretation The required rice production and climate data, specifically of Khulna were gathered from authentic organizations. The climatic data (maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and bright sunshine) was assembled from Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD 2013). The district level rice production data on selected variety (Aman-Upshi and Lona Coche-local variety) were collected from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) Khulna for the period of 1994 to 2010. The rice yield data was not recoded previous years of 1994. The independent variables of this study were maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and the sunshine. The computation of climatic variability and yield production was done with the help of XLStat software for non-parametric analysis.

Data analyses In the present study, the linear and monotonic trend was investigated mostly annual, seasonal and monthly time series data with short term and long-term pattern of climatic variability and yield in the study area. The parametric method is used so that sum of squared error becomes the least. In trend analysis, it is most widely accepted techniques and is most robust in case of normally distributed data. Where the distribution of the variable is not Gaussian the non-parametric technique be more appropriate in the analysis of trend. Both parametric and non-parametric techniques were used to investigate the trend in different climatic variable and yield in order to their relative strength and weakness. In parametric and non-parametric trend test were applied by employing t-test and Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’ Slop estimation.

Trend Analysis and examined effects on Rice Production In order to know the variability of each climatic parameter and rice yield during the period of 1980-2010, the analysis work is done recent trend to identify the variation of each climatic parameters. The data were analyzed in year basis to explore the recent variation. To find out a variation of annual rice production against the various climate variables a possible correlation has done.

Source of Information: Environment, Earth and Ecology Vol. 3 No. 1 (2019), 42 – 54

Article Link (Online Journal): DOI: 10.24051/eee/110398

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The study attempted to examine the effects of climate change on specific rice variety between high yield variety Aman (Upshi) and Lona Coche (local variety). The effects of climate change on rice yield depend on actual patterns of climatic factors also differences of local growing seasons, crop management. Both higher level and lower level of temperature may decrease rice yield due to spikelet sterility and higher respiration losses. The time series analysis exhibited that, the trend of temperature and total rainfall had an increasing which was statistically positive whereas the relative humidity had found decreasing. Overall, the bright sunshine had positive trend but week. In addition, the nonparametric trend test of climatic variability and Aman yield only minimum temperature showed a positive trend which statistically significance. In contrast, Mann-Kendall trend test found, rainfall had positively significant while temperature had negatively significant. The findings indicated that the climatic variables have substantial effects on the both production of Aman and Lona Coche. According to correlation, the Aman production had a strong response with minimum temperature whereas the Lona Coche showed a positive correlation with maximum temperature. The variation of Aman production exhibited a positive correlation with both Rainfall and humidity respectively and Lona Coche found a negative correlation. The sunshine had a week correlation against both yields. Due to climate change effect, the production of Lona Coche has been affected; it means that the variety cannot tolerate the lower temperature, excessive rainfall and high relative humidity. The future challenge would focus on salt and temperature-tolerant high yield rice varieties to mitigate possible adverse effects of CC to ensure sustainable agriculture.

Knowledge Management: Journal