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Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh

Susmita Dasgupta
Lead Environmental Economist, Development Research Group, World Bank

Md. Moqbul Hossain
Principal Scientific Officer, Soil Research Development Institute, Ministry of Agriculture, Bangladesh

Mainul Huq
Consultant, World Bank

David Wheeler
Senior Fellow, World Resources Institute

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

It is a virtual certainty that sea-level rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4 deci-Siemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region.

Keywords: Climate Change, Coastal Areas, Soil Salinity, Agriculture, Rice Production

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Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Climate change, Rice

Objectives:

Resources will remain scarce, and mobilizing a cost-effective response will require an integrated spatial analysis of salinity diffusion, its socioeconomic and ecological impacts, and the costs of prevention, adaptation and remediation. The temporal and geographic pattern of appropriate adaptive investments will depend critically on the expected intensity and diffusion rate of salinization in different locations. This paper will attempt to contribute by addressing two critical components of the problem: soil salinity changes in the coastal region of Bangladesh, and their consequences for the economics of HYV (high-yielding variety) rice production in the region.

Methodology:

3. Study Area It comprises 140 upazilas in four regions of southern Bangladesh: Barisal (38 upazilas), Chittagong (30), Dhaka (13) and Khulna (59). Identifies these upazilas by region, district and sub-district, as well as summarizing available information on HYV rice yields. The study area spans the southern coastal regions of Bangladesh, with extensions to permit assessment of current and future salinity further inland. Study teams have collected available data on agricultural production for the period 2000-2012 from local offices in each upazila. In many cases, we believe that these data have not previously been available for empirical research.

4.2 Soil Salinity While the Dasgupta study provides a trove of new evidence on salinity change in Bangladesh’s coastal rivers, no comparable assessment of soil salinity has been undertaken until now. For this study, the Bangladesh Soil Research Development Institute has provided measures from 41 soil salinity monitoring stations for the period 2001-2009. Average monthly station measures for 2001-2009, color-coded in five groups for visual comparison with the distribution of readings from the river stations. The distribution of soil salinity measures bears some resemblance to the riverine distribution, particularly in the concentration of high salinity in central Khulna. However, It reveals some marked differences as well. For example, the soil salinity measures in Barisal are relatively higher than their riverine counterparts.

4.3 Determinants of Soil Salinity As we noted in the Introduction, one major objective of this study is an econometrically estimated model that can be used to project soil salinity for HYV rice production areas in the coastal region of Bangladesh through 2050. In our model, land-based measures of soil salinity are related to salinity measures from nearby river stations via annual flooding and water table infusion. Logically, infusion effects and salinity should decline with elevation. In addition, dilution from precipitation should produce a negative relationship between soil salinity and rainfall. Finally, measured soil salinity rises with temperature because our soil salinity measure is based on electrical conductivity, which is greater at higher temperatures.

4.4 Data Our data set includes monthly soil salinity measures from 41 stations for the period 2001-2009, provided by the Bangladesh Soil Research Development Institute; water salinity measures from 29 stations for 2000-2008, provided by Dasgupta et al. (2014); elevation data from DIVA-GIS;6 and monthly temperature and rainfall data from 20 BMD weather stations for 1990-2010.7 As Figures 3, 4 and 5 show, the monitoring stations for soil salinity, river salinity and weather are located in different places, at varying distances from one another. Estimation of equation (1) requires juxtaposition of soil salinity, river salinity, temperature and rainfall at soil monitoring locations. For river salinity, we incorporate measures for all river stations within 30 km of each soil salinity monitor. We capture relative diffusion impacts using weights for river stations that are inversely proportional to their squared distances from the soil stations. For weather stations, we use observations for the station that is closest to each soil salinity monitor.

Source of Information: Policy Research Working Paper 7140 Development Research Group December 2014

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Achievement/Findings:

The government of Bangladesh is aware of the expected adverse effects of climate change on HYV rice production in the coastal region, and invested in promoting suitable adaptation measures. Bangladesh Rice Research Institute is conducting research on salt-resistant varieties of rice. Salt resistant rice: BRRI Dhan 47 was released by the country’s National Seed Board in 2007, and now can be found in a growing number of coastal community markets at the same price as conventional rice.20 Another salt-resistant variety of rice, BINA Dhan 10 was introduced by Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture in 2012. Government agricultural extension officials are providing training on cultivation of salt resistant varieties of rice. However, the future of these initiatives will depend on relative profitability as well as on adaptability of farmers and acceptance by consumers. Compilation of location-specific adaptation alternatives and costing of adaptation is the subject of our ongoing research.

Knowledge Management: Journal