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Research Detail

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Khondoker Abdul Mottaleb
Socioeconomics Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Texcoco, Mexico

Dil Bahadur Rahut
Socioeconomics Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Texcoco, Mexico

Gideon Kruseman
Socioeconomics Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Texcoco, Mexico

Olaf Erenstein
Socioeconomics Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Texcoco, Mexico

Purpose – Population and income are growing rapidly in South Asia, spurring the demand for food in general, and the demand for higher-valued food items in particular. This poses particular food security challenges for densely populated and emerging countries, such as Bangladesh. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the increasing and changing cereal consumption pattern in developing countries using Bangladesh as a case. Design/methodology/approach – Using Bangladesh’s Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2000, 2005a, b data, and applying a two-stage quadratic almost ideal system estimation procedure, the present study separately estimates the expenditure elasticities for rural and urban households for five food items: rice, wheat and rice and wheat products, pulses, fish and vegetables. Second, using the estimated elasticities, projected population and the per capita GDP growth rates, this study projects the consumption of the sampled food items by 2030. Findings – This study demonstrates that in 2030 both rural and urban households in Bangladesh will consume more wheat, pulses and fish, but the urban households will consume less rice compared to the current levels of consumption in 2015. Originality/value – To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study on developing countries that examines the evolving food items consumption separately by rural and urban households. Using Bangladesh as a case, this study warns that with rapid urbanization and income growth, developing countries need to supply more wheat, fish and pulses. The provision of the maximum usage of scarce resources, such as arable land, the development and dissemination of improved varieties and the best management practices must be ensured to boost domestic food production in developing countries to cater to the future evolving food consumption.

  Consumption, Wheat, Urban, Rural, Income, Population, Rice, Cereals
  In Bangladesh
  
  
  Comparative study
  Dietary intake

The present study shows that overall wheat, pulses, fish and vegetables are the normal food items, the consumption of which may increase, but the total rice consumption may decline in Bangladesh. Although the present study uses Bangladesh as a case study, changing food consumption patterns at the household level are taking place across Asia and Africa: changing from rice to wheat, or maize to wheat and rice (FAO, 2016). Particularly, striking is the similarity in increasing wheat consumption across developing countries under the rising income and population scenarios. This indicates the wider policy relevance of the study beyond the Bangladesh case.

2.1 Data This study primarily relies on Bangladesh’s HIES data collected in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by the BBS. In the first stage, the BBS selects primary sampling units (PSUs) consisting of specific geographical locations, and in the second stage, it randomly selects 20 households from each PSU that represent rural and urban areas. In HIES 2000, BBS selected 442 PSUs and surveyed 7,440 households of which 5,063 were from the rural areas and the rest were from urban areas. In HIES 2005a, BBS selected 504 PSUs and surveyed 10,080 households of which 6,040 were from the rural areas, and the rest were from urban areas. In HIES 2005b, 1,000 PSUs were selected and they surveyed 12,240 households of which 7,840 were from the rural areas and the rest were from urban areas.

The HIES 2000, 2005a, b data on household-level consumption are quite detailed. The consumption of food items both in quantity and expenditure was divided into 17 major food categories. The households were asked to describe their consumption habits during a two-week period. The major food categories were cereals, pulses, fish, eggs, meat, vegetables, milk and dairy products, sweets, oil and fats, fruits, drinks, sugar and molasses, tobacco and related items, spices and betel leaves including betel nuts. An analysis of a complete demand system consisting of separate equations for all items in 17 major food categories would require a substantial amount of computer memory and time. For simplicity, the present study analyzed the demand systems considering a subset of food items commonly consumed by the sampled households: cereals, pulses, fish and vegetables. Among the cereals, rice (grain), and wheat ( flour) and other rice and wheat products, such as rice cakes, biscuits and miscellaneous rice and wheat products are separately treated. As the five food categories are the most commonly consumed items, and as the others are sporadically consumed food items, policy implications based on the present study can provide deep insights into the evolution of the basic food consumption pattern in Bangladesh by rural-urban affiliation of the households. Note that in HIES 2000, the expenditure information on vegetables for 84 households was missing; in HIES 2005a, information on vegetable expenditure for 783 households was missing, and such information was missing for 1,229 households in HIES 2005b. Thus, the study is based on 28,384 households from HIES 2000, 2005a, b, of which 19,471 are rural households and 8,913 are urban households.

2.2 The demand model The present study considers a two-stage budgeting procedure, assuming that households allocate the total food expenditure in two stages. In the first stage, the household decides how much of its total food budget is to be allocated to the consumption of the sampled food items that consist of rice, wheat and rice and wheat products, fish, pulses and vegetables only, conditional on the total food and non-food expenditure and demographic characteristics of the household. In the second stage, the household distributes its resources on the selected food items with an aim to maximize the utility, considering prices of the sampled food items.

  British Food Journal Vol. 120 No. 2, 2018 pp. 392-408 © Emerald Publishing Limited 0007-070X
  DOI 10.1108/BFJ-12-2016-0620
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

More than 65 percent of the global projected population increase will take place in the poorer developing countries in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In addition to the increase in population, a number of developing economies in these regions are growing rapidly economically. The increase in population and income are affecting the food consumption patterns across these regions. On the one hand, households are consuming more food; on the other, the households are consuming more value-added food items. Against this critical backdrop, it is important to understand food consumption patterns and future trends better so as to adopt effective policies to ensure the food security of the burgeoning population. Using information from more than 28,000 households in Bangladesh over three sampled years (2000, 2005 and 2010), the present study examines the food consumption pattern in a rapidly growing developing economy in South Asia. Considering the changes in population and income, this study demonstrates that overall the consumption of wheat in Bangladesh will increase with the increase in income and rapid growth in urban population. In contrast, the overall consumption of rice may decline in the future due to the same factors: rapid per capita income growth and the growth in urban population.

At present, Bangladesh is largely self-sufficient in rice production; however, for wheat, Bangladesh faces even bigger challenges in relation to domestic wheat production and moving toward any potential national wheat security. Even more drastic and critical alternatives would be needed to enhance domestic wheat production while taking into account the comparative advantages. Wheat consumption has been increasing globally including in urban centers and in countries with limited domestic wheat production. This often implies increasing strains on net wheat importers and reliance on fickle world markets and volatile prices. Heavy reliance on imports to meet domestic wheat consumption might indeed not be a feasible or sustainable option for developing countries, such as Bangladesh, with surging wheat demands. Development and research are therefore actively exploring options to sustainably increase wheat production in such settings including the use of improved stress-tolerant crop varieties, management practices and market development. A study indicates that a delay in sowing wheat seed from optimum date November 17 reduces wheat yield in Bangladesh by 26.3 percent, irrespective of genetic variation of wheat (e.g. Rahman et al., 2009). A number of studies have found that the machine-drilled line sowing of wheat seed can significantly increase the wheat yield (e.g. Abbas et al., 2009). To disseminate these improved crop management practices, the provision of farmers’ training on integrated crop and resource management should be ensured and the government extension services must be strengthened. New stresses may emerge or exacerbate including biotic stresses such as the recently reported and newly emerged wheat blast disease in Bangladesh.

Finally, it is widely acknowledged that climate change can have significant negative impacts on the production of field crops such as rice and wheat (e.g. Hossain and da Silva, 2013a, b; Mottaleb et al., 2017) particularly in low-lying heat and flood-prone economies such as Bangladesh’s. A 1°C increase in global temperature can reduce wheat yield by 5-7 percent (CIMMYT (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center) and ICARDA (The International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas), 2016). The development and the dissemination of climate smart, modern wheat and rice varieties can play significant roles by mitigating the yield loss and, thus, ensuring production, income and food security, particularly in developing countries. As the research, development and dissemination of such sustainable intensification practices entail substantial costs, international donor agencies should strongly support such efforts, particularly in developing countries.

  Journal
  


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