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Research Detail

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Shardul Agrawala
Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Dhaka

Tomoko Ota
Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Dhaka

Ahsan Uddin Ahmed
Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Dhaka

Joel Smith
Stratus Consulting, Boulder, USA

Maarten van Aalst
Utrecht University, The Netherlands.

Climate change poses significant risks for Bangladesh, yet the core elements of its vulnerability are primarily contextual. Between 30-70% of the country is normally flooded each year. The huge sediment loads brought by three Himalayan rivers, coupled with a negligible flow gradient add to drainage congestion problems and exacerbate the extent of flooding. The societal exposure to such risks is further enhanced by Bangladesh’s very high population and population density. Many projected climate change impacts including sea-level rise, higher temperatures (mean temperature increases of 1.4°C and 2.4°C are projected by 2050 and 2100 respectively), evapotranspiration losses, enhanced monsoon precipitation and run-off, potentially reduced dry season precipitation, and increase in cyclone intensity would in fact reinforce many of these baselines stresses that already pose a serious impediment to the economic development of Bangladesh. A subjective ranking of key climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for Bangladesh identifies water and coastal resources as being of the highest priority in terms of certainty, urgency, and severity of impact, as well as the importance of the resources being affected. There are also some examples of development policies and priorities in Bangladesh that might potentially conflict with climate change responses. In particular, policies to encourage tourism and build tourism infrastructure in vulnerable areas of the coastal zone, particularly the Khulna region, might need to take into account the projected impacts of climate change to reduce the risk of maladaptation. Meanwhile, plans to encourage eco-tourism in the fragile Sundarbans might risk adding one more stress to a fragile ecosystem that will likely be critically impacted by sea-level rise and salinity concerns. The Bangladesh case study also highlights the importance of the transboundary dimension in addressing climate change adaptation. The effect of water diversion upstream on dry season flows and salinity levels in the Sundarbans was in fact comparable to (if not higher than) the impact that might be experienced several decades later as a result of climate change. Adaptation to climate change might therefore not just be local but might require cross-boundary institutional arrangements such as the Ganges Water sharing treaty to resolve the current problems of water diversion. Finally, climate change risks should also not distract from aggressively addressing other critical threats, including shrimp farming, illegal felling of trees, poaching of wildlife, and oil pollution from barge traffic, that might already critically threaten the fragile ecosystems such as the Sundarbans even before significant climate change impacts manifest themselves.

  Climate change, Economic development, Planning, Assistance policies, Natural resource, Management
  In Bangladesh
  
  
  Risk Management in Agriculture
  Climate change, Environment

The overall objective of the project is to provide guidance on how to mainstream responses to climate change within economic development planning and assistance policies, with natural resource management as an overarching theme.

Climate: baseline, scenarios, and key vulnerabilities- This section briefly reviews projections of temperature and precipitation change for Bangladesh from climate models, and then addresses the major risks from climate change that Bangladesh may face. The sectoral risk is presented in order of importance. This order is based on subjective judgments about the significance of climate change impacts (which is a function of severity and importance of the affected resource), timing of impacts (whether the impacts are likely to be significant or noticeable in first half of this century or not until the latter half), and certainty of impact (any uncertainties about the relationship with climate change or the nature of the climate change itself). Current climate: Bangladesh has a humid, warm, tropical climate. Its climate is influenced primarily by monsoon and partly by pre-monsoon and post-monsoon circulations. The southwest monsoon originates over the Indian Ocean and carries warm, moist, and unstable air. The monsoon has its onset during the first week of June and ends in the first week of October, with some inter-annual variability in dates. Besides monsoon, the easterly trade winds are also active, providing warm and relatively drier circulation. In Bangladesh, there are four prominent seasons, namely, winter (December to February), Pre-monsoon (March to May), Monsoon (June to early October), Post-monsoon (late October to November). The general characteristics of the seasons are as follows: * Winter is relatively cooler and drier, with the average temperature ranging from a minimum of 7.2 to 12.8°C to a maximum of 23.9 to 31.1°C. The minimum occasionally falls below 5oC in the north through frost is extremely rare. There is a south to the north thermal gradient in winter mean temperature: generally, the southern districts are 5oC warmer than the northern districts. * Pre-monsoon is hot with an average maximum of 36.7°C, predominantly in the west for up to 10 days, very high rate of evaporation, and erratic but occasional heavy rainfall from March to June. In some places, the temperature occasionally rises up to 40.6°C or more. The peak of the maximum temperatures are observed in April, the beginning of the pre-monsoon season. In the pre-monsoon season, the mean temperature gradient is oriented in the southwest to the northeast direction with the warmer zone in the southwest and the cooler zone in the northeast. * Monsoon is both hot and humid, brings heavy torrential rainfall throughout the season. About four-fifths of the mean annual rainfall occurring during the monsoon. The mean monsoon temperatures are higher in the western districts compared to that for the eastern districts. Warm conditions generally prevail throughout the season, although cooler days are also observed during and following heavy downpours. * Post-monsoon is a short-living season characterized by withdrawal of rainfall and gradual lowering of night-time minimum temperature. The mean annual rainfall is about 2300mm, but there exists a wide spatial and temporal distribution. Annual rainfall ranges from 1200mm in the extreme west to over 5000mm in the east and north-east (MPO, 1991). Temperature and precipitation: Changes in area-averaged temperature and precipitation over Bangladesh were assessed based upon over a dozen recent GCMs using a new version of MAGICC/SCENGEN. MAGICC/SCENGEN is briefly described in Box 1. First results for Bangladesh for 17 GCMs developed since 1995 were examined. Next, 11 of 17 models which best simulate current climate over Bangladesh were selected. The models were run with the IPCC B2 SRES scenario (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000)3. Sea level rise: Another critical variable that determines the vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change impacts is the magnitude of sea-level rise. There is no specific regional scenario for net sea-level rise, in part because the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is still active and the morphology is highly dynamic. Literature suggests that the coastal lands are receiving additional sediments due to tidal influence, while there are parts where land is subsiding due to tectonic activities (Huq et al. 1996). Since the landform is constituted by sediment decomposition, compaction of sediment may also play a role in defining net change in sea level along the coastal zone. Agriculture: With over 35% of Bangladeshis suffering from malnourishment (Lal et al., 2001), the threat of increased hunger from the reduction in agricultural production would suggest the inclusion of agriculture as one of the major vulnerabilities facing the country. Yet the IPCC (Lal et al., 2001) and other studies (e.g., Karim et al., 1996) show crop yields potentially increasing at a few degrees Celsius increase in temperature. Beyond that, particularly as the CO2 fertilization saturates, yields could decrease. For example, Karim et al. (1996) estimated that rice yields would increase for about a 1.5°C increase combined with higher CO2 levels.

  COM/ENV/EPOC/DCD/DAC(2003)3/FINAL
  
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

Bangladesh is critically vulnerable to climate-induced hazards, but the core elements of its vulnerability are primarily contextual. It is probably the only country in the world with most of its territory lying on the deltaic flood-plain of three major rivers and their numerous tributaries. Between thirty to seventy percent of the country is normally flooded each year. The huge sediment loads brought by these Himalayan Rivers, coupled with a negligible flow gradient add to drainage congestion problems and exacerbate the extent of flooding. The low coastal topography contributes to coastal inundation and saline intrusion inland. Bangladesh also lies in a very active cyclone corridor that transects the Bay of Bengal. The societal exposure to such risks is further enhanced by its very high population and population density, with close to 800 persons per square kilometer in vulnerable areas such as the coastal zones. Very low levels of development and high levels of poverty (between 33 and 40%) add to the social sensitivity to any external hazards. Meanwhile, traditional adaptation via seasonal migration to less vulnerable areas within the Indian subcontinent was probably curtailed significantly half a century ago with the creation of a discrete geopolitical entity (East Pakistan), which subsequently became Bangladesh. The internationalization of the region probably also contributed to water sharing conflicts, most notably the building of the Farakka barrage in India that led to the diversion of dry season flows, which exacerbated salinity concerns in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.

  Journal
  


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