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Climate Change Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources Systems in Developing Countries: a Generalized Framework and a Feasibility Study in Bangladesh

Animesh K. Gain
Corresponding author:
Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Cannaregio 873, Venice 30121, Italy; E-Mail: cgiupponi@unive.it

Carlo Giupponi
Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Cannaregio 873, Venice 30121, Italy

Fabrice G. Renaud
Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), United Nations University, Herman-Ehlers-Strasse 10, Bonn 53113, Germany

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Water is the primary medium through which climate change influences the Earth’s ecosystems and therefore people’s livelihoods and wellbeing. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land-use changes have a direct impact on increasing demand for freshwater resources. Taken together, the net effect of these supply and demand changes is affecting the vulnerability of water resources. The concept of ‘vulnerability is not straightforward as there is no universally accepted approach for assessing vulnerability. In this study, we review the evolution of approaches to vulnerability assessment related to water resources. From the current practices, we identify research gaps and approaches to overcome these gaps a generalized assessment framework is developed. A feasibility study is then presented in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin (LBRB). The results of the feasibility study identify the current main constraints (e.g., lack of institutional coordination) and opportunities (e.g., adaptation) of LBRB. The results of this study can be helpful for innovative research and management initiatives and the described framework can be widely used as a guideline for the vulnerability assessment of water resources systems, particularly in developing countries.

Keywords: Vulnerability, Water resources, Climate change, Decision-making, adaptation, Lower Brahmaputra river basin

Location: In Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Crop-Soil-Water Management

Commodity: Water management, Environmental Impact

Objectives:

To assess the vulnerability of water resources systems for enhanced management strategies, also including robust adaptation measures for future sustainable water use.

Methodology:

The scientific use of the term ‘vulnerability has its roots in geography and natural hazards research but this term is now a central concept in a variety of other research contexts such as ecology, public health, poverty and development, livelihood and food security, sustainability science, land-use change, and climate change impacts and adaptation. Each disciplinary field defines ‘vulnerability’ in different ways. Birkman provides an overview of the evolution of the different spheres of widening vulnerability concepts evolving from intrinsic risk factors to a much broader multidimensional concept, encompassing physical, social, economic, environmental and institutional features. Within such broader vision, different schools of thought have developed and some of them are of specific interest here: (i) the climate change adaptation (CCA) community; (ii) the disaster risk reduction (DRR) community; and (iii) the global environmental change (GEC) and sustainability science community. The assessment of vulnerability is intrinsically linked to the notion of these different schools of thought. Each of these conceptual approaches can lead to the formulation of diverse policies. As a consequence, Eakin et al. suggest that the trade-off between alternative approaches should always be made explicit. Considering water resources systems (WRS), individuals, organizations and society can be considered as a social system which is nested within an ecological system. Therefore, it is the complex interactions of the social-ecological system that make decision making more and more difficult in the WRS and the traditional fragmented approach of water management has to be replaced by more holistic system view approaches [46]. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is such an approach that has been widely accepted internationally as the way forward for efficient and equitable management of water resources. With the aim of providing a quantitative assessment of vulnerability, several indices have been proposed in the field of water resources. Very often, vulnerability assessment of water resources incorporates only physical components consisting, for example, of water scarcity calculations using the water scarcity index which can be defined as the ratio of water demanded to the supplied volumes. Following this index, a number of studies have been carried out at a global scale. However, the annual level assessment of water scarcity does not incorporate the fact of inter-annual seasonality. For example, large parts of monsoon Asia suffer from severe water scarcity in dry periods while the average annual resource availability appears to be plentiful. In addition to this, as stated above, the water scarcity calculation considers water only as a ‘physical resource’, rather than as one component of a much broader and more complex WRS. From the above review, we can summarize some conceptual gaps. Firstly, the lack of consideration of forward-looking aspects (or future aspects) is one of the main shortcomings of vulnerability assessment in general, and vulnerability assessment of water resources systems in particular. Secondly, instead of an annual level assessment of water scarcity, seasonal variations reflecting water abundance and scarcity regimes should be considered. Thirdly, for vulnerability assessment of water resources systems, it is necessary to move from static (usually cartographic) indexes (i.e., physical water scarcity index) to more complex assessments based upon the concept of the social-ecological system. Fourthly, vulnerability assessment should be accomplished through involving stakeholders.

Source of Information: Water 2012, 4, 345-366; ISSN 2073-4441 (www.mdpi.com/journal/water)

Article Link (Online Journal): doi:10.3390/w4020345

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

In this study, the concepts of vulnerability assessment for water resources systems was reviewed, with the aim of facilitating the work of those who are active in the field of water management in developing countries by moving towards operational solutions. We identified several conceptual gaps which were: (i) consideration of forward looking aspects (or future aspects) of vulnerability, (ii) seasonal level assessment reflecting both water abundance and scarcity regimes, (iii) a move towards dynamic assessments based upon the concept of social-ecological system, and participatory modeling. In order to suggest a means to overcome these gaps, we developed a generalized methodological framework for vulnerability assessment and support the identification of preferable adaptation measures. A feasibility study of the proposed framework was carried out in the LBRB. Reflecting the feedback of local experts, some components of the framework were revised and all of them were defined in terms of specific solutions and contents in view of a possible future implementation in the specific context of the LBRB. The proposed framework (in its revised version) organizes the various steps of vulnerability assessment in a transparent way that allows identifying the needs of methods, tools and data. The results of the feasibility study in Bangladesh showed the current main constraints which include: (i) weaknesses in local capacities for water management, (ii) lack of institutional coordination, and (iii) inefficient monitoring and evaluation. However, the feasibility study can benefit water managers in other areas having similar characteristics and problems (e.g., consideration of seasonal variability of water regimes in terms of both floods and droughts; up-stream–down-stream relationships, etc.). Vulnerability assessment in this way may also play a significant role in identifying planned adaptation measures. In the water resources system, climate change adaptation should be framed within existing policies and other regulatory mechanisms and that may require further developments to facilitate mainstreaming. Further research is needed to identify main constraints limiting the potential for vulnerability assessments and climate change adaptation to be implemented into operational water resources management and planning. Such constraints could differ in nature and, in particular, could be related to institutional capacities and the efficient management of collaborative and participatory approaches. Water managers of any river basin or researchers in this field can follow these guidelines in order to assess vulnerability of water resources.

Knowledge Management: Journal