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Research Detail

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Jahangir Hasan Masum
Coastal Development Partnership (CDP), Bangladesh,

Bangladesh regularly faces different types of climatic hazards such as floods, cyclones, heat waves, cold waves, droughts, storms, hail storms, shoreline recession, tidal surges, salinity intrusion, riverbank erosion and relative sea-level rise. Rainfall variability is the key driver for climatic hazards in Bangladesh. Heavy rainfall causes floods, flash floods & landslides and the high rainfall variability causes drought in Bangladesh. Floods, cloudbursts (sudden heavy rainfall), heat stress, rainfall variability and heavy rainfall-induced water-logging are the common climatic hazards in urban areas of Bangladesh. Southern Bangladesh will be more exposed to both temperature & wind-driven climatic hazards while north-western Bangladesh will be more exposed to rainfall-driven climatic hazards. In Bangladesh, poverty-stricken people, floating populations, daily laborers and slum dwellers are highly exposed to multiple climatic hazards. Women are more vulnerable to climatic hazards than men in Bangladesh. The climate of Bangladesh is warming at 1.5 times faster rate than global average warming. The annual mean temperature in Bangladesh is expected to increase around 20C by 2050. The mean sea level rising trend in Bangladesh is around 4 times higher than the global trend. Bangladesh is exposed to 1 cyclone, 145 severe local convective storms and at least 6 tornados per year. In every decade, 60% of the total area of Bangladesh is exposed to at least one extreme flood hazard. Bangladesh receives two-fifths of total storm surge impacts in the World. Bangladesh also receives the strongest thunderstorms and hailstorms in the World. Death tolls from tornados & hailstorms in Bangladesh are the highest in the World. The annual mortality rate from lightning in Bangladesh is 2.4 times higher than the World average. Rural populations are 9 times more exposed to lightning injury than urban populations in Bangladesh. Riverbank erosion in Bangladesh is related to the unpredicted monsoonal river flows due to the changes in the rainfall pattern, rainfall and deltaic topography. Almost one-tenth of the displaced people due to riverbank erosion migrates in urban areas and two-third of people migrate permanently to nearby villages. Around 200,000 people per year are exposed to riverbank erosion in Bangladesh. About 20 of the 64 districts in the country are exposed to riverbank erosion. The frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in Bangladesh will be increased in the future due to global warming, which may increase flood, flash floods and landslides. The increased flood frequency will reduce water quality & safe water access and increase water-borne infectious diseases in Bangladesh. The frequency and intensity of drought is expected to increase in the coming years due to the high variability of rainfall. The northern and northwest regions of Bangladesh will be exposed to drought in every 2 years and also to cold waves in every year during the winter season. Bangladesh will be receiving one severe cyclone hits in every 3 years. The cyclone high-risk areas in Bangladesh will increase by 40% and expose more than 20 million people at risk of cyclone in 2050. The increase in frequency and intensity of different climatic hazards such as riverbank erosion, coastal erosion, cyclone, sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion, storm surge and drought, will accelerate the rate of climate-induced human displacement & forced migration in Bangladesh. By the year 2050, nearly 0.9 million people could be forced to migrate as a result of direct inundation from sea-level rise. Every year nearly 4000 hectares of new land in the coastal area could be exposed to salinity hazards. The population exposed to high salinity is expected to increase around 14 million in 2050. More research is required on multiple-hazard assessment, hazard intensity scales, drought, climate-induced displacement, groundwater salinity and rainfall variability in Bangladesh.

  Climate adaptation, Climate, Hazard mitigation, Measures
  In Bangladesh
  
  
  Risk Management in Agriculture
  Environmental change, Livelihood

To plan and implement climate adaptation & hazard mitigation measures.

Bangladesh is susceptible to climate change with respect to rising temperature, high rainfall variability and rain shortfalls (Rahman & Lateh 2015). The climate in Bangladesh is changing or behaving differently and becoming more unpredictable in recent years (Hoque & Haque 2016; Rahman 2013). The lengths of winter, summer and rainy seasons have increased. Bangladesh ranks 6th among the countries with populations exposed to the multi-hazards (cyclone, drought, and flood) and ranks 2nd for flood hazard (Elizabeth et. al., 2014). Bangladesh regularly faces different types of climatic hazards such as floods, extreme temperatures, droughts, storm surges, tornados, thunderstorms, hail storms, shoreline recession, riverbank erosion tidal surges, landslides, salinity intrusion, coastal erosion and tropical cyclones. Climatic hazards are expected to amplify existing risks and create new risks for the people and environment in Bangladesh. However, the list of official natural disasters in Bangladesh has yet to include tornados, salinity intrusion, landslides, heat-wave and cold waves. Rain is a liquid form of precipitation that falls from the clouds to the Earth surface as water droplets. Precipitation is water in liquid or solid form that falls to Earth's surface from clouds. The main forms of precipitation include rain, snow and hail. In tropical climates, precipitation generally occur in the form of rain and the amount of annual rainfall is largely determined by the strength of the monsoon (Immerzeel 2008; Trenberth 2011). The possibility of experiencing rainfall-driven water-related challenges (such as floods, droughts or groundwater recharge) due to the changes in the monsoon strength & hydrological processes, can be referred as rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Flood is a common climatic hazard in all regions of Bangladesh. The monsoon rainfall drives the flows of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers, consequently causes floods in Bangladesh during the monsoon season (June to September). Floods in Bangladesh are mainly driven by the Brahmaputra river, though the Ganges and Meghna rivers play secondary roles (Hofer & Messerli 2006; Mirza 2011). Heavy monsoon rainfall, low floodplain gradient, high astronomical tide and congested drainage channels causes severe floods in Bangladesh. Most of the low-lying coastal areas of Bangladesh are susceptible to flooding even under normal astronomical tide conditions (Jisan et al., 2018) and strong tidal effects sometimes travel 200 km upstream from the coast (Dasgupta et al., 2015). During the monsoon period, the high astronomical tide usually penetrates landward very frequently and overflow saline water surrounding the coastal region. On June 11th, 2007, more than one-third of Chittagong was flooded due to high tide. Landslide is one of the most common natural hazards in hilly environments (Chisty 2014). Climate-induced landslides often occur in areas composed of unconsolidated rocks or in areas where slope saturation occurs due to excessive rainfall. During the monsoon season, landslides occur frequently in the hilly regions of Bangladesh and causes deaths, loss of homes & damage of assets. During the last five decades, 12 landslides had occurred in the southeast hilly region of Bangladesh (Sarker & Rashid 2013). Drought occurs in almost all climatic regions of Bangladesh due to the high rainfall variability. The drought had occurred 29 times in Bangladesh during the 1950–2011 period. Drought occurs in Bangladesh on an average of 2 to 2.5 years. Devastating droughts are projected to increase in frequency. Drought is more prominent in northern, north-western and south-western regions of Bangladesh. Cyclones are revolving tropical storms formed by low-pressure systems. The low-pressure system evolves due to the changes in sea surface temperature, wind speed, humidity and rainfall. With the increasing sea surface temperatures due to global warming, tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense and more widespread.

  Coastal Development Partnership (CDP), Bangladesh, ISBN: 978-984-34-7002-4
  
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

Bangladesh recurrently faces multiple climatic hazards due to geographical location, geological setting, topography, river dynamics, rising temperature and heavy monsoon rainfall. In Bangladesh, poverty-stricken people, floating populations, daily laborers and slum dwellers are highly exposed to multiple climatic hazards. The cyclone, flood, drought and riverbank erosion are forcing people to migrate from one place to another. Abnormal flooding and rapid riverbank erosions are seriously disrupting human settlement in Bangladesh. Southern Bangladesh will be more exposed to both temperature & wind-driven climatic hazards while north-western Bangladesh will be more exposed to rainfall-driven climatic hazards. Climatic hazards due to both increased temperatures and rainfall variability will reduce agricultural potential in Bangladesh. Climatic hazards driven human displacement & forced migration is already happening in Bangladesh and the rate of such migration is expected to increase in the future. Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of climatic hazards are crucial to manage both current and future climate risks in Bangladesh. Bangladesh need detailed assessments of climatic hazards in different physiographic regions to verify, supplement and update existing information and interpretations of climatic hazards. More research is required to understand cloudburst, flash floods, drought, rainfall variability, heat stress, monsoon strength, groundwater salinity, climate-induced forced migration. Bangladesh should develop and update hazard-specific intensity scales to identify and monitor climatic hazards. Bangladesh should also develop shoreline change planning and update existing coastal zone management strategies to adapt with the future sea-level rise. The public health capacity in Bangladesh need to be enhanced to reduce injuries, mortality and health-related burden due to climatic hazards. Existing institutions for monitoring nationwide climatic hazards need to be strengthened.

  Report/Proceedings
  


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