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Trends of Rainfall and Temperature in Bangladesh: a Comparative Analysis of Cmip5 Results and Meteorological Station Data

Himel Bosu
Department of Meteorology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Towhida Rashid
Department of Meteorology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Abdul Mannan
Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Javed Meandad
Department of Meteorology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset along with rainfall and temperature data, recorded at 34 stations of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), is analyzed to examine the recent changes in rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh during the period 1981-2019. In the historical period, all three CMIP5 models (MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1-M) underestimated the observed mean rainfall data collected from BMD, whereas for temperature the result is found to be nearly similar between model and observation. The result shows a trend of increasing mean maximum temperature of Bangladesh at a rate of 0.19°C and 0.26°C per decade and increasing mean minimum temperature at a rate of 0.18°C and 0.15°C per decade, for model and observation respectively. The study found a decreasing trend of annual rainfall in Bangladesh observed at a rate of 41.60 mm and 39.77 mm per decade, respectively, for model and observation. The spatial distribution shows an increase in annual rainfall in the northeastern part of Bangladesh.

Keywords: Climate change, Rainfall, Temperature, Trends, CMIP5

Location: Bangladesh Meteorological Department

Start Date: 00-00-1981

End Date: 00-00-2019

Program Area: Risk Management in Agriculture

Non-commodity: Climate change

Objectives:

To analyze the distribution of temperature and rainfall and temperature over Bangladesh using the observed data and CMIP5 models generated data.

Methodology:

This research investigation has been carried based on observational and secondary data collected from different sources. Observational data is given huge importance in the research. Observed data of temperature and rainfall were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). For this study, data of temperature and rainfall was collected for 34 stations of BMD during the period 1981-2019. The downscaled CMIP5 GCM model data was downloaded from CCCR- (Centre for Climate Change Research) FTP Server (ftp://cccr.tropmet.res.in/FTPServer/NEXINDOUS_Data/) which are regional data portals for CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) South Asia. This dataset is also known as NEX-GDDP India. The format of the dataset is NetCDF and the spatial resolution of the dataset downloaded from CCCR is 0.25 degrees (~25 km x 25 km). Based on the same ensemble member from the models available at CORDEX for South Asia first 3 models are selected for this study. All the GCM runs for the ensemble member r1i1p1, where, r is realization, i is initialization and p is parameterization. So, the initial state, initial condition, and model physics are the same for all these models. These 3 models are: (i) MPI-ESM- LR (ii) MPI-ESM-MR and (iii) NorESM1-M. This study was conducted on 34 meteorological stations in Bangladesh. These 34 stations were divided into six regions. In the analysis of historical period monthly, seasonal and annual model averages and trends were compared with observed averages and trends for temperature and rainfall during the same period of 1981-2019, as consistent observations were available during this period. The trends of the model outputs and observed data were compared for evaluating the specific model status. The evaluation of the model status was done on the basis of the differences between model outputs and observed data.

Source of Information: The Dhaka University Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 9 (2): 2020

Article Link (Online Journal): DOI: https://doi.org/10.3329/dujees.v9i2.55089

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

This study has established a link of trend comparison through observational data and climate models. The results presented in this study should be useful for climate adaptation strategies for the different regions of Bangladesh. In addition, the results of the study can be useful for conducting climatology studies and climate change impact assessment over Bangladesh.

Knowledge Management: Journal