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Research Detail

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Md. Forhed Bin Khalique
Department of Agribusiness & Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

Sarker Md Touhiduzzaman
Department of Poultry Nutrition and Feed Science, Yangzhou University, Jiangsu, China

Md Shahidul Islam
Department of Plant Pathology, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming, China

Hilarius Murmu
College of Economics & Management, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming, China

Md Rasel
Research Institute of Economics and Management, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China

The aim of the study is to examine the growth performance and profitability of rice production in Bangladesh using the time series data for the period 1981-82 to 2010-11. The study was based on secondary data. Growth rates of area, production, yield and nominal price of three seasons of rice were estimated by fitting exponential trend function. Growth rates of area which were significantly negative for Aus, Aman that were -4.6 percent and -0.3 percent and positive for Boro rice it was 4.5 percent over the whole period. The growth rates of yield for Aus, Aman and Boro were increased significantly at the rate of 2.2, 1.9 and 1.9 percent respectively during the entire time period. The growth rate of production was significantly negative for Aus rice was 2.4 percent and positive for Aman and Boro rice that were 1.6 and 6.3 percent respectively. There was an upward trend observed in nominal price for Aus, Aman and Boro over the period. The short-run and long-run price elasticity of Aus was 0.010 and 0.210 and short-run and long-run elasticity of Aman and Boro rice were 0.091, 0.112 and 0.051 and 0.395 respectively. The short-run responses in rice production are lower than long-run response as indicated by the higher long-run elasticities. The lagged area variable was highly significant in Aus and Boro rice area response equation. Rainfall in sowing period had significant influences in Aus area response equation. Aman has positive influence with the lagged yield and negative with the irrigated area. Policy related to technological advancement, improving varieties, extension services, fertilizer distribution, high yielding variety seeds and production management research may increase the productivity of food grains in Bangladesh.

  Economic analysis, Price elasticity, Price fluctuation, Trend analysis, Rice cultivation, Bangladesh
  In Bangladesh
  00-00-1981
  00-00-2011
  Socio-economic and Policy
  Rice

This study will open a new lens for policy makers for improving the efficiency of rice sector in Bangladesh. This study is not only an initial effort from this perspective but also provide information for future issues. This study is undertaken to examine the growth performance and profitability of rice production in Bangladesh.

A. Selection of Crop and Period Rice is selected for this study given their overwhelming place and importance in Bangladesh. Practically, all crop sector development strategy and investments so far, predominantly surrounded in rice. Some rice seasons are directly competitive with each other to scarce productive resources and therefore, any policy strategy for one is directly linked to the growth and development of the other. The present study covers the time period of 30 years, the latest data available from 1981-82 to 2010-11 which may be an advancement in terms of information analysis. This entire time period is chosen due to initial start of privatization as well as the rest of the time period to capture the effects of an emerging market enterprise economy. In accordance with the objectives 1 and 2, the entire data series was divided into three sub-periods viz. period I, period II and period III. The sub-periods were as follows: 1. Sub-Period I: 1981-82 to 1990-91 (10 years) 2. Sub-Period II: 1991-92 to 2000-01 (10 years) 3. Sub-Period III: 2001-02 to 2010-11 (10 years). 

B. Selection of Price In accordance with the selection of rice crop, appropriate price was chosen. Price has an influence on resources allocation and is more important for policy purposes. In fact, farmers take area allocation decisions with respect to the expected prices prevailing during the post harvest period. In the present study harvest price of rice of three seasons has been used for analysis. Harvest price has been taken into consideration for the reason that wholesale and retail prices may not reflect what the farmers actually receive, because they are set at a considerably higher level than what the farmers get. Moreover, in the case of Bangladesh, farmers sell large portion of their products at immediate post-harvest period prices. So, harvest price is the most relevant price for the producer-farmers.

C. Nature and Sources of Data Times series data of annual harvest price, area, production, yield, agricultural credit disbursement, Boro irrigated area and price of competitive crops and rainfall of three seasons of rice have been used in the present study. The secondary data were collected from various publications of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

D. Processing of Data The data were assembled and processed for further analysis. For disentangling inflationary price rise, price of rice crop were converted into real price by deflating by consumer price index (CPI). For the study period, CPI constitutes three base years for that reason, consumer price index (CPI) was converted into single base year (2005-06) by applying backward splicing. Harvest price of rice during current year was transformed into natural logarithm, one period lag of rice price has been used when regression were run for the current period.

E. Analytical Framework To fulfill the objectives of the study the following analytical framework have been used:

Growth rates in nominal and real price, production, area, and yield of rice crop are estimated for examining the growth performance of the rice crop sector. If the growth rate is not constant but depends on time the compound model cannot describe the actual picture of the growth scenario (Gujarati, 2003). Therefore, before performing growth analysis it was necessary to identify the growth model that best fits the time series data. To know the growth of area, production, yield and price of rice of three seasons in Bangladesh for the period of 1980-81 to 2010-11, the following Exponential model was used.

 

  UIJRT | United International Journal for Research & Technology | Volume 01, Issue 02, 2019 | ISSN: 2582-6832
  
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

The focus of the present study was to examine the growth performance and profitability of rice production in Bangladesh. The study also focuses on analyze the acreage response and estimation of growth rates in area, production, yield and nominal price of rice crop in Bangladesh. The study covered the time period of 1981/82 to 20010/11. The base period was chosen due to the initial start of privatization as well as the rest of the period to capture the effect of the liberalized economy. The study was entirely based on secondary data. Bangladesh has achieved remarkable success in attaining near self-sufficiency in rice production, a strategic staple for the country. The growth in rice production from 1981/82 through 2010/11 as exceeded the growth in population. The increase in rice production has occurred through intensive use of modern technology and under the adverse conditions of falling real rice prices, sharply rising agricultural wage rates, and declining availability of land for cultivation. Inputs relating to seed-fertilizer-irrigation technology and their productivity have been the major source of growth. Liberalizations of the import of agricultural equipment (shallow tube well engines and power tillers), particularly the removal of restrictions on import conditioned by public specification of standards, resulted in a flood of supplies of cheap equipment. Farmers responded enthusiastically to adopt these machines. Competition in fertilizer distribution has kept stable supply at market price.

Therefore, time series data for the period 1981/82 to 2010/11 were employed for this study. Rice is the principal cereal crop. Rice is the largest with an average 71 percent share of the gross output value of crops and total rice crop covers 78.26 percent of the total cropped area. Rice production has doubled since independence without further increase in rice area. Growth rates of area, production, yield and price of rice crops were estimated by fitting exponential function. During the overall study period for the country as a whole, growth rates of area which were negative for Aus, Aman that was 4.6 and 0.3 percent respectively. The areas of Boro increased significantly at the rate of 4.5 percent during the period (1981/82 to 2010/11). The growth rates of yield for Aus, Aman and Boro was increased significantly at the rate of 2.2, 1.9 and 1.9 percent respectively during the entire time period. The contribution of yield to increase production can be considered to be the technological improvement and adoption of technologies by the farmers. Substantial technological progresses have taken place in crop production activities. Increase in production may be attained through increased area allocation from alternative uses and through yield increases. Area and yield increased in Boro which increased the production at the rate of 6.3 percent during the study period (1981/ 82 to 2010/11). Increased growth rate of yield of Aman increased total production at the rate of 1.6 percent while area decreasing significantly at the rate of 0.3 percent. In spite of increasing the yield of Aus, the production of Aus rice deceased during the whole period (1981/82 to 2010/11) due to declining areas of Aus rice crops. The growth rates of nominal price for Aus, Aman and Boro was increased significantly at the rate of 4.2, 4.3 and 4 percent respectively during the entire time period.

  Journal
  


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