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Statistical Analysis of Current Guava Production and Its Prospect in Bangladesh

Sayed Mohibul Hossen
Department of Business Administration, Northern University Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

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Agriculture is an important sector for the overall development of any country like Bangladesh. Guava is a major crop of Bangladesh, which has a significant demand in the local market. In this research, we have made a market study of guava by using time series agricultural data. The aim of the research is to know the cultural practices of guava and to study market model of guava in Bangladesh and to identify the best model that may be used for forecasting purposes. Three models (CLRM, ANCOVA and Log-Lin regression model) have been considered in this study. Ordinary least square (OLS) procedures have been used for estimation purpose. Reliable parameter estimates of the CLRM, ANCO-VA and Log-Lin regression (Shil & Nath, 2008) model with minimum standard errors, high explanatory power have been obtained in this research.

been obtained in this research

Keywords: Guava, Production, Prospect, Bangladesh.

Location: In Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Guava

Objectives:

Hence, this study is mainly concerned with a general overview of supply function, law of supply, factors affecting the supply function and regression analysis used for empirical investigation. Here, we shall also discuss the Dummy variable regression model and Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) model for used in an admixture data (i.e. qualitative and quantitative variables) (Gujrati, D.N; 1972).

Methodology:

A basic economic hypothesis is that for many commodities as price rises, the corresponding quantity supplied rises; as price falls, the quantity supplied also falls. That, is there is a direct relationship between price of the commodity and the quantity supplied. By considering the economic hypothesis in the present research we attempt to construct a market model for gu-ava in Bangladesh with supply model. The specific objectives are, (i) Considering the importance of the guava, we want to know the cultural practices of our agriculturists who produce guava. (ii) We want to study market model of guava in Bangladesh and to identify the best model that may be used for forecasting purpose.

Source of Information: Asian Business Review, Volume 1, Issue 1, September 2012 ISSN 2304-2613

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

price of guava and the quantity supplied

Finally we have concluded that the production of guava in Bangladesh is increasing day by day. The soil and weather condition of our country is good for guava cultivation. From this analysis it is clear that the quantity supplied is responsive to its price. Economic theory suggests that the coefficient of price for supply equation is positive. That is, as expected price rises, the corresponding supply rises. This indicates that there is a direct relationship between the expected price of guava and the quantity supplied.

Knowledge Management: Journal