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Role of Guava to National Economy of Bangladesh: an Empirical Study

Sayed Mohibul Hossen
Senior Lecturer in Statistics, Department of Business Administration, NUB, Bangladesh

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Guava, which is a very delicious fruit, is rich in vitamin C and contains the appreciable amount of vitamin A too. It is also a good source of pectin –a dietary fiber. Different types of favorite dishes are made from guava such as guava jelly, guava syrup, guava cheese, guava roll, etc. Many countries export these types of foods and earn a lot of foreign money. Although Bangladesh is one of the best producers, there is no industry for preserving this fruit. So, all the production become indeed in consumption.The aim of the research is to know the cultural practices of guava in Bangladesh and how to make sweetened guava dishes which can play a vital role to our economy and to identify the best model that may be used for forecasting purposes. The present study attempts to do a statistical analysis of current guava production and its prospect in Bangladesh by considering the various sources of variations on the time-series data for 23 districts of Bangladesh and over a period of 27 years (1981-82 to 2007-08). The study was considered for whole Bangladesh.

Keywords: Guava, Significant, National Economy, Production, Bangladesh

Location: In Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Commodity: Guava

Objectives:

The effects were attributed to the high potassium and soluble fiber content of the fruit (however 1-2 pounds of fruit was consumed daily by the study subjects to obtain these results!). In other animal studies guava leaf extracts have evidenced analgesic, sedative, and central nervous system (CNS) depressant activity, as well as a cough suppressant actions. Fruit or fruit juice has been documented to lower blood sugar levels in normal and diabetic animals and humans. Most of these studies confirm the plant's many uses in tropical herbal medicine systems.(Conde Gracia,E,et al. 2003)

Methodology:

Different kinds of Guava In Bangladesh Mainly two types of guava are cultivated in our country commercially. 1. Kazi Peara (guava) 2. Bari Peara Kazi Peara : Year round high yielding variety fruit weight 445.5 gm, shape pear to round length 9.37 cm, breadth 9.66 cm, skin colour yellowish green flesh colour whitish texture crispy taste slightly sour TSS 8.2-13.2% vitamin c content 202.4 mg/100 g fruit. Shelf life 7-10 days. Yield 84 kg/plant. Released from the horticulture research centre Joydebpur, Gazipur.(BARI, 2003) Bari Peara- 2: Year round high yielding variety fruit weight 240 gm shape roundish length 6.4 cm breadth 7.4 cm skin colour greenish yellow flesh colour whitish texture crispy taste sweet TSS 7.8-12.8%. Shelf life 7 days. Yielding 90kg/plant. Released from the regional horticulture research station Akbarpur , Moulovibazar.(BARI, 2003)

Total cultivated area of guava in six divisions In The graphic representation given below, it is observed that the cultivated area of guava in six divisions is increasing year to year. From the year 2004-05 area is considered only fruit bearing garden so the line represents decreasing from 2004-05. The chart also represents that the highest cultivated division is Dhaka and Chittagong.

It is observed from the graph below that the area wise production of guava is increasing year to year. The highest increase in the area wise production of guava is in the year 2004- 05 and for the next three years, the areas increase gradually and also the production.

Regression analysis: Regression analysis is a branch of statistical theory that is widely used in almost all scientific disciplines. In economics, it is the basic technique for measuring or estimating the relationship among economic variables that constitute the essence of economic theory and economic life. for example, if we know that two variables price (x) and demand (y) are closely related we can find out the most probable value of x for a given value of y or the most probable value of y for a given value of x. similarly, if we know that the amount of tax and the rise in the price of a commodity are closely related, we can find out the expected price for a certain amount of tax levy. With the help of regression analysis, we are in a position to find out the average probable change in one variable given a certain amount of change in another. (Shil & Nath, 2008)

Source of Information: Global Disclosure of Economics and Business, Volume 2, No 2 (2013) ISSN 2305-9168

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

The coefficient of determination R² of the equation is 0.55, which indicates that 55% of the total variation Of the Dependent variable has been explained by the Independent variable. It can be said that the goodness of fit is good on the average. This result also suggests that, if the cultivated area increases thousand hector then production/supply will increases on the average by 1.15 thousand metric ton.

Finally we have concluded that the production of guava in Bangladesh is increasing day by day. The soil and weather condition of our country is excellent for guava cultivation. From this study it is clear that the production is responsive to its area. That is, as expected area rises, the corresponding supply rises. This indicates that there is a direct relationship between expected production of guava and the cultivated area.

Knowledge Management: Journal