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Research Detail

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Derek D. Headey
International Food Policy Research Institute, USA

John Hoddinott
Cornell University, USA

This paper explores agriculture and nutrition linkages in Bangladesh, a country that achieved rapid growth in rice productivity at a relatively late stage in Asia's Green Revolution, as well as unheralded progress against undernutrition. To do so, we first outline a simple conceptual model to identify the different impacts that productivity growth in a food staple(s) might have on child nutrition outcomes, with a particular focus on changes in diets at the household and child level. We then apply this framework to a descriptive overview of the evolution of Bangladesh's food system in recent decades. We show that this evolution is characterized rapid growth in yields and calorie availability, but relatively sluggish diversification in both food production and consumption, despite increasing reliance on imports for dietary diversification. Next, we create a multi-round district-level panel that links changes in nutrition survey data with agricultural sample survey data over 1996–2011, a period in which rice yields rose by more than 70%. We then use this panel to more rigorously test for associations between yield growth and various anthropometric and child feeding indicators. Consistent with our descriptive evidence dietary changes, we find that rice yields predict the earlier introduction of complementary foods to young children (most frequently rice) as well as increases in their weight-for-height, but no improvements in their dietary diversity or height-for-age. Since Bangladesh has one of the highest rates of child wasting in the world, these significant associations between yields and child weight gain are encouraging, but the lack of discernible effects on children's dietary diversity or linear growth is cause for concern. Indeed, it suggests that further nutritional im-pacts will require diversifying the Bangladeshi food basket through both supply and demand-side interventions.

  Nutrition, Diets, Productivity, Yields, Rice, Bangladesh
  In Bangladesh
  
  
  Socio-economic and Policy
  Agriculture, Green revolution, Nutrition

Given the limitations of our data and the lack of existing evidence on agriculture-nutrition linkages in Bangladesh, our concluding remarks cautiously reflect on these findings. One important limitation of our analysis is that our small district-level panel precludes the use of more experimental estimation techniques that might allow us to draw more confident causal inferences. Hence we do not claim to causally identify the nutritional impacts of rice policies and investment per se. This study should instead be viewed as a preliminary exploration into the nutritional impacts of Green Revolution-style agricultural development strategies

3. Background on agricultural development and nutrition in Bangladesh in this section we aim to briefly describe the important role of rice productivity growth in agricultural production in Bangladesh, and how Bangladesh's production and trade characteristics have influenced dietary patterns.3.1. Agricultural production and trade in Bangladesh is characterized by uniquely intensive agricultural pro-duction that largely takes place on very small family farms engaged in multiple cropping seasons. Most of the rural poor are the landless farm or nonfarm laborers, or smallholders (Balagtas et al., 2014; Hossain,2004). For all three groups, rice is an exceptionally important crop. In1997–the start of our period of analysis–rice accounted for two-thirds of the value of food production, and almost 80% of the value of crop production, and around 70% of calorie intake (FAO, 2014). Rice prices have also been shown to be an important determinant of wage rates for unskilled workers in Bangladesh (Ravallion, 1990). Traditionally, rice production utilized relatively low levels of irrigation and other modern inputs. Production was highly seasonal, with the vast majority of production taking place in the monsoonal Aman sea-son, with production in the dry season constrained by lack of water. But like other Asian countries, Bangladesh was to benefit substantially from the research and development of high-yielding varieties (HYVs) and the associated adoption of irrigation and other modern inputs; in short, the so-called Green Revolution package (Ahmed et al., 2000; Hossain et al.,2006; Naher, 1997). Unlike most other Asian economies, however, Bangladesh's Green Revolution got off to a sluggish start. In 1967 the Bangladesh Academy of Rural Development imported the IR8 variety from The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in the Philippines and introduced them in the dry season, while IR20 was introduced in1970 for the wet season. The spread of these varieties was slow in the1970s, delayed by the war of independence and the rebuilding process, as well as the vulnerability of new varieties to pests and disease(Hossain et al., 2006). By the mid-1980s only around 27% of rice area was planted to modern varieties, and yield growth was averaging around 2.2% per annum. The 1990s saw more dramatic changes, however. First, the government progressively liberalized agricultural inputs, particularly the im-ports of small-scale irrigation equipment, including diesel pumps and shallow tube wells (Nazneen et al., 2007). As a result, irrigated area doubled from 1990 to 2010. The great water control afforded by the irrigated boro crop also increased the returns to high-yielding varieties, leading to a rapid acceleration in boro yields. As a result, the share of the once minor boro crop in total production increased from around 15% in the1970s to 58% in 2010. Moreover, while saline-affected coastal areas were initially inhibited in adopting irrigation, these areas have  some expansion in irrigation and HYV adoption since the mid-2000s, particularly with the adoption of more saline-resistant rice varieties(BR40 and BR41).

As a result rice production grew by 80.7% over 1997–2011, or 5.8%per annum, and accounted for 61.4% of total production growth (FAO,2014). To put things in a comparative perspective that rice yields in Bangladesh far outstripped yield growth in India over 1997–2011, thus providing us a with a late Green Revolution experience that overlaps with regular nutritional measurement. Over time there was also some diversification of the Bangladesh pro-duction basket out of rice, though Bangladesh still has one of the least diversified production systems in the world. Per capita production of non-rice foods is much less than in neighboring India. There are various demand and supply-side reasons to explain this lack of diversification. As is well known, dry season irrigation in Bangladesh(and other South Asian countries) has led to a dramatic reduction in the area devoted to pulses. Like India, Bangladesh now primarily relies on pulse imports to meet domestic demand, with imports amounting to70% of consumption (FAO, 2014). Another supply-side factor of some importance is the poor suitability of water-logged soils to non-rice crops (Pingali, 2007), which especially inhibits the production of vegetables and many fruits. Imports of vegetables and fruits from India and China have grown rapidly in Bangladesh and now account for approximately10% of vegetable consumption and 43% of fruit consumption (FAO,2014). Similarly, Bangladesh's high population density also constrain livestock production because of feed constraints, and the country partly relies on milk powder imports, though milk consumption is very low by international standards. Indeed, per capita production of milk, vegetables, fruit and pulses is less than half that of India. Finally, fish is an important consumption item in Bangladesh, not least because of the high micronutrient and protein content of traditional fish varieties especially. Measurement of fish production in Bangladesh is difficult because so much production is not commercial, but it has been hypothesized that traditional fish harvesting declined substantially with the increased use of pesticides and fertilizers and the decline in floodwater area (Shankar et al., 2005). Indeed, from 1980 to 2003 the real price of hilsafish doubled (Sen et al., 2010). In more recent years, however, commercial (specialized) fish farming has grown rapidly, leading to increase fish consumption, albeit of new varieties that tend to be less rich in micronutrients (Bogard et al., 2015).

 

  Agricultural Systems 149 (2016) 122–131
  
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

In this paper, we explored the links between rapid productivity growth in rice production, dietary diversification and changes in the nutritional status and feeding patterns of young children during Bangladesh's impressive late Green Revolution period. We first show that diets in Bangladesh are remarkably undiversified, and have only di-versified slowly during this period of rapid rice intensification. We also find that increases in rice yields have large and statistically significant associations with child weight gain, which appears to be at least partially explained by increased food consumption for young children, particularly the timelier introduction of complementary foods in the critical early window of child development. This potential impact of yields on child weight gain is important–Bangladesh still has one of the highest rates of child wasting in the world–but it is also somewhat disappointing that we were unable to detect any benefit from increasing rice yields on child growth outcom03 empirical tests may not be granular enough to unravel the complex dynamic linkages between yields and linear growth in young children, both our descriptive and econometric evidence does suggest that this may be explained by the very limited dietary diversification in Bangladesh.

These results point towards several potentially important policy implications, though further evidence is still needed to corroborate the linkages hypothesized in this paper. First, we provide strong evidence that delays in the introduction of complementary foods–and most likely, inadequate calorie intake of children - are related to low levels of agricultural productivity and household economic status (assets). Hence, public investments in staple food production would appear to be an important tool for overcoming those constraints, in addition to safety-net programs for poor house-holds, as well as the kinds of behavioral change communications pro-grams typically favored by nutritionists for the improvement of complementary feeding (Dewey and Adu-Afarwuah, 2008).4Second, it is clear from different types of data that diets have diversified very little over a period of rapid productivity growth in the main food staple. A major challenge in Bangladesh is to understand the constraints to dietary diversification and policy options for accelerating di-versification. Examples of potential policy levers include a reorientation of Bangladesh's agricultural R&D portfolio towards more micronutrient-rich crops and livestock products, an increased focus on diversifying production via agricultural extension programs, behavioral change and communication interventions to nudge parents into healthier feed-ing practices, nutrition-sensitive social safety nets to improve the purchasing power of the poorest households (perhaps conditional upon participation in nutritional programs), and interventions to alleviate the many marketing bottlenecks that inhibit both domestic production and domestic and international trade of perishable nutrient-rich foods in particular (e.g. lack of cold storage, inadequate infrastructure, regulatory burdens to trade). Assessing the effectiveness of these types of policies and programs accelerating diversification towards healthier and more nutrient-rich diets would seem to be an important area for future research.

  Journal
  


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