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Md Monirul Islam
Department of Fisheries, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh

Climate variability and change are predicted to impact on coastal and marine smallscale fisheries and dependent communities. They have been adapted to the normal range of climate variability and its impacts, but additional adaptation will be required to address the increased impacts of climate change. Migration is regarded as one strategy to adapt to these impacts but debates surround its successfulness. Fishing communities can adapt in many ways and migration is one example. However, limits and barriers can prevent adaptation being successful or reduce vulnerability. Studies on vulnerability, adaptation and limits and barriers to adaptation are therefore preconditions for the fishing communities to develop effective adaptation strategies to face climate variability and change. Despite considerable studies on the impact of climate change on aquatic ecosystems and fish stocks, the macro scale fishery-dependent economies and their people, and on vulnerability and adaptation in agricultural communities, there has been an insufficient examination of the vulnerability and adaptation of small-scale fishing communities to climate variability and change. This thesis, therefore, assesses the vulnerability and adaptation to the impacts of climate variability and change, in three small-scale coastal fishing communities in Bangladesh. Using a mixed method approach, particular focus is given to the assessment of livelihood vulnerability, the investigation of the outcomes of climate-induced migration, and the exploration of limits of and barriers to adaptation. Results highlight that the level of livelihood vulnerability not only differs between communities but also between different household groups within a community, depending on their level of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Exposure to floods and cyclones; sensitivity (such as dependence on small-scale marine fisheries for livelihoods); and lack of adaptive capacity in terms of physical, natural and financial capital and diverse livelihood strategies construe livelihood vulnerability in different ways depending on the context. Results show that the most exposed community is not necessarily the most sensitive or least able to adapt because livelihood vulnerability is a result of combined but unequal influences of biophysical and socio-economic characteristics of communities and households. Within a fishing community, where households are similarly exposed, higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity combine to create higher vulnerability. Migration may be a viable strategy to respond to climate variability and change. Results show that migration has generated several positive outcomes for households that resettled. The resettled households are now less exposed to floods, sea level rise and land erosion than those who stayed behind. They have also more livelihood assets and better access to them. They enjoy higher incomes, better health, better access to water supply, health and educational services, technology and markets than the households who remained in their original settlement. The thesis also establishes that fishing communities face multiple limits and barriers to adaptation of fishing activities to cyclones, however. Limits include physical characteristics of climate and sea, such as higher frequency and duration of cyclones, and hidden sandbars. Barriers include technologically poor boats, inaccurate weather forecasts, poor radio signals, lack of access to credit, low incomes, underestimation of cyclone occurrence, coercion of fishermen by the boat owners and captains, lack of education, skills and livelihood alternatives, unfavorable credit schemes, lack of enforcement of fishing regulations and maritime laws, and lack of access to fish markets. These local and wider scale factors interact in complex ways and constrain completion of fishing trips, coping with cyclones at sea, safe return of boats from sea, timely responses to cyclones and livelihood diversification. Overall, this thesis contributes empirical evidence to current debates in the literature on climate change by enhancing an understanding of the characteristics and determinants of livelihood vulnerability, migration as an adaptation strategy and limits and barriers to the adaptation of fishing communities to climate variability and change. The findings of this thesis form the basis for further detailed research into the vulnerability and adaptation of small-scale fishing communities to climate variability and change. Based on the above findings, this thesis also provides some suggestions for reducing vulnerability and for developing effective adaptation strategies.

  Fishery-based livelihoods, Climate change, Households, Fishing, Fishing communities
  In Bangladesh
  
  
  Socio-economic and Policy
  Climate change, Livelihood, Fish farming

To achieve this aim, the specific objectives are to: 1) to assess the vulnerability of fishery-based livelihoods to the impacts of climate variability and change in two fishing communities and their households; 2) to examine how climate-induced permanent migration has impacted vulnerability and adaptation of a fishing community by comparing with the residual of its original community, in order to shed light on the viability of migration as a strategy to address climate change; and 3) to identify and characterize limits and barriers to the adaptation of fishing activities to cyclones and examine interactions between them in two fishing communities.

Bangladesh is a sub-tropical developing country, bordered to the west, north and east by India, to the south-east by Myanmar, and to the south by the Bay of Bengal with a 480km long coastline. It has made considerable economic strides in the past two decades. It is on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goals of halving extreme poverty by 2015. Poverty among the population has declined from 57 percent in 1990 to 31.5 percent in 2010 (World Bank, 2013b). Average GDP growth over the last nine years was more than 6 percent (World Bank, 2013b). The population growth rate has also slowed down markedly from 2.9 percent in 1974 to 1.34 percent in 2011 (BBS, 2011a). Nonetheless, Bangladesh is regarded as one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world (IPCC, 2007a; Yu et al., 2010b; Maplecroft, 2011; Met Office, 2011; World Bank, 2013a). Its vulnerability is due not only to its physiographic and climatic conditions but also to its socioeconomic conditions, poor infrastructure and high livelihood dependence on natural resources. According to the Met Office (2011), Bangladesh has experienced widespread warming (0.24°C per decade during the hot season of March to May and 0.19°C per decade during the cool season of December to February) and a small increase in total precipitation since 1960. This study also observed several temperature and precipitation extreme events in the last 5 decades. Although this study observed a long-term trend of temperature extremes, no evidence of a long term trend of precipitation extremes (i.e., continuous wet or dry days) was observed. Between the years 1985-2009 an increased rate of sea surface temperature (0.0086°C to 0.0191°C annually) was found in the Bay of Bengal (Chowdhury et al., 2012). Other studies (Mirza and Dixit, 1997; Khan et al., 2000; Mirza, 2002 ) found an increase in temperature of about 1°C in May and 0.5°C in November (from 1985 to 1998), and decadal rain anomalies above long term averages since the 1960s in Bangladesh. Shahid (2010) observed an increase in annual and premonsoon rainfall as 5.53 and 2.47 mm/year, respectively, over the period 1958-2007. Bangladeshis have a long tradition of fishing and fish culture which contribute significantly to employment, income generation, export earnings and human nutrition. This sector supports livelihoods of about 7 million fishers directly and 12 million people indirectly and contributes 4.43% to GDP and 2.73% to export earnings (DoF, 2012). Most (93%) of the marine fishing is small-scale in nature and supports the livelihoods of over half a million fishers and their household members (DoF, 2012) living in 870 fishing communities (Aghazadeh, 1994). Although no recent data is available, the number of coastal fishing communities is frequently claimed as more than 2000 in the media. In addition, marine fisheries support the livelihoods of other households involved in ancillary activities such as fish processing, gear making and so on. This study follows a mixed-method approach of data collection. Quantitative methods (e.g., structured household questionnaires) were used mainly for collecting data on context, whereas qualitative methods (e.g., oral history interviews, vulnerability matrices, key informants interviews and FGDs) were used to get rich, detailed and contextually grounded data (Nightingale, 2003). Quantitative data were analysed in two stages – after finishing the collection of structured household questionnaires data and after finishing all data collection. During the first stage, cluster analysis of the households was conducted and during the second stage composite vulnerability indices, normalization, Spearman’s rank correlation, ttest, z-test, ANOVA and descriptive statistics were carried out. Cluster analysis is described here in detail but other methods are detailed in the later chapters. This chapter has described the research design and methodology. It highlights methodological approaches including suitability of the case-study approach for this research. It also describes the study context and justifies the site selection process. Methods used for data collection have been described, including reflection upon their strengths and limitations. Issues such as the positionality of the researcher and ethical considerations have also been considered. The various techniques of quantitative data analysis have been mentioned and cluster analysis has been described in detail. The qualitative data analysis technique has also been described in detail. Throughout this chapter reliability and validity, or trustworthiness, rigor and quality of this research have been considered.

  Report for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, The University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, November 2013
  DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20652.90246
Funding Source:
1.   Budget:  
  

This review identifies that vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change are important research areas, especially at the local scale of small-scale fishery systems in developing countries. Most studies on climate variability and change, and fisheries, have focussed on documenting trends and fluctuations in fish abundance and distribution, and its impact on the marine ecosystem (Cushing, 1982; Glantz and Feingold, 1992; Cheung et al., 2009; Brander, 2010; Drinkwater et al., 2010). They focus mainly on large-scale industrial fisheries. Some of the studies have investigated the impact of climate change on the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the fisheries sector and dependent communities at the macro scale (e.g., national) (McClanahan et al., 2008; Allison et al., 2009b). But the macro-scale study cannot provide specific findings applicable to the local or community level (Hahn et al., 2009). There are agriculture-based vulnerability and adaptation assessments to climate change at the local level (e.g., Vincent, 2007; Eakin and Bojórquez-Tapia, 2008; Paavola, 2008; Sallu et al., 2010; Antwi-Agyei et al., 2012a), which are different from fishery-based ones. There is a lack of understanding of vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change in fishery systems as only a limited number of studies have focussed on these (e.g., Coulthard, 2008; Badjeck et al., 2010), which has prevented the development of effective adaptation strategies (FAO, 2008). This study aims to contribute to this. The review also shows that assessment of vulnerability is facing some challenges including methods of vulnerability assessment, and determinants and characteristics of vulnerability especially at the local scale of fisheries systems. Objective 1 of this thesis seeks to contribute here. The review also indicates that many studies have investigated drivers of climate-induced migration in coastal (including fishing) and other communities. Few of them have examined how climate-induced migration has impacted on livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation of migrants, based on views and perceptions, rather than on empirical evidence. Moreover, none of them examined climate-induced migration from coastal fishing communities. This research contributes to this part of the scholarship (Objective 2). The review further identifies that empirical studies on limits and barriers to adaptation to climate change have been published in the biological, agronomic, economic, sociological, psychological, and urban planning literature. Few studies have focussed on the limits and barriers to adaptation and interaction among them in the fisheries sector. This study also seeks to contribute to this part of the scholarship (Objective 3).

  Report/Proceedings
  


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