Dr. Md. Rezaul Karim
Senior Scientific Officer
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur
Moniruzzaman
Scientific Officer
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur
S. Hossain
Chief Scientific Officer
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur
The study was conducted in two consecutive years 2010-2011and 2011-2012 in eight districts namely Patuakhali, Barguna, Bhola, Lakshmipur, Satkhira, Jhalokati, Khulna and Pirojpur districts respectively under the AEZs 13, 14, 17 and 18 to analyze the climate scenario and the economic impact of climate change on crop production in Southern zone of Bangladesh, using the Ricardian function. Average crop net revenue was obtained from 800 hundred sample farmers at taka 56614 per hectare. The mean temperature was increased to 0.75 0C within 36 years i.e from 1975 to 2010. It witnessed that the rise of 10C temperature requires 45 years. The rainfall was decreasing in Rabi and Kharif 1 season except Kharif 2. But the yearly total rainfall was increased by 0.12 percent i.e. only 70 mm from 1975 to 2010. The inverse relationship was found between temperature and rainfall. The variability of rainfall was found irregular over the season as well as over the months. The highest marginal loss was estimated at taka 3009 million due to rise in temperature. The total loss of taka 7584 million was estimated whereas per hectare loss was at taka 6482 due to four climatic variables in the study area.
Economic impact, climate change, crop production, Southern zone.
Patuakhali, Barguna, Bhola, Lakshmipur, Satkhira, Jhalokati, Khulna and Pirojpur districts
(a) To analyze the climate scenario,
(b) To assess the economic impact of climate change on crop production in Southern zone of Bangladesh, using the Ricardian function, and
(c) To inform policy-makers on proper adaptation options to counteract the harmful effects of such change
Both primary and secondary data were used for the study. The primary data were related to the crop production at farm level and the secondary data were related to the district wise temperature and rainfall for the period of 1975 to 2010 collected from the various issues of the statistical year book of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). From the primary data, net revenue was calculated for each of the eight districts of Southern zone namely Patuakhali, Barguna, Bhola, Lakshmipur, Satkhira, Jhalokati, Khulna and Pirojpur respectively. A total of 800 farmers taking 100 farmers from each district were selected with the help of DAE personnel for interview. Further more sixten upazilas were scrutinized from eight districts. The eight upazilas namely Sadar, Dumki and Baufal of Patuakhali district, two upazilas namely Sadar and Amtoli of Barguna district, three upazilas namely Sadar, Charfesson and Barhanuddin of Bhola district, two upazilas namely Ramgati and Komol Nagar of Lakshmipur, two upazilas namely Kaliganj and Asasuni of Satkhira, one upazila namely Kathalia of Jhalohati, two upazilas namely Koyra and Dacope of Khulna and one upazila namely Matbaria of Pirojpur district respectively were selected for collecting primary data on crop production from the farmers. Ricardian type of net revenue function was used to estimate the related climatic parameters to quantify the extent of negative/positive effect.
Annual Research Report 2011-2012, Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur
All the land was categorized as medium high land under the AEZ 13, 14, 17 and 18 characterized with rainfed agriculture. The farmer of the area cultivated all the crops in three different cropping seasons. But the eight major crops were vegetables, mungbean, Khesari, soybean, groundnut, chili, T.Aus and T.Aman rice respectively. As many as twelve different cropping patterns were found. The mean temperature was increased to 0.75 0C with in 34 years (1975 to 2010). Therefore, rise of 10C temperature requires 45 years. The rainfall was decreased in Rabi and Kharif 1 season except Kharif 2. But the total rainfall was increased by 0.12 percent i.e. 70 mm from 1975 to 2010. The inverse relationship was found between temperature and rainfall. The variability of rainfall was found irregular over the season as well as over the months. The renovation programmes were opined to be irregular and poor for embankment, roads, culvert and bridge respectively. The marginal impact was calculated using the equation 2. The highest marginal loss was at taka 3009 million was due to rising temperature followed by higher flooding depth, lower flooding depth and rainfall respectively. The total loss was at taka 7584 million due to four climatic variables. On an average, per hectare loss was found to be taka 6482 in the study area.
Report/Proceedings