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Ex- Ante Impact Analysis of Shatabdi Variety of Wheat

Md. Rezaul Karim
Senior Scientific Officer
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur

M. A. Baset
Principal Scientific Officer
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur

Q. Mesbahul Alam
Chief Scientific Officer and Head
Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

An-Ex-ant rate of return analysis for estimating the future returns from Shatabdi variety of wheat was conducted during 2005-06 using Alston et. al., (1995) spreadsheet method. It was found that the Ex-ante IRR to the total investment of Shatabdi variety of wheat research and extension was 44 percent and the efficiency index was 17:1. Under various assumptions of shifter, expenditures, yield change, rate of adoption, elasticities and exogenous growth rate, the magnitude of IRR varied from 35 to 85 percent and the magnitude of efficiency index varied from 12:1 to 160:1. Therefore, the variety Shatabdi would be an outstanding contributing variety for increasing wheat production and sustaining self-sufficiency in the future.

Keywords: Impact, Rate of return, Shatabdi, Wheat

Location: Secondary data

Start Date: 01-07-2005

End Date: 01-06-2006

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Market analysis, Seasonality in production

Objectives:

1. To estimate the future rate of return of the Shatabdi variety of wheat

2. To provide information to policy markers, donor agencies and research managers about the future contribution of Shatabdi variety.

Methodology:

Ex-ante economic surplus approach under small open economy model was considered. The method developed by Alson et. al. (1995) was applied in this analysis. Internal rate of return (IRR), Present value of net benefit (NPVB) and Present value of research costs were calculated in this study.

Source of Information: Annual Research Report 2006, Agricultural Economics Division, BARI, Gazipur

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

On farm demonstration trial by Wheat Research Center (WRC) received the mean yield of Kanchan at 2830.5 kg/ha and the yield of Shatabdi was found 3284.5 kg/ha. Price elasticity of wheat was found to be 0.596. The production growth rate of wheat from 1971-72 to 2003-04 was 6.34%. It was found that the Ex-ante IRR to the total investment of Shatabdi variety of wheat research and extension was 44 percent and the efficiency index was 17:1. The IRR of 44 percent means that on an average, each taka invested in wheat research and extension returned 44 paisa annually from the data of the initial investment. The benefit cost ratio was estimated to be 17:1. Therefore, the variety Shatabdi would be an outstanding contributing variety for increasing wheat production and sustaining self-sufficiency in the future.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings