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Map of Nearly Assured Monthly Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Bangladesh

DR. D.N.R. Poul
CSO and Head
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI, Gazipur

Md.Shahjahan Kabir
SSO
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI, Gazipur

Manotosh Howlader
PSO
Agricultural Statistics Division, BRRI, Gazipur

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

The probability distribution of both of monthly average maximum and monthly average minimum temperatures in Bangladesh can be graduated by Pearson Type I distribution.Surface for the nearly assured monthly average temperature (⁰C) over the country has been constructed for each of the months from May to October. As Pearson Type I was found to be better than Normal distribution in most of the cases for graduating probability distribution of average monthly maximum and minimum temperature, it was used to estimate the nearly assured monthly average temperature (i.e., minimum value of monthly average temperature at 90% probability level) for each of the selected months and for all 30 weather stations of BMD. These estimates were used to create the surface for the nearly assured monthly average temperature (⁰C) of Bangladesh for each of the months from May to October and are designated as maps of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures.

Keywords: Temperature, BMD, IDW, ArcView and Spatial analysis

Location: All districts of Bangladesh

Start Date: 30-06-2002

End Date: 31-12-2003

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Temperature

Objectives:

To determine best fitted probability distribution for monthly maximum and minimum temperature and
To construct maps of nearly assured monthly maximum and minimum temperatures in Bangladesh.

Methodology:

Normal distribution and Pearson Type I distribution were examined as the probable candidates to identify the best fitted model for graduating the probability distribution of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature for the months from May to October. Data from 15 weather stations of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) where minimum of 30 years’ daily maximum and minimum temperature were available. Goodness of fit was judged by statistical test. After choosing the appropriate distribution, monthly average temperatures with 90% probability were computed by solving the equation for x, where are the estimates of the parameters. These estimate of temperature thus obtained was treated as nearly assured monthly average temperature. These estimates at 30 weather stations of BMD were used to construct the surfaces of nearly assured monthly minimum and maximum temperature for the months from May to October in Bangladesh. ARCView 2.1 spatial analyst was used to create the surface following Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) interpolation module.

Source of Information: BRRI Annual Report 2003-2004

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Government

Budget: 200000

Total Budget (Tk.) : 200000

Achievement/Findings:

Probability distribution of monthly maximum and monthly minimum temperatures can be graduated by Pearson Type I distribution in Bangladesh. The maps created for the nearly assured (at 90% probability) monthly maximum and minimum temperature constructed for the months from May to October based on Pearson Type I probability distribution can be used to estimate the monthly maximum and minimum temperature at any location in Bangladesh.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings