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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Wheat and Maize Production in Bangladesh Using Info Crop Model

Dr. M. A. Hossain
SSO
ASICT Division,BARI,Gazipur-1701

A.F.M. T. Islam
SO
ASICT Division,BARI,Gazipur-1701

Dr. M. S. Islam
PSO
ASICT Division,BARI,Gazipur-1701

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

Weather and climate changes are key factors in agriculture productivity- of Bangladesh. This study was taken to assess the future climate change trend as well as to assess the effect of these changes on wheat and potato production using crop growth model. In this study, the trends of changes in temperature and precipitation patterns in dry season (November-April) have been assessed through analysis of data on temperature, solar radiation and precipitation for the period 1976-2005. Future climate scenarios were assessed for the year 2030, 2050 and 2070. Analysis of the monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures at Dinajpur showed the increasing trendfor all months of dry season except January and November respectively. Total rainfall during dry period showed the variation in trend at as well. From the future prediction analysis of the year 2030,2050 and 2070, it was observed that both the maximum and minimum monthly temperature were increasing trends except January. Almost same climatic scenarios were observed for the Bogra district as well. DSSAT v4. 0 crop model simulated results showed that the yield of wheat variety BARl Gom 24 (Prodip) at Dinajpur district would be decreased for the year 2030, 2050 and 2070 under these changed climatic condition. Yield reductions due to higher temperatures could substantially undermine future global food security. Therefore adaptation strategies need to be considered now to prevent substantial yield losses in crops from future global warming.

Keywords: InfoCrop,Solar radiation,IPC, Wheat, Maize

Location:

Start Date: 07-07-2012

End Date: 08-05-2014

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Impact

Objectives:

i.To predict climate scenarios (e.g., temperature, rainfall) for the year 2025, 2050, 2075

ii.To assess the climate change impact on wheat and maize production using InfoCrop model

Methodology:

Different aspects of climate change in Bangladesh will be assessed through analysis of historical data on temperature and precipitation. The temperature, humidity, solar radiation and precipitation data will be collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). The average weekly/monthly data will be used for the trend analysis. Model predictions of climate scenarios for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 was developed. Data required for running the InfoCrop modeling system include climate/weather data soil data (i.e. pH, soil salinity) and crop management data (i.e. planting date, fertilizer doses, irrigation requirement), etc.were collected from selected locations. Predicted yield of wheat and maize under the changes of different climatic scenarios and IPCC assumptions of the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 for the Rabi season using InfoCrop crop growth model.

Source of Information: Annual report 2013, BARI

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1.	Budget: 1,00,000/-

Total Budget (Tk.) : 1,00,000/-

Achievement/Findings:

Wheat and maize yield of wheat variety BARl Gom 24 (Prodip) at Dinajpur district would be decreased for the year 2030, 2050 and 2070 under these changed climatic condition. Yield reductions due to higher temperatures could substantially undermine future global food security. Therefore adaptation strategies need to be considered now to prevent substantial yield losses in crops from future global warming.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings