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Impacts of Enso Events on Rice Production in Bangladesh

Dr. J. K. Biswas
Director (Admin and common service)
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur-1701

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

More or less a chain of event relationship (previous years SSTA, previous year rainfall and next year Boro rice production and area coverage) only for Boro (irrigated rice) season. The June-October-October SSTA (ENSO) have quite significant negative impact on the same year November rainfall. The regression equation reveals that 1⁰C rise of SSTA from June to October is supposed to reduce November rainfall from 17 mm to 28 mm. Therefore it appears that (Previous year) ENSO has significant influence on the next year Boro (November-May crop) rice through November rainfall. A degree of previous year SSTA increase for June, July and August would decrease 3.6%, 3.8%, and 2.5% of the next year Boro total production respectively. These values (next year Boro production) due to September and October previous year SSTA were 2.2% and 2.5% respectively. The corresponding (next year) area reductions due to June, July, August and September previous year SSTA were 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0% respectively. The (next year) area reduction due to the September and October previous year SSTA were 3.8% and 3.79% respectively. The SSTA effect on area coverage was stronger compared to that of total production. However, no similar relationship is observed between SSTA and yield.

Keywords: ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), Rice, Production, Meteorological, Rainfall etc.

Location: Plant Physiology Division, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, Gazipur-1701

Start Date: 01-07-2009

End Date: 30-06-2010

Program Area: Socio-economic and Policy

Non-commodity: Rice, Performance

Objectives:

The goal of this research is to explore the relationship between ENSO and rice production system (with respect to growing season) as a whole for Bangladesh.

Methodology:

For this study, no ecological disagrregation was considered. There are 35 meteorological stations all over the country. Average rainfall data were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Dhaka. SSTA across the Nino-3.4 region (170⁰W to 120⁰W and 5⁰N to 5⁰S) from (NOAA, 2010) from 1972 to 2007. The range was considered as a few rainfall data were missing over that period. The missing data were adjusted considering the average value over the years. Rice (Aus, T. Aman and Boro) production data (converted to coarse rice: Paddy) on area coverage, yield and total production data of high yielding as well as local varieties (collected from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) over the years from 1972 to 2007 were used to observe the relationship. The third degree polynomial relationship were considered for detrending the actual data. The percent deviations with respect to original and trend data were estimated as: [(actual-trend)/trend] (Roberts et al, 2009). In order to observe the ENSO effect on rice (percent deviation of production, yield and area) first we tried to find out the relationship between rainfall (country as a whole) and ENSO. Then we observed the relationship between rainfall and rice (production, yield and area). Last of all, the relationship between ENSO and rice (production, yield and area) was observed.

Source of Information: Proceedings of the BRRI Annual Internal Review for 2009- 2010)

Article Link (Online Journal):

Funding Source:

1. Government

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

November rainfall was significantly and negatively correlated with June, July, August, September and October, SSTA value of year t. There was a significant relationship between March and April SSTA with February rainfall. According to regression equation 1⁰C increase of SSTA in June, July and August appeared to reduce 28.53 mm, 27.01mm and 22.35 mm of rainfall in November. The corresponding reduction of rainfall due to September and October SSTA were 20.45 mm and 17.13 mm respectively. ENSO had both negative and positive impact on the Boro season. But the negative influence was quite significant compared to those of positive influences. Despite little rainfall in both November and February, may play an important role for the Boro rice crop. Aus rice was hardly related with the rainfall may be due to its sharp decreasing trend of area coverage and total production. At the same time no meaningful relation was observed with its rainfall (April to July) to any of the previous month SSTA. Aman total production was reasonably related to October rainfall. But there was no relationship between October rainfall and SSTA of any of the preceding months like July, August, September. Only Boro total production and area coverage could yield some information in this context. Boro total production was negatively and significantly related to only November (t-1) rainfall. And This November rainfall was related to July, August, September and October SSTA values of the same year. Boro area coverage was also related to those SSTA values in the same way. The corresponding area reductions June, July, August, September were 5.0%, 4.9%, and 4.0% respectively. The area reduction for the September and October SSTA were 3.8% and 3.7% respectively. The ENSO effect on area coverage was stronger compared to those of total production.

Knowledge Management: Report/Proceedings